West Virginia let Cincinnati back into a game the Mountaineers should have owned, and the Bearcats were poised to steal an appearance in the Big East Tournament semifinals until Da’Sean Butler made two All-Big East plays.

First, with 6.4 seconds left and Cincinnati in-bounding in a tied game, Butler harassed the receiver of the in-bounds pass, Cincinnati guard Dion Dixon, to force a turnover. Then, with 3.1 seconds left, Butler took Devin Ebanks’ pass about 22-feet from the basket, squared his feet and fired a fallaway directly off the backboard. It caromed in as the buzzer sounded for a 54-51 victory, and all of the ugly offense and squandered leads were momentarily forgotten in the rush of victory.

“When I got the ball, [Lance Stephenson] kind of pressed up on me. So, I kind of lost my balance, and by the time I squared up, I only had time to take one dribble,” said Butler. “I felt good. I saw it hit the glass. I said, ‘Oh, it’s fine.’”

“I was all over him,” said Stephenson. “Nothing I could do — I actually fouled him.”

“Yancy [Gates] doubled him,” added Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin. “We didn’t guard Ebanks. We knew they were going to [Butler]. We put two guys on him. He dribbled away from the double-team, and he got lucky.”

West Virginia’s win put a big Band-Aid over an ugly performance. Learning a lesson from the three higher-seeded teams that had preceded them with losses, the Mountaineers appeared ready to blow Cincinnati out of the gym with an 18-4 start after the game’s first 13 possessions. It wasn’t until the 9:16 mark of the first half that Cincinnati finally made its first field goal, a reverse layup by Stephenson, who led all scorers with 19. West Virginia was getting defensive rebounds off of Cincy’s misses, which is the best way to stop a team that rarely makes its first shot.

“We didn’t want to end up like them,” said sophomore Kevin Jones in reference to Syracuse, Villanova and Pittsburgh, who all lost prior to West Virginia’s tip. “That’s why we came out, played hard, played the way we did. We kind of slacked off a little bit towards the end of the half.”

After the brilliant start,, West Virginia went cold, and Cincinnati took advantage. Stephenson’s basket was the start of a 19-5 UC run that nearly closed out the half. Larry Davis’ 3-pointer from the right side off of Cashmere Wright’s nice penetration capped the run and evened the score at 23. Only a Jonnie West 3-pointer at the first-half buzzer — a harbinger of things to come — gave West Virginia the halftime lead.

The second half saw Cincinnati hang around thanks to committing just three turnovers — until Dixon’s muff. The Bearcats’ ability to hold on to the ball after eight first-half giveaways enabled them to attempt shots and go after the rebound. After West Virginia held UC to just four offensive boards in the first, the Bearcats had 10 in the second half. If Cincinnati could have made more than 12-of-37 (32.4 percent) 2-pointers, it might have held the lead down the stretch rather than having to scramble from behind.

West Virginia was nagged on Thursday by a recurring and ominous shooting problem. The Mountaineers made just three of their first 19 3-point attempts — before Butler’s banker — and they were willing to settle for the outside look too often against Cincinnati’s mix of man-to-man and 2-3 zone.

“We were just standing still a lot when they went zone,” said Butler. “When they went man, we just didn’t pass the ball. Instead of passing the ball and doing the things that got us the lead, we kind of strayed away from that and were making two passes and taking quick shots.”

It’s West Virginia’s inconsistent shooting and willingness to settle for the jumpshot that could cost it dearly in the NCAA Tournament. A shooting performance like the one it had on Thursday anytime after the NCAA Tournament’s first round will likely lead to an undignified exit.

“I thought we would make more shots than we did, honestly,” said West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins. “They change defenses and really packed it in the lane and didn’t give us anything easy. We struggled to make shots. Then, when you struggle to make shots on the perimeter, they pack it back in.”

Despite the poor shooting — WVU’s effective field-goal percentage for the game was a team Big East-low at 38.3 — the Moutaineers opened up a nine-point advantage, 47-38, with 5:42 to go. Jones’ 11 second-half points had West Virginia back on the brink of putting Cincinnati away.

Instead, Cincy struck back with a 9-0 run to tie it. With West Virginia now in a 1-3-1 zone, Darnell Wilks found Gates for an easy deuce; then Stephenson hit a teardrop in the lane to make the score 47-42. On the next possession, Stephenson penetrated and found Deonta Vaughn in the corner for a big three, one of three he hit on the night. Cincinnati stopped West Virginia, and Stephenson again penetrated but missed the shot. Wilks and Gates, though, both skied for the rebound, and Gates was credited with the tip in that tied the score at 47 with 2:48 to play.

Jones struck back with a 12-footer in the lane to give the ‘Neers their lead back. Stephenson made 1-of-2 from the foul line at the other end, and WVU extended its lead to three when Butler — prone in the lane — found Jones for a lay-in to narrowly beat the shotclock buzzer with 1:07 to play.

“I lost the ball and fell on top of it,” said Butler. “I picked the ball up, and Kevin’s man happened to run towards me. I kind of leaned over to the left and passed it to him. Thank God he caught it.”

Up by three and still in the 1-3-1 zone, West Virginia allowed Stephenson to catch the ball on the right wing with an open look at the basket. The 20-percent 3-point shooter drilled the longball to tie the score at 51 with 42.1 seconds left.

“We were trying to get the open shot, and I was the open person,” said Stephenson. “I couldn’t let my team down, so I had to hit the shot.”

WVU got the ball back and worked the shotclock, but the offensive stagnated and Ebanks forced up a tough runner that drew no rim and led to a shotclock violation with 6.4 seconds left.

That set up the fateful in-bounds and turnover for Dixon — just three days removed from an ankle sprain he suffered in practice — and the dagger from Butler.

“He just got in a hurry,” said Cronin of Dixon’s miscue. “He was out of control before he even put it on the floor. I feel bad for him. He’s devastated right now.”

Thanks to their ability to capitalize on Dixon’s mistake, Butler and his mates advances to the semifinals on Friday to play Notre Dame. The Irish led West Virginia by 20 at the half in their Jan. 9 matchup but had to hold on for a 70-68 win. Of course, that Notre Dame team and the one Huggins will prepare his team to face on Friday are far different.

“I think Mike has done an unbelievable job,” said Huggins of Notre Dame’s late-season transformation into a ball-control team after Luke Harangody’s injury. “They’re not very deep, so they shorten the game. It’s smart — he’s got a bunch of guys that can make shots.”

The matchup between the Irish and Mountaineers will follow Georgetown and Marquette in the Big East semifinals. The Golden Eagles defeated the Hoyas, 62-59, in Milwaukee on Jan. 6. The first game is set to tip at 7 p.m. ET.

“We got the tempo we wanted,” said Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey. “50-45 — that’s what we want.”

And that’s what Brey and the Irish got.

With just 50 offensive possessions for each team, this was the slowest-paced Big East game all season, edging the 51-possession game when Notre Dame faced Pittsburgh the first time on Feb. 26, the first of now six straight that the Irish have won. During most of Notre Dame’s offensive possessions, the Irish were satisfied to merely pass the ball around the perimeter, rarely even looking at the basket until the shotclock hit single digits.

In the second half, the slow pace joined with poor shooting and shoddy ball-handling as the two teams combined for just 11 made field goals (the Irish only attempted 13 shots in the final 20). At the under-four timeout, the second-half score was 11-10, Notre Dame. It had been just two days since Seton Hall and Providence combined for 215 points in the very same timeslot, but that now seemed like an entirely different sport.

Notre Dame maintained a lead of one to five points throughout the second half thanks to neither team’s ability to make a shot. Pittsburgh was particularly vexed by turnovers, an egregious error against a Notre Dame team that rarely tries to force them. Indeed, many of Pittsburgh’s five turnovers in a 13-possession span in the middle of the second half were unforced.

“We probably have more energy to play because we don’t have to guard as many possessions throughout the game,” concluded Brey about his team’s newfound passion for defense while playing a slower pace. “And we’re confident, because we’re getting stops in a shorter number of possessions. … I think there’s a commitment, too — maybe a renewed commitment. Our interior defense and ball-screen defense has been the most consistent since I’ve been here.”

“I think we did a pretty good job of attacking them and driving for kickouts or driving to the lane and feeding our big men,” said senior guard Jermaine Dixon. “We just didn’t make the shots we usually make.”

Among those who didn’t make shots was Big East Most Improved Player Ashton Gibbs. The sophomore didn’t miss many shots, but he was simply not involved in the offense. After averaging cktk ppg this season, Gibbs had just four points on 2-of-4 shooting in 33 minutes. His disappearing act did not help a Pittsburgh offense that needed someone to make shots.

Pittsburgh’s lapses in concentration and wayward shooting allowed Notre Dame to maintain the lead despite scoring just five points from a Tim Abromaitis foul-line leaner with 14:26 to play until Tory Jackson hit the biggest shot of the game with 3:24 to play.

The Panthers had just pulled to within 43-40 on a Dixon free throw, and Notre Dame was doing their now-typical perimeter routine of passing until the shotclock wound down. Jackson found himself 30 feet from the basket and with just a handful of seconds to shoot. He made a quick move to get his shooting hand free and then banked in a 24-footer to double the Notre Dame lead. With that shot, ND had all the points it would need.

“They seemed to make shots at the end of the clock, and they executed well,” admitted Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon. “We need to do a better job.”

Brad Wanamaker did his best to bring the Panthers back in the closing minutes. After Jackson’s three, the junior drove and drew a foul by Carleton Scott. Wanamaker hit both free throws to close the gap to four. Two possessions later, Wanamaker’s stumbling finish brought the Panthers to within two at 47-45 with 1:38. Pittsburgh’s coaches wanted the bonus free throw, because they thought Wanamaker was pushed, but no call was forthcoming.

That basket marked the final points of the Big East season for Pittsburgh. The Panthers had two chances to tie but first Wanamaker and then Gilbert Brown missed makeable mid-range shots. Harangody knocked down a pair of free throws to extend the lead the 49-45 with 15.9 seconds left, and it was mostly academic from there.

“For Luke to bounce back after traveling when we go to him in a big possession and come back and make the two free throws just kind of tells you the kind of guy he is,” said Brey of the shots that iced the game.

In the first half, the Irish were efficiently patient thanks to hot shooting, especially from Jackson and Scott. The two combined to make 6-of-7 shots in the half, including three 3-pointers from Jackson. Tyrone Nash served as the facilitator with six assists from the forward spot. Notre Dame’s first three baskets, a lay-in for Abromaitis, an open 3-pointer for Jackson and a long jumper by Scott all came off of good feeds by Nash. The Irish had 12 assists on 13 made field goals in the opening 20 minutes.

Nash’s distribution helped the Irish get out to a 15-7 lead with 13:46 left. The Irish scored on each of their first seven offensive possessions. Little did we know that we had already seen all of the offensive efficiency that we were going to see.

Pittsburgh stayed close behind Wanamaker (16 points for the game), Dixon (10) and seven first-half offensive rebounds for the team. Five points from Wanamaker brought the Panthers from down 25-21 to within a point at 27-26.

Brown’s free throw tied the score at 27 with 1:30 left in the first half, but a backdoor look from Ben Hansbrough to Haragody got Notre Dame its lead back, and then Jackson hit a three-pointer from the left corner to make it five. The Irish went into the locker up 34-31 and never trailed again.

It was a basketball game almost devoid of baskets and even shot attempts, but it was nonetheless a win for Notre Dame, the 93rd for the senior class of Jackson, Harangody and Jonathan Peoples, a school record. The Irish advance to the Big East Tournament semifinals for the first time since 2007.

“I don’t call it frustrating,” said Jamie. “You have to be prepared and understand what they’re doing. You know it’s going to be low-scoring. You know it’s going to be a low-possession game. You know it’s going to be a close game. … We were in a position to win the game, so I don’t say we were frustrated.”

“Sometimes they come down and rush it,” Jackson countered. “Then they have to get back and guard again. If they miss, it makes it more aggravating and frustrating for them.”

Notre Dame has transformed itself from a team going nowhere to a club sure to get a mid-seed when the NCAA Tournament draw is announced on Sunday evening. Apparently, the Irish needed to become mind-numbingly boring to get here from there.

“So the last two nights, we have had 69 shot attempts and 72 tonight,” said Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin, whose team attempted 17 more field goals and eight more free throws than Louisville. “We can rebound the ball when we get shots off.”

In the first half alone, UC had 18 offensive rebounds. Shot after shot deflected off the hands of Louisville players and either out of bounds or into the waiting arms of Bearcats. In the first 20 minutes, though, it didn’t appear that Cincy’s backboard dominance would matter a bit, since it shot an abysmal 31.3 eFG and committed seven turnovers. Meanwhile, Louisville hit 6-of-9 3-pointers to take a 41-32 lead into intermission.

In the second half, though, Louisville went cold, and the Cards eventually succumbed to Cincinnati’s irrepressible offensive rebounding.

After taking a 46-34 lead on a long jumper from Edgar Sosa with 18:38 left in the second half, UofL scored just seven points in the next 12 game minutes, a total of 19 possessions.

“I thought we forced things the first two minutes of the second half — went one-on-three, one-on four,” said Louisville head coach Rick Pitino. “They ran a couple guys out; they ran [Yancy] Gates out. When you take bad shots, that’s the easiest way to get a run-out. I thought we lost the game in the first five minutes of the second half.”

“We’re not going to win if we give up 82; they had 41 at halftime,” noted Cronin, whose defense held Louisville to just nine second-half field goals. “We have to find a way to play better defense, and Darnell [Wilks] and Ibrahima Thomas pointed out some things in the pick-and-roll defense that we changed. We were able to stop them from getting drives down the lane and contain the basketball.”

Cincinnati, just by force of chance, started to make some shots. Gates, in particular, flourished as Louisville sputtered, the hefty sophomore scoring six of his team-high 16 points over a span of four possessions.

“We felt the momentum changing,” said Gates. “Once we started to make our run, we got some big baskets and some key stops. … Energy picked up as a group, not just the five on the floor.”

Cincinnati had closed to within two with 10 minutes to play, when Louisville’s final lead of the game was lost in a rare four-point possession by Cincinnati.

Reginald Delk fouled Wilks on a dunk that Wilks converted to tie the score at 53. Wilks missed the subsequent free throw, but Jaquon Parker grabbed the rebound. He fed to Lance Stephenson, who missed a shot from close range, but Parker again got the rebound and finished himself to give Cincinnati a 55-53 lead.

Cincinnati then opened up its biggest lead of the game at 60-53 with 6:22 left when Parker grabbed Thomas’ ill-advised 3-pointer and got the putback with the foul as a bonus. The 6-foot-3 Parker, who made the bonus free throw, had seven offensive rebounds to go along with nine points, three assists and a steal.

Thomas’ wild 3-pointer was typical of Cincinnati’s shot selection throughout the game. It was almost as if the Bearcats simply wanted to get the ball on the glass so they could get it back for an easier chance. Whether that was the strategy or not, the results were successful on Wednesday.

“Cincinnati deservers a lot of credit, because we got them to take a lot of difficult shots, but they kept getting put-backs, and they won the game on offensive rebounding,” said Pitino, whose team was 13th in the Big East in defensive rebounding. “They just really took us to the woodshed on the backboard. It’s been a little bit of a weakness for us all year, and it showed against that basketball team.”

Louisville made a run at UC thanks to untimely free throw misses by Cincinnati and some huge shots by Sosa. The senior led all scorers with 28 points, a Louisville record for a Big East Tournament game.

The senior hit a 3-pointer to draw the Cards within two at 60-58 with 5:36 to play and then another huge shot from deep on the right wing to halve a six-point UC lead and make the score 64-61 with 3:20 to go.

After Cincinnati grabbed two more offensive rebounds on its next possession, Preston Knowles determined not to let the Bearcats get another shot at a board. He stripped Deonta Vaughn and fed Sosa, who scored the layup despite being fouled by Vaughn. Sosa’s free throw would have tied the score at 64 with 1:45 to play, but it missed.

Just like he did on Tuesday against Rutgers, the freshman Stephenson made huge free throws to stem the tide on Wednesday. After Parker missed 1-of-2 at the line and Cashmere Wright missed the front end of a 1-and-1, Stephenson calmly knocked down a pair to give UC a 67-63 with 29.6 to play.

Delk countered with a three from the left corner with 9.7 seconds left to draw the Cardinals within one. Vaughn was immediately fouled on the subsequent inbounds pass and made both free throws with 5.9 seconds left to open the lead back to three.

Sosa then raced down the court despite constant harassing by Vaughn, who was trying to put Sosa on the line to prevent a 3-point attempt. Instead, no foul was called, and Vaughn stripped Sosa as he went up for the game-tying effort, time expiring as the ball scuttled away.

“If you can believe it, we called timeout to foul [Sosa] at halfcourt,” said Cronin. “Deonta claims he was fouling him the whole time. I was scared he was going to finally foul him when the shot went up. I was going to be the laughingstock nationally.”

The win assures there will be no national scrutiny of the last play, which was probably more an error by the referee in not calling a foul on Vaughn rather than an error in execution or strategy by Cronin’s club.

A mix of free throws and defense completed the victory, but the story was the offensive rebounding. This was the second consecutive game in which Cincinnati dominated the offensive glass after ending Rutgers’ season in the same manner on Tuesday night.

In the span of 24 hours, the Bearcats have gone from never having won a Big East Tournament game to winning two. They also became the first team to win on both Tuesday and Wednesday, since the Big East allowed all 16 teams to participate in the tournament beginning last season. Seven previous squads had tried and failed.

If there is a team that can match the Bearcats on the offensive glass, it is their next opponent, West Virginia. The Mountaineers led the Big East in offensive rebounding percentage this season and often run out lineups composed entirely of 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-8 players.

“Just throw it at the rim and go get it,” said Cronin when asked to preview Thursday’s matchup. “Might be like the old days — just get shots off. They hurt us on the glass in the second half [of a six-point loss on Feb. 27]. … If we get outrebounded, we’ll lose tomorrow night.”

Notre Dame, however, went on a four-game winning streak, including wins over NCAA-bound Georgetown, Pittsburgh and Marquette. On Wednesday night in Madison Square Garden, Notre Dame’s NCAA hopes completed the full 180 from vanished to realized in a 68-54 win over Seton Hall.

There’s been ample discussion in the last week about how the Irish have changed in Harangody’s absence. Many have concluded that the Irish are better without the three-time first-team All-Big East player in the lineup.

In the big man’s absence, Notre Dame immediately allowed fewer points, but most of that was due to a slower tempo. The Irish have reduced their pace by about seven possessions per game with Harangody out.

When asked about what has changed most about his team, Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey said, “The offensive tempo — that’s the biggest change we’ve made. We’ve really been extremely patient, and that’s benefited us, especially when we can get the lead.”

While the tempo immediately slowed in Harangody’s absence, not until the last week of the season did Notre Dame’s defense show real improvement. Against Connecticut one week ago, Notre Dame held the Huskies to 39.4 eFG and kept them off the boards in stifling UConn’s offense to just .82 points per possession. It was an impressive performance but one mitigated by the Huskies’ season-long inability to hit shots and their fourth-worst Big East offense.

Three days later in Milwaukee, Harangody was back but played limited minutes. Against a much better Marquette offense, Notre Dame held the Golden Eagles to .95 points per possession thanks to another impressive field-goal defending performance (41.4 eFG). Notre Dame, a team that rarely even tries for steals, forced 13 turnovers.

Marquette shoots well and doesn’t turn it over, so that performance was something of a revelation. The revelation turned into gospel against Seton Hall on Wednesday when the Pirates scored just 54 points in 61 possessions (.81 PPP). The Pirates’ 36.2 percent eFG was its lowest mark of the entire season. Seton Hall sniper Jeremy Hazell made just 1-of-9 3-pointers and needed 16 shots to get a team-high 14 points.

“I thought we were great on Hazell,” said Brey. “There was a really good awareness of the 3-point line, especially Hazell.”

A day after scoring 55 points in the first half and 54 points in the second half of that memorable victory over Providence, the Pirates managed just 54 points in the entire game.

“I think you’re seeing how we’re changing as a team here, even in March,” said Brey. “Field-goal percentage, defense was great. We limited them on their possessions. It was our tempo.”

As much as the consecutive defensive performances had to be equal parts shocking and encouraging for Notre Dame fans long used to having to watch their teams win shootouts, the decline in offense in the final two games was discouraging. The .951 and .996 points per possession that the Irish scored in the wins over Connecticut and Marquette were the second and fourth worst totals of the conference season for Notre Dame.

Re-enter Mr. Harangody. Carleton Scott, whose defensive effort had largely been credited with UND’s improvement, picked up his second foul with 16:45 left in the first half. Brey had no choice but to go to the all-time leading scorer in Big East history.

On the first possession after Harangody’s entrance, Seton Hall’s Jeff Robinson drove and scored with ease, and the critics seemed immediately justified — Harangody gives up more points than he scores, they smirked.

But, with Notre Dame down 9-2 after seven inept offensive possessions, the forward showed why they keep him around in South Bend. He drove and scored on Robinson, then flushed a score off a nice feed from Tory Jackson. Those were just four of the 15 points Harangody would score in 15 first-half minutes. He also grabbed nine rebounds to help turn a seven-point deficit into a 28-21 halftime lead.

“The microwave was ready to go tonight,” said Brey. “It was not anything anybody hasn’t seen. We’re going to need that as he comes back.”

“The last couple of days of practice have been great for me just to get back in the flow,” said Harangody. “I feel right now that I started to get a little bit of swagger I had before the injury, a little more of the confidence.”

Brey went back to Scott for most of the second half — he played 16 second-half minutes to Harangody’s nine. It’s ironic that Seton Hall actually found points easier to come by during the half when Scott saw most of the action — 35 points on 31 possessions — rather than the half in which Harangody played most — 21 points on 30 possessions. This basketball thing is an inexact science.

The lasting lesson of Harangody’s absence and re-emergence on Wednesday was probably one learned by Brey. For the last two seasons, Brey thought Harangody’s offense too valuable to take off the floor to improve his defense. Only through the injury did Brey learn that his team can function without the all-time Irish great on the floor.

“We prided ourselves on being one of the leading scoring teams,” said Brey. “A real fun team to watch when we’re running and firing — getting 25 assists. Those days are over.”

While the days of free-and-easy ND may be gone, the days of playing in the NCAA Tournament have certainly arrived again. With Tyrone Nash, Scott and Harangody, Brey has a true forward rotation that allows him to mix and match for the opponent and game situation. The Irish are now a much different team than they’ve been since Harangody arrived and much better than they’ve been in two seasons.

Mick Cronin’s team fought back from an early deficit to race out to an eight-point margin with three minutes to play on 14th-seeded Rutgers, but turnovers and missed free-throws led to the lead drying up in the final minutes. Mike Rosario’s difficult 3-pointer with 15 seconds left tied the score at 68, but Lance Stephenson was fouled on a powerful drive with 1.8 second left, and he knocked down a free-throw to give Cincinnati a 69-68 win and a date with Louisville on Wednesday night.

“That’s why I came to Cincinnati — to change the program around, play hard and just win games,” said Stephenson, who — along with nailing the clinching free throw — scored 13 points, grabbed nine rebounds and dished out five assists in a terrific all-around floor game.

In his fourth season at Cincinnati, Cronin brought in his most highly-rated talent yet in Stephenson, and early on, it appeared the program had indeed changed. Cincinnati blasted out to a 10-3 start with wins over certain NCAA Tournament teams Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui and a pair of overtime losses to two more tourney-bound squads, Gonzaga and Xavier.

But a 2-0 start in conference turned into a 5-11 finish, and Cincinnati now finds itself a very long shot to hear its name announced on Sunday. The reasons for this are manifold. The offense isn’t good — it’s ranked just 12th in the high-powered Big East — but the Bearcats have a roster composition that should lead to erratic offense.

The strange aspect of Cincinnati’s tailspin is the deterioration of its defense. UC held Maryland, Vanderbilt and Xavier — terrific offensive teams all — below a point per possession in non-conference encounters (in the case of Maryland and Vanderbilt, well below a point per possession). In the league, though, the Bearcats have held just three opponents below a point per possession in its last 17 games.

The mediocre defense was in evidence against Rutgers, who scored 1.09 points per possession, despite entering as the second-worst offensive team in the Big East. RU’s hot shooting carried it to wins over Georgetown and St. John’s, and the Knights hit 6-of-11 3-pointers in the first half to take a 32-31 lead into the break.

“They made shots, and we let Mike Rosario get too many open looks,” said Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin. “But they made shots.”

Rutgers was able to be efficient on offense by shooting 52 percent eFG for the game and committing just seven turnovers. The former was a bit of an anomaly for the inconsistent Knights shooters against a solid Bearcats field-goal defense, but the latter was par for the course for a Cincy team that rarely forces turnovers. Cincy’s dominance of the defensive glass — Rutgers had just seven offensive rebounds — kept Rutgers from finding an offensive stratum it had only dreamed about in conference play.

When Jonathan Mitchell converted on a feed from unanimous All-Rookie Team selection Dane Miller to give Rutgers a 50-45 lead with 10:46 to play, it looked like UC’s poor defensive play could end the meaningful part of its season far sooner than anyone could have guessed two months ago. A 17-4 run over the next seven minutes, though, prevented the ignominy of another first-day defeat.

Stephenson, the Big East Rookie of the Year, led the run with eight of the points, including two on which he also drew the foul. Despite the postseason honors, Stephenson has had an up-and-down season, and that was in evidence on Tuesday. The Lincoln High product and four-time PSAL champion — titles won in Madison Square Garden — shot just 1-for-7 in the first half, though he did have four assists. In the second half, Stephenson scored 11 points on 4-of-8 shooting and did not have a turnover in 30 minutes of action.

“We did a great job offensively taking care of the basketball,” said Cronin, whose team committed just eight turnovers. “If we get shots off, we’re going to rebound. We got 69 shots off. That’s why we had 23 offensive rebounds.”

These Bearcats looked like last year’s Bearcats, dominating the offensive glass to grab 49 percent of their misses. That’s an element to Cincy’s offense that has been missing through much of this season. UC’s decisive run climaxed when Ibrahima Thomas grabbed Stephenson’s missed shot, and Yancy Gates soon found Jaquon Parker for the 3-pointer that made the score, 62-54.

Parker started and scored 13 points in place of suspended junior Rashad Bishop, who will not play in the Big East Tournament after an unspecified violation of team rules. The first choice to replace Bishop was likely Dion Dixon, but he was unavailable because of a sprained ankle suffered in practice on Monday.

Despite filling in admirably, Parker missed the front end of a 1-and-1 with 36 seconds left and his team down by five. He then made a bad in-bounds pass with 30 seconds left and his team down by four. Jonathan Mitchell made a pair for free throws to close the margin to two before Deonta Vaughn made one of two at the line with 23 seconds left.

Rosario followed Vaughn’s split at the free-throw line with a leaning 3-pointer from the top of the key to tie the score at 68-68 with 15 seconds left, which is when Stephenson retook command. Cronin had burned all his timeouts trying to prevent UC from collapsing in the face of Rutgers’ last-minute press, but Stephenson was unruffled. He waved off the senior Vaughn and patiently worked on Miller, taking him to the rim with a powerful move.

“I thought our guys were phenomenal in the last two minutes of the game,” said Rutgers head coach Fred Hill. “We talk about execution, no timeouts left. They did everything they were supposed to do offensively and defensively. And that’s what got us into the game and gave us a chance to win the game.”

Indeed, Miller was in good position to make the defensive stop, forcing Stephenson into a difficult position nearly under the basket, but Hamady Ndiaye’s help defense may have pushed Miller into Stephenson, and the resulting contact put the freshman on the line.

“I definitely though that I was going to get the block and everything,” said Rutgers senior Hamady Ndiaye, the school’s all-time leader in blocked shots. “I can’t see any other things that happened. I just know I went for the block.”

Stephenson made the first and intentionally missed the second, leaving Rosario with nothing more than a 60-foot heave to prevent his second season at Rutgers from ending like his first.

“I knew I was going to make the first free throw,” said Stephenson. “I had confidence in myself. So I just wanted to make the first one, so I could miss the second one and make it a tough spot for them.”

For the first time, Cincinnati plays a second time at the Big East Tournament. The Bearcats had been the only Big East member to never win a conference tournament game, but that streak ended on Tuesday. Cincinnati now faces a Louisville team that defeated it by 16 on Feb. 6.

The Bearcats’ attempt to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time as a member of the Big East will likely end at the hands of the rival Cards on Wednesday night, but — barring an improbable run here –the questions about how Cincinnati went from the top 25 to on the outside of the NCAAs looking in will surely continue throughout the summer.

Other teams are the same in the postseason as in the regular season. That was the case with Providence on Tuesday night. The Friars were the worst defensive team in the Big East this season, and against Seton Hall, they allowed an unconscionable 55 points on 35 first-half defensive possessions to trail by 16 at the break.

The Friars, however, were also one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, which is how the Pirates ended the game with 109 points on 84 possessions but with a lump in their collective throat as well.

Somewhere between not being able to defend a cone and the final buzzer, the Friars had gotten to within a Duke Mondy 3-pointer of tying the game. The freshman’s shot was long, and, with that miss, Seton Hall escaped from an improbable classic, 109-106, in the highest-scoring 40-minute game in Big East Tournament history.

The Friars’ late run turned the story of the game from their inept defense to Seton Hall’s near-fatal closing performance. It took PC seven minutes to narrow the margin from 29 to 24 with 6:36 to go, but then the Friars hit the Pirates with an avalanche. Providence scored an incomprehensible 23 points in 11 possessions to cut the deficit to nine on a nice feed from freshman Vincent Council to fellow frosh Bilal Dixon with 1:56.

The most surprising part of the rally was probably that it wasn’t Jamine Peterson who spurred it. The Friars red-shirt sophomore had a Providence Big East Tournament-best 38 points to go with 16 rebounds, but it was senior Sharaud Curry and Dixon who scored seven points each in the run.

“We were just trying to motivate our guys to not end the season like this,” said Providence head coach Keno Davis when asked what adjustments he made with his team down 29. “So, when we cut the lead to a manageable number, which was like 12 or 14, then I felt, ok, let’s use some of our pressure.”

In the face of that pressure, Seton Hall became charitable. The Pirates — typically one of the nation’s stingiest ball-handling teams — had just 12 turnovers for the game, but, after watching that 29-point lead crumble to just nine with 1:56 to go, they panicked. Facing a Providence press that is usually more reminiscent of a sieve than a clamp, Bobby Gonzalez watched his team turn it over on five of seven possessions.

“It was kind of weird, because we came back, and we showed that we have a lot of effort,” said Dixon, who finished the game with 16 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks and two steals in 30 minutes. “I always knew we could play. I always knew we had to play with effort. I didn’t know we were going to show it. But when we did, look what happened: we cut a [29]-point lead to three.”

With the lead not yet down to three but shaky at five with 1:05 to play, Seton Hall started to hold on to the ball again but immediately lost its free-throw touch. After making 78 percent of their first 27 attempts, the Pirates made just 10 of their final 18 (56 percent). The final two misses by Jeff Robinson with 7.5 seconds left set up Mondy’s heave.

Sophomore guard Jordan Theodore, who scored 21 points and dished out six assists in one of his best games in blue and white, had an apt summary for what Seton Hall fans were probably feeling when Mondy’s shot caromed off the backboard.

“It was nerve-racking, but I’m happy he missed it.”

“It was kind of like two different games. Obviously, we got out and played great,” said Seton Hall head coach Bobby Gonzalez. “Sometimes, when you get up like that, it’s not easy to stay ahead in a game that long. There’s a different strategy. You try to use the clock. I maybe subbed a little bit too early … thinking about playing Notre Dame [Wednesday] night.”

What should not be lost in the comeback was just how thoroughly dominant Seton Hall was for two-thirds of the game. The Pirates carved up Providence’s zone like they were facing a practice drill. Providence combines poor defense with a fast pace in ratios that sometimes make announcers lose the ability to focus on anything else.

“We know the zone pretty well,” said Theodore in reference to playing the Friars on Saturday night. “We just attacked it, setting screens and moving the ball. I was knocking down some shots, Herb was knocking down some shots. So everything just took its course. Everything was easy.”

Easy indeed. Seton Hall scored 41 points in just 20 possessions to end the first half and open the second. To put this in perspective, the Pirates scored on 17 of the 20 possessions. The only three possession on which they didn’t get the ball through the net were when they turned it over. When they managed to get a shot, they got points. For lovers of points, it was something to behold. For lovers of defense or Friars, it was something less than that.

When asked about his defense, which has not held an opponent to less than 1.10 points per possession since January, Davis said, “I think, with our young guys, they have a chance to make big jumps. They have to be able — on the defensive end — to learn. … You have to learn positioning. You have to learn your reverse pivot on the rebound. You have to learn your weak-side help. Those things take time.”

While the Friars have an entire offseason to learn, their opponent Tuesday has — in the wake of a nearly embarrassing defeat — less than 24 hours to refocus on its most important game. The Pirates play Notre Dame at 7 p.m. on Wednesday in the most important game Gonzalez has coached since becoming the coach of Seton Hall in 2006. A win will almost certainly send Seton Hall to its first NCAA Tournament since that season.

“We have 19 wins; we have no bad losses,” said Gonzalez of his team’s NCAA Tournament résumé. “We know it’s a big game. If we win, now, all of sudden, we have 20 wins. We’ll leave it up to the people who make those decisions. Right now, our guys are focused on playing Notre Dame.”

Perhaps the Pirates focused on playing Notre Dame a few minutes too soon. But they hung on nonetheless, and they have now one game for their season on Thursday night.

It’s really the perfect setup for ultimate exposure. When the Big East Tournament starts on Tuesday, the only real competition for media attention is the Horizon, Sun Belt and Summit finals (unless you fancy some Atlantic 10 pre-quarters). By Friday and Saturday, when the other big leagues are giving fans their first tastes of quality games, the Big East trumps them with matchups of top teams in its semis and final. The Big East finally relents on Sunday for a few hours, but then comes the selection show, in which Big East teams are likely to make up at least an eighth of the field. The conference may not end up owning the NCAA Tournament, but it has property rights to most of this seven-day period of college hoops gluttony.

With an unrivaled media footprint — especially now that either ESPN2 or ESPNU is carrying the games on Second Division Day (Tuesday) — what can college hoops fans expect from the Garden this week?

Tournament Overview

The first thing that pops out when looking at the Big East Tournament bracket is how strong the top half is. I’d argue that Syracuse, Villanova, Marquette and Georgetown are four of the six best teams in the conference, but they will meet each other in the quarterfinals if the seeds hold. Also, St. John’s is playing in its home arena and is a strong No. 13 seed, and Connecticut — while in a tailspin — still outscored its opponents in conference play and enters the Big East Tournament ninth in the league in efficiency margin. The potential Marquette-Villanova quarterfinal, which would be a rematch of last year’s thriller, has my mouth watering.

The strength of the top half of the bracket means that West Virginia should be heavy favorites to get through the bottom half. The Mountaineers’ defense has been sharp since it couldn’t keep from fouling in the loss to Connecticut on Feb. 22, and the offense has been consistently strong until a weak effort at Villanova on Saturday. The trick is that West Virginia has been bracketed with teams that have given it trouble this season. The quarterfinal matchup will probably be with a Louisville team that had WVU dead to rights in Morgantown before a late Cards collapse mixed with questionable officiating combined to create a West Virginia win. Bob Huggins’ team has lost to its two most likely semifinal opponents — Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The No. 10 seed, Seton Hall, is the other possible semifinal opponent, and the Pirates took West Virginia to overtime before losing.

Dangerous Sleepers

Connecticut: Jim Calhoun benched seniors Stanley Robinson, Gavin Edwards and Jerome Dyson for nearly all of the second half of UConn’s loss to South Florida on Saturday, and he insists that the five who finished the USF game will be the five starters in Tuesday’s second game against St. John’s. With the uncertainty about what that lineup might bring for an entire game, it’s hard to call Connecticut all that dangerous. At the same time, how often does a team outscore its opponents and yet grab the No. 12 seed in its conference tournament? Connecticut enters the tournament in need of three wins to make the NCAAs. That’s probably a stretch, but it’s not hard to envision UConn defeating St. John’s, knocking off a Marquette team it lost to on a buzzer-beater earlier this season and testing a Villanova team it defeated on the road just a few weeks ago. UConn’s lack of depth makes winning on back-to-back days or three straight days a more difficult task.

Seton Hall: This tournament does not set up well for a team playing the first day making it very far, and indeed all four Day 1 winners lost on Day 2 last season. But, if there is a team playing Tuesday that has a real shot to get all the way to the semis, it’s probably Seton Hall. To get to Friday, Bobby Gonzalez’s squad would have to defeat three teams it’s already beaten. First up is a Providence team that the Pirates handled in Rhode Island on Saturday. Then comes Notre Dame, which Seton Hall defeated by three in the game where Luke Harangody was injured. Should SHU defeat Notre Dame, it would have to feel comfortable that its NCAA Tournament ticket was punched. It could play free and loose against No. 2 Pittsburgh. Seton Hall defeated Pittsburgh by three in January despite getting next to nothing from Jeremy Hazell.

Georgetown: The last sleeper is a team that gets Tuesday off, but Georgetown has a team of a quality seldom found at a No. 8 seed. And, yes, the Hoyas lost at home to likely Wednesday opponent USF and lost twice to quarterfinal opponent Syracuse, but the Hoyas are good enough to win both games even if the matchups don’t necessarily favor them. With Austin Freeman’s condition diagnosed and addressed, the Hoyas played a dominant second half against Cincinnati on Saturday. This is also a team that won at Pitt and defeated Villanova and Duke. If Georgetown were the No. 7 seed, I’d like it to get to the semis, but Notre Dame’s overtime win at Marquette puts GU in the brutal top half. With potential matchups against Pittsburgh and West Virginia — two teams they’ve already beaten — perhaps the Irish are the better sleeper bet after all.

Vulnerable High Seeds

I won’t dwell on this, because I made oblique reference to it in the section above. As well as Pittsburgh has played this season, the Panthers are not the second-best team in this tournament. I guess that’s me daring them to prove me wrong, and with wins over Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and Marquette, I suppose Pitt already has done so. At the same time, Pittsburgh has shown vulnerability on both ends of the floor, and I’d expect those to be exposed at some points this week and perhaps early. Notre Dame is equal parts sleeper and vulnerable. With a likely Wednesday matchup against Seton Hall, the Irish can’t relish the idea of chasing around Hazell and Jordan Theodore while Herb Pope wreaks havoc inside. The Irish may be the team seeded 5-8 with both the best chance of advancing to the semis and losing in its first game.

Time for Some Bubbly

Here’s what the Big East’s bubble teams need to do to get in:

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are almost certainly in the field with their 11-7 conference record, but a home loss to Notre Dame on Saturday combined with a loss to St. John’s or UConn on Wednesday would make my heart pitter-patter at 6 p.m. on Sunday if I were an MU fan. Barring an injury to Lazar Hayward or Jimmy Butler and a loss on Wednesday, Marquette should be safe, but it would be best to win on Wednesday just for anxiety’s sake.

Notre Dame: The Irish are right with Marquette in my at-large model, but UND is generally a seed or two behind Marquette in the Bracket Matrix. That leads me to believe that Notre Dame is in want of a win on Wednesday. The Irish may not need to win, but they would be putting their fate in the hands of the committee if they lose to Seton Hall or Providence on Wednesday.

Seton Hall: I have the Pirates among the last four out in my latest projection. This means that Seton Hall will surely have to defeat Providence and Notre Dame to have a chance at dancing. I would suggest that those two wins would be enough. I’m quite certain the Pirates would make my final field should they win their first two games, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t be snubbed by the committee.

South Florida: The Bulls beat Seton Hall head-to-head — at home in overtime — and have one extra top-25 win, so it’s reasonable for some people to put USF ahead of the Pirates. Seton Hall, though, played a tougher conference schedule (fifth toughest compared to USF’s 15th toughest in the RPI) and the Pirates don’t have a single loss to a team outside the top 100. Either way, the Bulls are unlikely to be compared directly to SHU if they win twice in the Big East Tournament. That would require a win over a Georgetown team that USF defeated on Feb. 3. Duplicating that feat should punch Stan Heath’s team’s ticket.

Connecticut: Must win three. Simple as that. Anything less won’t be enough. Ken Pomeroy has UConn at 1-in-10 to do just that, and 10 percent is about right for the Huskies’ NCAA Tournament odds.

Cincinnati: Pray for rain? I suppose if the Bearcats reach the Big East Tournament final, they will be strongly considered and might get in. Let’s stick to reality, though.

Day 1 Previews

No. 16 DePaul vs. No. 9 USF; noon ET, ESPN2: These teams played last Tuesday as well, with USF winning an unimpressive 63-59 final. Demons fans may not have noticed — and judging by the attendance, you haven’t — but DePaul has actually played a lot of close games down the stretch, climbing past Rutgers and out of the cellar in efficiency margin (thank Pittsburgh for its 29-point blowout win over RU on Saturday). Nine of its last 10 losses are by single digits, including to Louisville and Syracuse. USF ranks just 13th in efficiency margin, making this a more even game than the seeds might imply. Still, USF needs to win to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, and I don’t expect a similar performance by the Bulls that we saw by Cincinnati in a similar spot last season.

No. 13 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Connecticut; 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Red Storm played Georgetown in a comparable situation in last year’s Big East Tournament. The Hoyas came in as disappointments but with perhaps faint hopes of achieving an NCAA Tournament bid with a long run in the Garden. St. John’s was generally overlooked, but the Red Storm played well and defeated the Hoyas. A reproduction of that event would not surprise me. With two good defenses and poor offenses, this figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the tournament if it plays to form. UConn won by 16 in Hartford on Jan. 20.

No. 15 Providence vs. No. 10 Seton Hall; 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Friars followed up its near-miss at Pittsburgh with a clunker in their home finale against these same Pirates. For once, the defense wasn’t the primary problem — not to imply that PC’s defense was good on Saturday. Worse was the offense, which shot just 42.3 percent eFG and committed turnovers on one quarter of its possessions. The latter has rarely been a problem this season. If the Friars can clean up the turnovers and get Greedy Peterson more involved — the double-double machine had just six points and four rebounds before fouling out — PC could pull off a crushing upset. The bad matchup for PC — and this isn’t new — is on defense, where Seton Hall doesn’t turn the ball over. Forcing turnovers is the primary way that PC gets stops, and without that out, the Friars’ only option is to pray for missed shots. Teams don’t generally miss layups.

No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Cincinnati; 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: If St. John’s or Providence were in Rutgers’ spot, I’d really like the bigger seed, but Rutgers is just really bad. I guess it’s a testament to Fred Hill’s coaching that RU won five league games despite being outscored by 16 points per 100 possessions, but it’s also a sign that the Scarlet Knights are some combination of inconsistent and pretty awful. The 15th-ranked offense and defense in the Big East plays a Cincinnati team that again enters MSG with a lost look about it. The Bearcats had tough defeats to Marquette, West Virginia and Villanova before leading at the half at Georgetown. The second half was an embarrassment, though, with UC being outscored 45-21. UC could have used a more consistent senior season from Deonta Vaughn.

Forecast of Trepidation

West Virginia and Syracuse are the best teams in the Big East and the most likely to make the final. In the last two years, we’ve seen the top seed play a mid-seed in the final, but this feels more like a chalk year. Syracuse has the tougher route to the final, which means the Orange will likely enter the final a bit more weary, but the 2-3 zone is an equalizer for SU’s fatigue. I say West Virginia settles for too many 3-pointers, and Syracuse takes home the title by 6-8 points.

Coverage This Week

I’ll be at all five night sessions of the Big East Tournament, doing my best to provide incisive analysis for my favorite conference tournament. Check back here for nightly pieces leading up to Selection Sunday and the final Bracket Junkie.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday.

There is a distinctly western flavor to the teams moving into the field. The Pac-10 may turn out to be the greatest beneficiary of the inability of most bubble teams to win down the stretch. Arizona State finished 12-6 in conference after a win over UCLA, and Washington had a strong second half to put Oregon State away in Corvallis. SDSU finished 11-5 in the Mountain West after having no trouble at all with lowly Air Force in Colorado Springs. Mississippi stormed back in the second half to knock off Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s a 20 minutes that may prove decisive to the Rebels’ season.

Atlantic 10: The closing weeks of the season couldn’t have been any worse for the Atlantic 10, which once appeared likely to get five bids. In their last seven games of the season, Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island combined to win just five times — that’s 5-16. One of those wins was in a game between Charlotte and Rhode Island, and another was a home win over winless Fordham for Rhody. None of the five wins was against any of the league’s top three. Saint Louis has passed Charlotte and Dayton on my at-large model, but URI may be the only salvageable team. With a run to the finals of the A-10 Tournament, the Rams could dance.

Temple, Xavier and Richmond continue to play for seeding, all winning over the weekend. The A-10 Tournament champ, assuming it’s one of those three and that justice is served, should be rewarded with a No. 4 seed.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)

ACC: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech got the wins they needed this weekend. The Demon Deacons were victorious at home against Clemson, and the Hokies went to Atlanta and stunned Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are now in serious trouble with that ugly 7-9 conference record. In Georgia Tech’s defense, it did play the second-toughest conference schedule, getting Duke twice and Maryland on the road. The Jackets have four top-50 wins to their credit but none since January. GaTech plays North Carolina in a 7-10 game on Thursday, which is a must-win. The question is whether Paul Hewitt’s team will need a victory over Maryland in the quarterfinals. I suspect a respectable showing should be enough.

Duke and Maryland closed out their seasons with victories over lesser opposition to tie for the ACC regular-season title. The Blue Devils remain a No. 1 seed, West Virginia being the No. 2 with the only legitimate case for a No. 1 right now. Maryland could move all the way up to a No. 2 or 3 with an ACC Tournament title. A trip to the final should ensure a top-four seed.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Wake Forest (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (second-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas State’s home loss to Iowa State on Saturday should all but eliminate the Wildcats from consideration for a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Baylor continues to have trouble finding the respect it deserves. The Bears have identical conference and overall records as K-State, and Baylor’s conference record was achieved against a slightly tougher schedule. Both teams have four wins against top-25 teams, and Baylor has an extra top-100 win. Their RPIs are a spot apart, and yet K-State is a 2 or 3 but Baylor is a 5 or 6? That can’t be right, and I don’t think it is. I suspect the committee agrees with me.

Oklahoma State clinched its berth with a blowout win over last-place Nebraska. Texas was dismantled by said Baylor team in Waco and drops to a No. 7 seed with a 9-7 conference mark.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Baylor (No. 3)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)

Big East: Syracuse’s loss to Louisville clinched the Cardinals’ bid without hurting Syracuse severely. The Orange is still locked into a No. 1 seed and has a shot at the top overall spot should it win the Big East Tournament and Kansas not win the Big 12. West Virginia has emerged as the strongest No. 2 seed after its overtime win at Villanova. WVU could nab the last No. 1 from Duke should the Mountaineers advance further in their conference tournament. I still have Villanova as a solid No. 2, though I see some have dropped the Wildcats to a No. 3. With the main competition coming from Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Purdue and Ohio State — and three of those five teams getting No. 2’s — I suspect VU is in fine shape for now.

The biggest Big East news of the weekend came from Milwaukee where Notre Dame defeated Marquette. The Irish are on the edge of a berth and may make the field even with a pre-quarters loss to the winner of Seton Hall-Providence. That game could be a play-in game for Seton Hall, which defeated Providence on the road this weekend. It would be SHU’s second win over UND and might be the Big East’s best shot at a ninth bid. On the other hand, USF is also in the mix after defeating UConn on Saturday. Dominique Jones’ boys will play DePaul before getting a shot at Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas — which would be USF’s second this season — would make the Bulls hard to keep out.

As for Connecticut, some are saying that the Huskies need two wins in New York, but I’m not sure defeats of St. John’s and Marquette will be enough. I think three is the number, which means UConn would need to also down Villanova on Thursday.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing)
Notre Dame (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
South Florida (sixth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is out right now. With an RPI of 77, the Illini can play their way back to the bubble with a win over Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. Sunday’s 15-point home loss was as bad as it gets and the second time in a row that the Illini were a no-show against one of the Big Ten’s top four at home.

Ohio State will be one of the interesting seeding decisions on Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes are now 13-2 in their last 15 games with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois (twice) and Michigan State. Their only losses were at home to Purdue and at West Virginia. The question is how much the selection committee will discount the losses OSU suffered in Turner’s absence. The Buckeyes were 3-3 in those six games, but there’s no guarantee they would have won at Butler (eight-point loss) and at Wisconsin (22-point loss) even with Turner (the other loss was at Michigan by nine). This is something I’ll be mulling considerably over the next week. I don’t think the committee will give OSU a benefit of the doubt all the way to a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed seems likely if OSU advances to the Big Ten final or wins it.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (fifth-to-last out)

Mountain West: New Mexico is a No. 2 seed. Color me uncomfortable with that. I’m assuming a couple of major-conference teams will pass the Lobos this week, but what if they win the Mountain West Tournament? At that point, Steve Alford’s club would be 31-3 with a 5-0 record against the RPI top 25. Brigham Young could play its way to as high as a No. 3 seed by winning the MWC Tourney. I think a 4 or a 5 would fit nicely should BYU make it to at least the final, but there is stiff competition for those spots.

On the bubble, UNLV isn’t doing much, but not much is more than enough with teams falling around it. If the Rebels can win their quarterfinal game against Utah on Thursday then they should be in. The Aztecs have Colorado State in the quarters before a shot at New Mexico. Getting to the final should clinch a bid for SDSU, but even losing in the semis may be enough, though I doubt it.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 12, second-to-last in)

Pac-10: Oh, my! Dick Enberg will be in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament, and suddenly this year’s dead horse of major-conference basketball has a chance to showcase teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes. Cal, Washington and Arizona State all got out of the final weekend unscathed, and they are all in the field for now. I maintain that Cal is in if it avoids a quarterfinal loss to either Oregon or Washington State. I’m growing more and more certain that should Washington or Arizona State reach the Pac-10 final, that team would also be in. Despite having the better conference record, ASU is probably less likely to make the NCAAs than Washington because the Sun Devils have just one top-50 win and three top-100 wins. The Huskies two top-25 wins and six top-100 wins.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Arizona State (No. 13, last in)

SEC: Kentucky surely locked up a No. 1 seed with its win over Florida on Sunday. Now the Wildcats have a chance at the top overall seed if they can win the SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt had a bad loss to South Carolina at home, and that loss moves the Commodores off the top four seed lines. Tennessee might have the most to gain from a deep SEC Tournament run. Even a No. 2 seed is not out of the question with the tournament title.

In most years, Florida — losers of three straight — would be in a very tough spot and in need of two SEC Tournament wins to clinch a bid. This year, though, the Gators should get in with a win over Auburn on Thursday. Mississippi will play the winner of Tennessee-LSU (in other words, Tennessee) in the quarters on Friday. A Rebels win would probably seal the deal. If they lose in the quarters, though, then I think they’re probably going to be on the outside looking in. After a no-show performance against Tennessee on Saturday night, Mississippi State probably needs to reach the SEC Tournament final to have a legitimate shot at a bid. To get there, MSU will likely have to beat Florida and Vanderbilt, which means the Bulldogs will have earned their bid.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (ninth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Another year, another second-place Missouri Valley Conference team that will likely be left out of the field. The Shockers have 10 top-100 wins but just one against the top 50 (Northern Iowa at home). In recent seasons, similar profiles were not good enough for Creighton or Illinois State, so I’m guessing the same will be true of WSU, which rarely shows up on last-teams-out lists for most projectors. I’ve given the Shockers ample love on mine.

There are two big games for bubble teams tonight in the West Coast Conference and the CAA. Saint Mary’s plays Gonzaga, and William & Mary plays Old Dominion. Let’s compare Gonzaga and Old Dominion for a moment. Both have RPIs in the mid-30s. Both have one top-25 win. Gonzaga has two more top-50 wins but ODU equals the Bulldogs in top-100 wins with eight. Gonzaga has one extra bad loss. ODU went 15-3 in a stronger conference than the one in which Gonzaga achieved its 14-2. ODU does have three more losses but also a tougher strength of schedule. Both teams have 25 wins. I’m not implying that Old Dominion should be ahead of Gonzaga, but how can one team be a No. 5 or 6 seed and the other not get in if it loses its conference tournament final? Surely that’s not the case. Gonzaga is definitely over-respected in comparison to the other top mid-major teams because of the Zags’ reputation, but I suspect Old Dominion will get in regardless of what happens in Richmond on Monday night.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Utah State (No. 10)
Siena (No. 11)
Memphis (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
UAB (last out)
Wichita State (third-to-last out)
William & Mary (eighth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (10th-to-last out)