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Notes: Just a few changes from the last projection. Pittsburgh moves down to a No. 4 and Temple moved up to a No. 3. Louisville moved down to a No. 10 and San Diego State up to a No. 9 to balance the Big East teams. Also, we decided to give Missouri the nod as a No. 10 and drop Wake Forest to a No. 11.

Also, it was painful to watch Minnesota get smoked in the second half by Ohio State, but we stuck to our guns and put the Gophers in as a No. 12. Mississippi State is the team we worry about most.

Moving In as At-large: Minnesota (UTEP and Utah State ate up two at-large bids)

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island

On the Bubble: As with most people, our breakdown came down primarily to five teams — Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Florida, Illinois and Mississippi State — for two spots. We also tried to give fair consideration to Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi, William & Mary and UAB, among others. At the end, though, in came down to those five.

All five teams have a variety of strengths and weaknesses, obviously, or they wouldn’t be in the situation that they are. Mississippi State turned out to be the easiest to eliminate thanks to a rash of bad losses compared to a dearth of quality wins, this despite wins over Florida and Vanderbilt in the last two days. The Bulldogs can, of course, play their way in with a win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final. We would reconsider Minnesota and Virginia Tech at that time, but our preliminary determination is that VaTech would be out should MSU knock off UK.

On the other end, Minnesota became the easiest team to add. With such a long list of quality wins (Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, vs. Butler, vs. Purdue, Wisconsin) and a strong finish (7-2 heading into the Big Ten Tournament final), the Gophers became the top choice of these five even with a loss to Ohio State. A blowout loss for Tubby Smith’s club against OSU could make us reconsider, but that would be very late in the game to make a change.

With Minnesota in the field and owning a recent road win at Illinois to help get there, it seemed unlikely that the Big Ten would get the last two spots. Illinois, like Minnesota, has its share of strong wins (vs. Wisconsin, at Wisconsin, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, at Clemson), but the Illini played very poorly down the stretch until the Big Ten Tournament and has a bunch of bad losses. It feels cruel to leave a team out after a double-overtime loss to a No. 2 seed, but that’s what we’re doing.

That left us with Virginia Tech vs. Florida. Neither team has terrific wins, but VaTech went 10-6 in the stronger ACC (albeit against a weaker-than-normal schedule). VaTech also had a much stronger finish until the slip-up in the ACC Tournament. Florida also has the worse losses — at South Carolina, at Georgia and, inexplicably, at home to South Alabama. VaTech’s losses at BC and to Miami in the ACC Tourney look less egregious in that light.

We’re not entirely comfortable with the SEC getting just three teams, but the quality wins just aren’t there. We’d also prefer to have a different last two in than Joe Lunardi, but you gotta go with what you believe will happen. We think it’s very close among these last two in and last two out, and we definitely were tortured by the decision.

Seeding: The main areas where we had extended debates over seeding were at the No. 3 and 4 lines. We like Villanova as a No. 3 and Purdue, Tennessee and Wisconsin as No. 4’s, but we had four very evenly-matched teams fighting for three No. 3 seeds: Temple, New Mexico, Baylor and Pittsburgh. We decided on New Mexico with its strong record overall, Mountain West regular-season title and 4-0 record against the top 25. We also liked Baylor’s many strong wins and fine play in a very good conference. The last decision came down to Temple and Pittsburgh (this is, again, assuming Temple wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament title). The nod went to Pittsburgh because Temple’s top-50 wins are bolstered by three over non-NCAA Tournament team Rhode Island, and we think it’s more likely that a team that tied for second in the Big East will get the nod as a No. 3 seed rather than another mid-major on the same line as New Mexico. This was a very difficult call.

A lot of the mid-seeds were, as usual, quite fungible. The good teams from weaker leagues — Gonzaga, Utah State, Siena, Old Dominion, UTEP — were among the hardest teams to seed. We also ran into issues with too many ACC teams on the 1/4/5/8/9/12 seed lines as well as too many Big East teams on the 2/3/6/7/10/11 seed lines. We’ve made what we thought were the most likely adjustments. We still may decide to move teams differently to accommodate conference balancing. For instance, we’re not all that comfortable with swapping Clemson and Oklahoma State, but we’ll see if there’s a better solution. Perhaps a Georgia Tech victory over Duke will solve that problem for us.

As far as the top two seed lines, we quickly came to a consensus on the eight teams. I do see that Georgetown is not commonly a No. 2 seed in the latest projections at the Bracket Matrix. The Hoyas were our lowest two, but they had enough strong performances on the season, especially once Austin Freeman was fully healthy in the Big East Tournament, to get the nod. It seems like Villanova is the team most commonly supplanting the Hoyas, and the Wildcats are our top No. 3, so that’s not out of line. We just think the Hoyas as a No. 2 is more likely. They had a very difficult conference schedule, playing Syracuse and Villanova twice, which makes the 10-8 league record a bit less onerous. That record is 13-9 when you include the Big East Tournament, which is not as far from 13-6, Nova’s conference record including postseason. You also have to consider that Georgetown has two more wins against the top 50 and played a much tougher non-conference schedule.

At the top line, there seems to be a growing push for West Virginia to be a No. 1, and we will indeed reconsider Duke if the Blue Devils lose in the ACC Tournament final. For now, though, under the assumption that Duke pulls the double with an ACC regular-season and tournament title, it would be hard to deny the Devils their due.

Upcoming Updates: With the way this weekend has gone, we fully expect to need to update this projection after the set of 1 p.m. tournament title games. We’ll put up a new post with any changes in the 3 p.m. EDT hour. Thanks again for your comments on various rematch/hosting issues — it’s a been a long week.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes

1. The most important thing to note is that this is our final bracket if the four remaining games go to the favorites. We’re projecting Duke, Kentucky, Temple and Ohio State as winners, and we will update this bracket around 3:30 p.m. EDT if one of those first three don’t happen — not sure there will be a need if Ohio State loses but perhaps. The most obvious update will be Mississippi State grabbing a bid with a win over UK.

2. I will have a brief breakdown in a few hours after I pour water on my eyes and have a chance to breathe — it’s been a long week at MSG and working on this bracket.

3. What a crazy last two days it’s been for the bubble, huh?

4. The “OSU” that was moved down one seed line was Oklahoma State not Ohio State.

The shot was Butler’s second last-second make of the tournament, besting — in impact if not improbability — his fallaway, banked 3-pointer to top Cincinnati on Thursday. The senior scored 20 points on the night and was named the tournament’s most outstanding player.

The quotable Butler described the final play best.

“We ran the same play that we set up for the Cincinnati game,” he said. “I came up to the top of the key, and I had to come get the ball, and they switched. I think Monroe was on me, and I think he had a feeling I was going to shoot a three. I had a little hesitation, went around him, and Freeman stepped up. I had a little hop step and scooped the lay-up off the glass, and it fell.”

Despite never trailing in the second half, West Virginia’s win wasn’t as comfortable as it might have been.

The Mountaineers have been guilty of building leads and then squandering them in this Big East Tournament, and it was no different on Saturday night. After taking a 50-41 lead on Kevin Jones’ elbow jumper with 7:30 to play, the Mountaineers went cold — they scored just two points in their next six possessions — and Georgetown made shots to get back in the game.

Freeman keyed the Hoyas comeback. After taking a supporting role to Chris Wright for most of the game, Freeman hit a three to cut the lead to 50-47 with 6:02 to play. After the two teams traded baskets for five minutes — including a Freeman follow of a missed Wright 3-pointer — it was Freeman who nailed a 3-pointer from the right side to tie the score at 56-56 with 53 seconds left.

On West Virginia’s next possession, Butler was short on a 3-pointer, but Devin Ebanks grabbed the Mountaineers’ 20th offensive rebound of the game, and Chris Wright was called for a hold on Joe Mazzulla. The red-shirt junior — playing his best game in two seasons — made both free throws to give the Mountaineers a 58-56 lead with 27.6 seconds to play. Mazzulla’s free throws gave West Virginia its 20th and 21st second-chance points of the game, 11 more than Georgetown’s total.

Wright, atoning for his foul, drove the length of the floor and beat Mazzulla with a nifty spin and finish to reknot the score with 18 seconds left.

West Virginia had the ball with the shotclock off but nearly gave away the chance to win the game in regulation. Mazzulla was in trouble near midcourt, but he found Ebanks with a pass to extract himself from that trouble, and Bob Huggins wisely called for time with nine seconds left. That set up the remarkable conclusion by Butler.

Down two after Butler’s make, Georgetown still had four seconds and one of the quickest guards in the league. Monroe in-bounded the ball to Wright who raced coast-to-coast, but his acrobatic attempt in the lane came up short. Wright lay in a heap on the baseline for an extended period of time but walked off the court under his own power.

“I was thinking about getting to the basket, trying to finish, trying to get a layup,” said Wright, who led Georgetown with 20 points and seven assists, when asked about whether considered pulling up for a game-winning 3-pointer instead of going all the way to the rim. “I had time on the clock. I wasn’t thinking of pulling up — just get over to the basket and get to overtime.”

Georgetown lost this game despite shooting for a higher percentage, getting to the foul line more often and turning the ball over less often than West Virginia. The Mountaineers won this game on the offensive glass.

West Virginia is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference but figured to have a challenge against Georgetown, who ranks fourth in defensive rebounding. That was not the case. The Mountaineers had nine offensive rebounds in the first half and 11 in the second half. Those 11 helped West Virginia score more points in the half (26) than there were possessions (25) despite a woeful 36 percent eFG in the last 20 minutes.

“We shot 38 percent against — that’s a heck of a team; they’re very good,” said Huggins. “You shoot 38 percent and win, you’re doing something right.”

That something was offensive rebounding.

“They’re just persistent,” said Georgetown head coach John Thompson III about West Virginia’s rebounding prowess. “They have guys that go after it.”

Wellington Smith was the key man on the glass and may have been the most influential player in the game. He was credited with six offensive rebounds and was most responsible for the nine-point lead that West Virginia built. Smith was given the task of guarding Monroe in the post and did it better than anyone has this tournament. Smith was physical with Monroe, tried to prevent him from going to his preferred left side and, most importantly, fronted him in the post on almost every occasion.

“I was trying to not let him catch the ball, try to deny him as much as I can,” said Smith. “He’s the engine that runs their team, so it’s important for us to not let him touch the ball.”

“They were denying me really hard and making it very difficult to get the ball in the post,” said Monroe. “They were sending extra help from both sides — from the top and from the baseline. So, they kind of made it real hard for me to score and get the ball.”

As a result, Monroe attempted just seven field goals and had a modest three assists, unable to make the same impact he made against the much smaller Marquette team he powered past on Friday night.

When Smith left the game after picking up his fourth foul with 8:04 to play, the Mountaineers had a seven-point lead. When he returned at the 2:04 mark, the lead had shrunk to just one. As it turned out, his impact in the game was through, since he picked up a reach-in foul on Wright almost immediately. Still, 11 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and fabulous defense on Monroe had left its mark.

West Virginia’s defense may have allowed a pedestrian 1.12 points per possession, but that was a much better mark than either Syracuse or Marquette could hold the Hoyas to the previous two days. Despite not turning it over — a traditional Achilles’ heel for the Hoyas — they were less efficient than they needed to be because they didn’t make shots.

The Hoyas are the best shooting team in the Big East with a 56.5 eFG. It’s the only thing the Hoyas do particularly well on offense, but it’s the most important thing an offense can do well. The problem is, when the shots aren’t falling or the defense is particularly difficult to handle — as West Virginia is, thanks to its length — there is no Plan B. GU is a better shooting team than WVU, but the Mountaineers also have a Plan B, namely the offensive rebounding. Without a Plan B, the Hoyas came up achingly short after the 39.2 percent 3-point-shooting team made just 4-of-16 (25 percent).

“You have to give credit to them and their ability to contest shots,” said Thompson about West Virginia’s 3-point defense. “We got some looks we normally make that didn’t go in — long guys running at you — but I don’t think it was a question of fatigue.”

Another Plan B came through for the Mountaineers in backup point guard Joe Mazzulla. Starter Darryl Bryant was ineffective to start the game. He wasn’t getting West Virginia into its offense, and the Moutaineers scored just one point on their first seven possessions with Bryant in the game. When Mazzulla entered, West Virginia was able to run better sets and the points started to come.

In the first 11 possessions after Mazzulla entered the game with 14:57 left in the first half, West Virginia scored 20 points to turn an 8-1 deficit into a 21-15 lead. West Virginia would never trail again. Mazzulla finished the game with seven assists and no turnovers, and, though he didn’t make any of his six field-goal attempts, he made all six of his free-throw attempts. Mazzulla, who has battled an injured left shoulder for two seasons, made his greatest impact since the end of his sophomore season in 2008.

“I thought he ran our team,” said Huggins. “He broke the defense down, got the ball to the basket for us. For a guy that they don’t think can shoot because of his shoulder, he went to the free-throw line and made shots for us. That’s what these guys are about.”

“These guys” will now head to the NCAA Tournament where they will try to avenge a first-round defeat last March. West Virginia is likely to be the top No. 2 seed, but there’s an outside shot of a No. 1 seed, especially if Duke loses in the ACC Tournament final. Georgetown is likely a No. 3 seed but could grab the last No. 2.

Wherever they end up, the Mountaineers will arrive as Big East champions, which thrilled a raucous and blue-and-gold-clad contingent from West Virginia, who roared from tip to trophy.

“They understand how much it means to the people in the state of West Virginia,” said Huggins of his team. “And they understand how much it means to the students at our university, and that’s because they are part of it.”

Last 10 In:

1. Rhode Island (last in)
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Virginia Tech
6. San Diego State
7. Missouri
8. Wake Forest
9. Louisville
10. Georgia Tech

Last 10 Out:

1. Seton Hall (last out)
2. Mississippi
3. Mississippi State
4. Wichita State
5. Memphis
6. Minnesota
7. UAB
8. William & Mary
9. Cincinnati
10. South Florida

Breakdown: A few bubble teams finally took their destiny into their own hands on Friday. Georgia Tech, UNLV and San Diego State almost certainly nailed down bids with wins over ranked opponents, and Illinois is now likely to make the field as well. Those three Tech, UNLV, SDSU and California have been added as locks after Friday victories.

That leaves five at-large spots still up for grabs. Florida, Washington, Illinois and Virginia Tech are favorites to get four of those five spots, but any of those teams could be spilled if bubble teams still alive win today or if an at-large bid is swallowed up by a conference upset.

As far as bubble teams still with a shot to play their way in, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Mississippi State are the three to watch on Saturday. I have the Rams as the last team in right now, and they play Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals at 1 p.m ET; Minnesota takes on Purdue at 4 p.m. in the Big Ten semis; and Mississippi State gets Vanderbilt at 3:15 p.m. in the SEC semis. Wins by those teams would make them hard to keep out.

There are also a few conference tournaments where bids could be swallowed up. The Conference USA final is just underway with Houston taking on UTEP. A win by the Cougars over regular-season champ UTEP would surely eat up an at-large bid, as the Miners are almost certainly in. In the WAC, New Mexico State will try to upset Utah State at 10 p.m. The good news for bubble teams is that the host Nevada Wolfpack lost to NMSU, so Utah State won’t have to battle against an adversarial crowd.

In the ACC, two teams — Miami and North Carolina State — are still alive, and either would steal an at-large bid with two more wins. Duke and Georgia Tech will be heavy favorites in the ACC semifinals at 1:30 and 3:30 p.m., but the Canes and Wolfpack are dangerous enough to make it interesting.

I figure that out of Mississippi State, Minnesota and Rhode Island winning and one of the bids getting swallowed up by a spoiler, at least one of those will happen to secure that last open at large spot. If none of those happen, it would bring a Seton Hall, Mississippi, Wichita State or Memphis back into play. If more than one happens, Florida and Virginia Tech beware; and Illinois and Washington better win today to make it certain.

With Marquette playing no one taller than 6-foot-6, the 6-11 sophomore towered over his opposition, making brilliant feeds for scores and looking for his own shot as well. Monroe finished the game with 23 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists and two blocks, and Marquette found itself unable to combat the immense weapon.

“When he first got here, we were amazed at what he could do, especially the way he passes,” said Hoyas junior point guard Chris Wright. “We all know Greg is a phenomenal player. It’s not like he just started doing this in the Big East Tournament. So, we know he’s a great player.”

Georgetown held a working margin for most of the game, but the Golden Eagles occasionally made inroads, including a 10-0 run to draw within one with 13:34 left in the game. Marquette’s top scoring option, Lazar Hayward drove down the left side for the finish and picked up a block call on Hoyas forward Julian Vaughn to boot. Hayward converted the free throw to make the score 48-47, but that swish would be his 15th and final point.

Marquette went cold, scoring just eight points over its next 20 possessions. Georgetown’s bigs — Monroe and Vaughn — made drives to the lane treacherous. Each had two blocks and affected many more shots. The Golden Eagles’ 14-of-34 performance on 2-pointers was not atypical for a team that finished 13th in the Big East in 2-point percentage, but it made a mediocre outside shooting night from deep (6-for-20 on threes) too much to overcome.

“We were on fire the last 10 minutes of the game — we scored six points,” said a sarcastic Marquette head coach Buzz Williams. “We did not create enough paint touches. … Over the last 10 minutes tonight, we were awful, and they were super defensively.”

Without the shots falling, Marquette needed to get second and third chances to score, but Georgetown held the Golden Eagles to just five offensive rebounds. Monroe controlled the defensive glass with on that end.

“One thing that we really have come to notice is that he rebounds like anybody,” said Wright. “And he’s getting all the rebounds — there aren’t a lot of second shots or third shots for anybody.”

When the Golden Eagles couldn’t get a shot to fall down the stretch, the Hoyas made hay. They scored 30 points over the same 20 possessions when Marquette had eight to turn a one-point lead into the final margin of 23. Monroe’s partners in offensive execution started the run.

Wright used his strength and agility to first spin for a bucket against 5-foot-8 Maurice Acker and later draw a foul from the senior, making both free throws. Then, Austin Freeman scored with his left hand on a beautiful drive to the hoop to make it 54-47. After Marquette’s Jimmy Butler countered with an easy layup off a nice feed from Darius Johnson-Odom, Wright scored again to get the lead back to seven with 11:15 to play.

“I just think it was time for me to make a play,” said Wright of his run of scoring in the second half. “I just read the defense and made the correct plays. I wasn’t trying to be selfish or anything. It was just there were openings, and we were capitalizing on it.”

Monroe continued the onslaught with a nice feed to a cutting Wright. The junior was fouled by David Cubillan and made both shots. Hollis Thompson followed moments later with a gorgeous scoop to the hoop for a 60-51 lead with just less than 10 minutes left.

Monroe completed the run with a decisive move to the left baseline for a jam and then a deep three from the left sideline on a feed from Freeman. Finally, after a Vaughn block, Monroe ran the point on the fastbreak, dropping a dime to Freeman who finished and drew the contact from Hayward. The subsequent free throw made the score 70-53 with 4:02 to play, and the competitive portion of proceedings had concluded.

Marquette’s defense was unable to force misses from inside or outside. Georgetown jumped out to a 15-4 lead, scoring on its first seven possessions. Monroe scored six of those points and assisted on two more, establishing the theme of the evening.

“I thought he turned over his right shoulder every single time tonight,” said Williams of Monroe’s post tendency. “He used his left hand every single time tonight. We didn’t play to the scouting report, and we looked really, really bad. And he looked really, really good.”

“They have not had height all year,” said Georgetown head coach John Thompson III of the active but outsized Eagles. “They’ve done a very good job of not letting people expose that or take advantage of that. … We were able to do that today — there’s no doubt about that — and I think we just got on a roll.”

Georgetown made its first six shots and, for the game, hit 6-of-12 3-pointers and 24-of-44 2-pointers for an effective field-goal percentage of 58 percent.

Georgetown is the best shooting team in the Big East by at 56.2 percent eFG in Big East games, and MU’s primary defensive weakness is in field-goal defense where it finished 11th. To keep GU from flying high on offense, Marquette needed to use its strength — forcing turnovers — to exploit Georgetown’s willingness to give it away.

The Golden Eagles forced just nine turnovers, not nearly enough, especially when they made just six 3-pointers. Marquette forced 13 turnovers and made 12 3-pointers in its 60-58 win over Georgetown in Milwaukee on Jan. 6, but it couldn’t duplicate that formula. The 23-point defeat was Marquette’s first double-digit defeat of the season.

“We were as bad as we’ve been all year long defensively,” said Williams, whose team allowed 1.25 points per possession, its greatest total in the Big East game all season. “We’re proud of what we’ve accomplished up until this point — it’s way more than most people anticipated — but having said that, [I’m] disappointed in our execution tonight.”

Georgetown will appear in its record 13th Big East Tournament final on Saturday night. They entered the semis as the only remaining team to have won a Big East Tournament. The Hoyas hold the record with seven titles.

For Georgetown, the appearance in the final is their third in four years but the first for the sophomore Monroe, who came to D.C. with great expectations but saw his team fall flat in his freshman season. A 7-11 conference record, a Tuesday exit at the Big East Tournament and no appearance in the NCAAs were stunning disappointments.

This season has been better, but the Hoyas still finished tied for seventh in the league at 10-8, a large drop-off from the back-to-back regular-season titles the Hoyas captured in the two seasons before Monroe’s arrival. In three days in New York, Monroe has done his best to erase any lingering disappointment from his first season-plus, and he’s now set his team up for a shot at another conference tournament title and a very high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

“A good friend of mine after [Thursday]’s game said there’s nothing better than Friday night in New York City, other than Saturday night in New York City,” said Thompson. “So, we’re going to show up in New York City on Saturday night.”

The Hoyas’ opponent Saturday night will be either West Virginia or Notre Dame. Either way, the Hoyas will have a chance to complete a revenge tournament of sorts. The Hoyas have defeated USF, Syracuse and Marquette in their first three games here. Those teams handed GU four of its eight conference defeats. Georgetown also lost to the Mountaineers and Irish this season.

When asked if the chance to defeat teams that had defeated them was motivation for the Hoyas, Monroe, Wright and Freeman all responded in the affirmative.

Monroe added, “For the record, yes.”

It’s appropriate to give the game’s defining player the last word on this one.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold below. Three new teams earned their bold tags this week — Notre Dame and perhaps a couple of controversial teams, UTEP and Utah State. Even though Florida, Virginia Tech and California are ahead of locks like Wake Forest and Missouri in my S-curve, they could all still lose. I don’t yet trust the committee to definitely put all three in if any were to lose today, though I’d bet they will all make it regardless. That leaves eight bids up for grabs, a number that could still shrink with conference-tournament upsets.

Moving In as At-large: Georgia Tech, Seton Hall

Moving Out as At-large: Memphis, Arizona State

Moving In as Automatic: Robert Morris (America East), Montana (Big Sky), Akron (Mid-American)

Moving Out as Automatic: Quinnipiac (America East), Weber State (Big Sky), Kent State (Mid-American)

On the Bubble: I don’t believe that Seton Hall will ultimately make the field, but I am guessing that the Pirates would get the nod right now. With four top-50 wins and no bad losses, Bobby Gonzalez’s team has a 2009 Providence look about it. Those Friars were left out and these Pirates probably will be, too, but a weaker bubble has them in for now.

There are just so few teams that have anything approaching legitimate cases, and most of them ruined themselves with bad losses yesterday. Arizona State, Memphis and UAB all had crippling losses in its conference quarterfinals, which would make their inclusion on Sunday very surprising. Illinois, Mississippi State and Rhode Island are the only teams on the outside that still have a chance to play their way in. Washington, Mississippi and San Diego State could all play their ways out today.

It appears that most projectors have decided to go with Illinois in that last spot for now. I don’t like the chances of a team with a 77 RPI and five losses in their last six making the field. If the Illini lose to Wisconsin this afternoon, they’re probably out, but there may also be some Arizona-ness about them. At least Arizona’s RPI was at 61, and the Wildcats had six top-50 wins; Illinois has just four. Despite the erratic play of the bubble teams, there seems to be a widespread consensus on the other 33 teams in the field. I do wonder if, in a year where the bubble is so weak, a team like Wichita State or even William & Mary could sneak in. I doubt that will happen, but it wouldn’t be a complete shocker for the committee to reward a mid-major over a team like Mississippi State, Illinois or Seton Hall.

I’ll have an update with locks, last 10 in and last 10 out on Saturday, a final projection on Sunday morning with a possible update in the afternoon if need be.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)
Dayton (12th-to-last out)
Saint Louis (15th-to-last out)

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8, moved to No. 7 for conference balancing)
Clemson (No. 9)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, ninth-to-last in)
Wake Forest (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 8)
Missouri (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 4)
Marquette (No. 7)
Notre Dame (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for conference balancing)
Louisville (No. 10)
Seton Hall (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cincinnati (eighth-to-last out)
South Florida (ninth-to-last out)

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Ohio State (No. 2)
Purdue (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (third-to-last out)

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Arizona State (10th-to-last out)

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Florida (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Mississippi State (fourth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 11)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12)
Wichita State (last out)
Memphis (second-to-last out)
UAB (sixth-to-last out)
William & Mary (seventh-to-last out)
Kent State (11th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)