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Notes: Just a few changes from the last projection. Pittsburgh moves down to a No. 4 and Temple moved up to a No. 3. Louisville moved down to a No. 10 and San Diego State up to a No. 9 to balance the Big East teams. Also, we decided to give Missouri the nod as a No. 10 and drop Wake Forest to a No. 11.

Also, it was painful to watch Minnesota get smoked in the second half by Ohio State, but we stuck to our guns and put the Gophers in as a No. 12. Mississippi State is the team we worry about most.

Moving In as At-large: Minnesota (UTEP and Utah State ate up two at-large bids)

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island

On the Bubble: As with most people, our breakdown came down primarily to five teams — Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Florida, Illinois and Mississippi State — for two spots. We also tried to give fair consideration to Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi, William & Mary and UAB, among others. At the end, though, in came down to those five.

All five teams have a variety of strengths and weaknesses, obviously, or they wouldn’t be in the situation that they are. Mississippi State turned out to be the easiest to eliminate thanks to a rash of bad losses compared to a dearth of quality wins, this despite wins over Florida and Vanderbilt in the last two days. The Bulldogs can, of course, play their way in with a win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final. We would reconsider Minnesota and Virginia Tech at that time, but our preliminary determination is that VaTech would be out should MSU knock off UK.

On the other end, Minnesota became the easiest team to add. With such a long list of quality wins (Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, vs. Butler, vs. Purdue, Wisconsin) and a strong finish (7-2 heading into the Big Ten Tournament final), the Gophers became the top choice of these five even with a loss to Ohio State. A blowout loss for Tubby Smith’s club against OSU could make us reconsider, but that would be very late in the game to make a change.

With Minnesota in the field and owning a recent road win at Illinois to help get there, it seemed unlikely that the Big Ten would get the last two spots. Illinois, like Minnesota, has its share of strong wins (vs. Wisconsin, at Wisconsin, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, at Clemson), but the Illini played very poorly down the stretch until the Big Ten Tournament and has a bunch of bad losses. It feels cruel to leave a team out after a double-overtime loss to a No. 2 seed, but that’s what we’re doing.

That left us with Virginia Tech vs. Florida. Neither team has terrific wins, but VaTech went 10-6 in the stronger ACC (albeit against a weaker-than-normal schedule). VaTech also had a much stronger finish until the slip-up in the ACC Tournament. Florida also has the worse losses — at South Carolina, at Georgia and, inexplicably, at home to South Alabama. VaTech’s losses at BC and to Miami in the ACC Tourney look less egregious in that light.

We’re not entirely comfortable with the SEC getting just three teams, but the quality wins just aren’t there. We’d also prefer to have a different last two in than Joe Lunardi, but you gotta go with what you believe will happen. We think it’s very close among these last two in and last two out, and we definitely were tortured by the decision.

Seeding: The main areas where we had extended debates over seeding were at the No. 3 and 4 lines. We like Villanova as a No. 3 and Purdue, Tennessee and Wisconsin as No. 4’s, but we had four very evenly-matched teams fighting for three No. 3 seeds: Temple, New Mexico, Baylor and Pittsburgh. We decided on New Mexico with its strong record overall, Mountain West regular-season title and 4-0 record against the top 25. We also liked Baylor’s many strong wins and fine play in a very good conference. The last decision came down to Temple and Pittsburgh (this is, again, assuming Temple wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament title). The nod went to Pittsburgh because Temple’s top-50 wins are bolstered by three over non-NCAA Tournament team Rhode Island, and we think it’s more likely that a team that tied for second in the Big East will get the nod as a No. 3 seed rather than another mid-major on the same line as New Mexico. This was a very difficult call.

A lot of the mid-seeds were, as usual, quite fungible. The good teams from weaker leagues — Gonzaga, Utah State, Siena, Old Dominion, UTEP — were among the hardest teams to seed. We also ran into issues with too many ACC teams on the 1/4/5/8/9/12 seed lines as well as too many Big East teams on the 2/3/6/7/10/11 seed lines. We’ve made what we thought were the most likely adjustments. We still may decide to move teams differently to accommodate conference balancing. For instance, we’re not all that comfortable with swapping Clemson and Oklahoma State, but we’ll see if there’s a better solution. Perhaps a Georgia Tech victory over Duke will solve that problem for us.

As far as the top two seed lines, we quickly came to a consensus on the eight teams. I do see that Georgetown is not commonly a No. 2 seed in the latest projections at the Bracket Matrix. The Hoyas were our lowest two, but they had enough strong performances on the season, especially once Austin Freeman was fully healthy in the Big East Tournament, to get the nod. It seems like Villanova is the team most commonly supplanting the Hoyas, and the Wildcats are our top No. 3, so that’s not out of line. We just think the Hoyas as a No. 2 is more likely. They had a very difficult conference schedule, playing Syracuse and Villanova twice, which makes the 10-8 league record a bit less onerous. That record is 13-9 when you include the Big East Tournament, which is not as far from 13-6, Nova’s conference record including postseason. You also have to consider that Georgetown has two more wins against the top 50 and played a much tougher non-conference schedule.

At the top line, there seems to be a growing push for West Virginia to be a No. 1, and we will indeed reconsider Duke if the Blue Devils lose in the ACC Tournament final. For now, though, under the assumption that Duke pulls the double with an ACC regular-season and tournament title, it would be hard to deny the Devils their due.

Upcoming Updates: With the way this weekend has gone, we fully expect to need to update this projection after the set of 1 p.m. tournament title games. We’ll put up a new post with any changes in the 3 p.m. EDT hour. Thanks again for your comments on various rematch/hosting issues — it’s a been a long week.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes

1. The most important thing to note is that this is our final bracket if the four remaining games go to the favorites. We’re projecting Duke, Kentucky, Temple and Ohio State as winners, and we will update this bracket around 3:30 p.m. EDT if one of those first three don’t happen — not sure there will be a need if Ohio State loses but perhaps. The most obvious update will be Mississippi State grabbing a bid with a win over UK.

2. I will have a brief breakdown in a few hours after I pour water on my eyes and have a chance to breathe — it’s been a long week at MSG and working on this bracket.

3. What a crazy last two days it’s been for the bubble, huh?

4. The “OSU” that was moved down one seed line was Oklahoma State not Ohio State.

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold below. Three new teams earned their bold tags this week — Notre Dame and perhaps a couple of controversial teams, UTEP and Utah State. Even though Florida, Virginia Tech and California are ahead of locks like Wake Forest and Missouri in my S-curve, they could all still lose. I don’t yet trust the committee to definitely put all three in if any were to lose today, though I’d bet they will all make it regardless. That leaves eight bids up for grabs, a number that could still shrink with conference-tournament upsets.

Moving In as At-large: Georgia Tech, Seton Hall

Moving Out as At-large: Memphis, Arizona State

Moving In as Automatic: Robert Morris (America East), Montana (Big Sky), Akron (Mid-American)

Moving Out as Automatic: Quinnipiac (America East), Weber State (Big Sky), Kent State (Mid-American)

On the Bubble: I don’t believe that Seton Hall will ultimately make the field, but I am guessing that the Pirates would get the nod right now. With four top-50 wins and no bad losses, Bobby Gonzalez’s team has a 2009 Providence look about it. Those Friars were left out and these Pirates probably will be, too, but a weaker bubble has them in for now.

There are just so few teams that have anything approaching legitimate cases, and most of them ruined themselves with bad losses yesterday. Arizona State, Memphis and UAB all had crippling losses in its conference quarterfinals, which would make their inclusion on Sunday very surprising. Illinois, Mississippi State and Rhode Island are the only teams on the outside that still have a chance to play their way in. Washington, Mississippi and San Diego State could all play their ways out today.

It appears that most projectors have decided to go with Illinois in that last spot for now. I don’t like the chances of a team with a 77 RPI and five losses in their last six making the field. If the Illini lose to Wisconsin this afternoon, they’re probably out, but there may also be some Arizona-ness about them. At least Arizona’s RPI was at 61, and the Wildcats had six top-50 wins; Illinois has just four. Despite the erratic play of the bubble teams, there seems to be a widespread consensus on the other 33 teams in the field. I do wonder if, in a year where the bubble is so weak, a team like Wichita State or even William & Mary could sneak in. I doubt that will happen, but it wouldn’t be a complete shocker for the committee to reward a mid-major over a team like Mississippi State, Illinois or Seton Hall.

I’ll have an update with locks, last 10 in and last 10 out on Saturday, a final projection on Sunday morning with a possible update in the afternoon if need be.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)
Dayton (12th-to-last out)
Saint Louis (15th-to-last out)

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8, moved to No. 7 for conference balancing)
Clemson (No. 9)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, ninth-to-last in)
Wake Forest (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 8)
Missouri (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 4)
Marquette (No. 7)
Notre Dame (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for conference balancing)
Louisville (No. 10)
Seton Hall (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cincinnati (eighth-to-last out)
South Florida (ninth-to-last out)

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Ohio State (No. 2)
Purdue (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (third-to-last out)

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Arizona State (10th-to-last out)

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Florida (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Mississippi State (fourth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 11)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12)
Wichita State (last out)
Memphis (second-to-last out)
UAB (sixth-to-last out)
William & Mary (seventh-to-last out)
Kent State (11th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday.

There is a distinctly western flavor to the teams moving into the field. The Pac-10 may turn out to be the greatest beneficiary of the inability of most bubble teams to win down the stretch. Arizona State finished 12-6 in conference after a win over UCLA, and Washington had a strong second half to put Oregon State away in Corvallis. SDSU finished 11-5 in the Mountain West after having no trouble at all with lowly Air Force in Colorado Springs. Mississippi stormed back in the second half to knock off Arkansas in Fayetteville. It’s a 20 minutes that may prove decisive to the Rebels’ season.

Atlantic 10: The closing weeks of the season couldn’t have been any worse for the Atlantic 10, which once appeared likely to get five bids. In their last seven games of the season, Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island combined to win just five times — that’s 5-16. One of those wins was in a game between Charlotte and Rhode Island, and another was a home win over winless Fordham for Rhody. None of the five wins was against any of the league’s top three. Saint Louis has passed Charlotte and Dayton on my at-large model, but URI may be the only salvageable team. With a run to the finals of the A-10 Tournament, the Rams could dance.

Temple, Xavier and Richmond continue to play for seeding, all winning over the weekend. The A-10 Tournament champ, assuming it’s one of those three and that justice is served, should be rewarded with a No. 4 seed.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 4)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)

ACC: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech got the wins they needed this weekend. The Demon Deacons were victorious at home against Clemson, and the Hokies went to Atlanta and stunned Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are now in serious trouble with that ugly 7-9 conference record. In Georgia Tech’s defense, it did play the second-toughest conference schedule, getting Duke twice and Maryland on the road. The Jackets have four top-50 wins to their credit but none since January. GaTech plays North Carolina in a 7-10 game on Thursday, which is a must-win. The question is whether Paul Hewitt’s team will need a victory over Maryland in the quarterfinals. I suspect a respectable showing should be enough.

Duke and Maryland closed out their seasons with victories over lesser opposition to tie for the ACC regular-season title. The Blue Devils remain a No. 1 seed, West Virginia being the No. 2 with the only legitimate case for a No. 1 right now. Maryland could move all the way up to a No. 2 or 3 with an ACC Tournament title. A trip to the final should ensure a top-four seed.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Wake Forest (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Georgia Tech (second-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas State’s home loss to Iowa State on Saturday should all but eliminate the Wildcats from consideration for a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Baylor continues to have trouble finding the respect it deserves. The Bears have identical conference and overall records as K-State, and Baylor’s conference record was achieved against a slightly tougher schedule. Both teams have four wins against top-25 teams, and Baylor has an extra top-100 win. Their RPIs are a spot apart, and yet K-State is a 2 or 3 but Baylor is a 5 or 6? That can’t be right, and I don’t think it is. I suspect the committee agrees with me.

Oklahoma State clinched its berth with a blowout win over last-place Nebraska. Texas was dismantled by said Baylor team in Waco and drops to a No. 7 seed with a 9-7 conference mark.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Baylor (No. 3)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)

Big East: Syracuse’s loss to Louisville clinched the Cardinals’ bid without hurting Syracuse severely. The Orange is still locked into a No. 1 seed and has a shot at the top overall spot should it win the Big East Tournament and Kansas not win the Big 12. West Virginia has emerged as the strongest No. 2 seed after its overtime win at Villanova. WVU could nab the last No. 1 from Duke should the Mountaineers advance further in their conference tournament. I still have Villanova as a solid No. 2, though I see some have dropped the Wildcats to a No. 3. With the main competition coming from Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Purdue and Ohio State — and three of those five teams getting No. 2’s — I suspect VU is in fine shape for now.

The biggest Big East news of the weekend came from Milwaukee where Notre Dame defeated Marquette. The Irish are on the edge of a berth and may make the field even with a pre-quarters loss to the winner of Seton Hall-Providence. That game could be a play-in game for Seton Hall, which defeated Providence on the road this weekend. It would be SHU’s second win over UND and might be the Big East’s best shot at a ninth bid. On the other hand, USF is also in the mix after defeating UConn on Saturday. Dominique Jones’ boys will play DePaul before getting a shot at Georgetown. A win over the Hoyas — which would be USF’s second this season — would make the Bulls hard to keep out.

As for Connecticut, some are saying that the Huskies need two wins in New York, but I’m not sure defeats of St. John’s and Marquette will be enough. I think three is the number, which means UConn would need to also down Villanova on Thursday.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing)
Notre Dame (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
South Florida (sixth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is out right now. With an RPI of 77, the Illini can play their way back to the bubble with a win over Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Friday. Sunday’s 15-point home loss was as bad as it gets and the second time in a row that the Illini were a no-show against one of the Big Ten’s top four at home.

Ohio State will be one of the interesting seeding decisions on Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes are now 13-2 in their last 15 games with wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois (twice) and Michigan State. Their only losses were at home to Purdue and at West Virginia. The question is how much the selection committee will discount the losses OSU suffered in Turner’s absence. The Buckeyes were 3-3 in those six games, but there’s no guarantee they would have won at Butler (eight-point loss) and at Wisconsin (22-point loss) even with Turner (the other loss was at Michigan by nine). This is something I’ll be mulling considerably over the next week. I don’t think the committee will give OSU a benefit of the doubt all the way to a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed seems likely if OSU advances to the Big Ten final or wins it.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (fifth-to-last out)

Mountain West: New Mexico is a No. 2 seed. Color me uncomfortable with that. I’m assuming a couple of major-conference teams will pass the Lobos this week, but what if they win the Mountain West Tournament? At that point, Steve Alford’s club would be 31-3 with a 5-0 record against the RPI top 25. Brigham Young could play its way to as high as a No. 3 seed by winning the MWC Tourney. I think a 4 or a 5 would fit nicely should BYU make it to at least the final, but there is stiff competition for those spots.

On the bubble, UNLV isn’t doing much, but not much is more than enough with teams falling around it. If the Rebels can win their quarterfinal game against Utah on Thursday then they should be in. The Aztecs have Colorado State in the quarters before a shot at New Mexico. Getting to the final should clinch a bid for SDSU, but even losing in the semis may be enough, though I doubt it.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 2)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 12, second-to-last in)

Pac-10: Oh, my! Dick Enberg will be in Los Angeles for the Pac-10 Tournament, and suddenly this year’s dead horse of major-conference basketball has a chance to showcase teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament hopes. Cal, Washington and Arizona State all got out of the final weekend unscathed, and they are all in the field for now. I maintain that Cal is in if it avoids a quarterfinal loss to either Oregon or Washington State. I’m growing more and more certain that should Washington or Arizona State reach the Pac-10 final, that team would also be in. Despite having the better conference record, ASU is probably less likely to make the NCAAs than Washington because the Sun Devils have just one top-50 win and three top-100 wins. The Huskies two top-25 wins and six top-100 wins.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Arizona State (No. 13, last in)

SEC: Kentucky surely locked up a No. 1 seed with its win over Florida on Sunday. Now the Wildcats have a chance at the top overall seed if they can win the SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt had a bad loss to South Carolina at home, and that loss moves the Commodores off the top four seed lines. Tennessee might have the most to gain from a deep SEC Tournament run. Even a No. 2 seed is not out of the question with the tournament title.

In most years, Florida — losers of three straight — would be in a very tough spot and in need of two SEC Tournament wins to clinch a bid. This year, though, the Gators should get in with a win over Auburn on Thursday. Mississippi will play the winner of Tennessee-LSU (in other words, Tennessee) in the quarters on Friday. A Rebels win would probably seal the deal. If they lose in the quarters, though, then I think they’re probably going to be on the outside looking in. After a no-show performance against Tennessee on Saturday night, Mississippi State probably needs to reach the SEC Tournament final to have a legitimate shot at a bid. To get there, MSU will likely have to beat Florida and Vanderbilt, which means the Bulldogs will have earned their bid.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Florida (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Mississippi (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (ninth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Another year, another second-place Missouri Valley Conference team that will likely be left out of the field. The Shockers have 10 top-100 wins but just one against the top 50 (Northern Iowa at home). In recent seasons, similar profiles were not good enough for Creighton or Illinois State, so I’m guessing the same will be true of WSU, which rarely shows up on last-teams-out lists for most projectors. I’ve given the Shockers ample love on mine.

There are two big games for bubble teams tonight in the West Coast Conference and the CAA. Saint Mary’s plays Gonzaga, and William & Mary plays Old Dominion. Let’s compare Gonzaga and Old Dominion for a moment. Both have RPIs in the mid-30s. Both have one top-25 win. Gonzaga has two more top-50 wins but ODU equals the Bulldogs in top-100 wins with eight. Gonzaga has one extra bad loss. ODU went 15-3 in a stronger conference than the one in which Gonzaga achieved its 14-2. ODU does have three more losses but also a tougher strength of schedule. Both teams have 25 wins. I’m not implying that Old Dominion should be ahead of Gonzaga, but how can one team be a No. 5 or 6 seed and the other not get in if it loses its conference tournament final? Surely that’s not the case. Gonzaga is definitely over-respected in comparison to the other top mid-major teams because of the Zags’ reputation, but I suspect Old Dominion will get in regardless of what happens in Richmond on Monday night.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Utah State (No. 10)
Siena (No. 11)
Memphis (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
UAB (last out)
Wichita State (third-to-last out)
William & Mary (eighth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (10th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field.

On the wrong side of the bubble, a couple of Pac-10 teams are inching closer. Arizona State and Washington both have shots at bids if they reach the conference tournament final. Their potential semifinal matchup in the Pac-10 Tournament could prove vital. San Diego State had a routine home win and actually has a profile similar to UAB’s, but the Blazers got the nod thanks to a better overall record and two more wins against top-100 opponents. Then there’s Mississippi with its weak record — 8-7 — in the lesser half of the SEC, but the Rebels do have 20 wins against a pretty solid schedule. Connecticut, Mississippi State and Dayton each suffered damaging losses this week. For UConn and UD, the losses ensure conference records that will be eyesores to the committee. For MSU, the loss to a weak opponent — Auburn — is the Bulldogs’ fifth against teams outside of the RPI top-100. Set that against Rick Stansbury’s team’s one top-50 win. As you can see, determining the most deserving at-large teams was a lot like naming the most reasonable talking head on one of those awful afternoon ESPN shows.

Atlantic 10: Temple had a very fine win at Saint Louis this week. With that victory, the Owls are one step closer to a share of the A-10 title. Fran Dunphy’s club could peak at a No. 4 seed with a good run in Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament. Xavier defeated Fordham and, like Temple, figures to slot somewhere on the 4-6 range. Richmond had a terrific comeback win over Dayton on Thursday, a victory that may have sealed the Flyers’ fate. The Spiders head to a sputtering Charlotte team to play for seeding.

URI got a win it needed against Charlotte, but it can’t allow itself to fall at UMass. A home loss to the Minutemen in their last regular-season game a year ago doomed the Rams’ at-large hopes. URI’s RPI is in the 20s now but is unlikely to stay there without a run to the A-10 final, though it needn’t get that far to secure a bid. Dayton is the tough-luck team in the nation this year. The Flyers could probably share that honor with Penn State, but the Nittany Lions aren’t in a fight for an NCAA bid. Brian Gregory’s team has lost seven straight games decided by five points or fewer — with a six-point overtime win against Duquesne thrown in. Dayton hosts Saint Louis on Saturday needing a win just to get to 9-7 in conference. That’s not a league record from the A-10 that will impress many committee members, though St. Joseph’s got in with a 9-7 record and a run to the A-10 final in 2008. That’s the task for the Flyers.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for conference balancing)
Rhode Island (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing; fifth-to-last in)
Dayton (eighth-to-last out)

ACC: Home wins this week for Clemson and Florida State locked in a winning conference record for both teams. The losses for Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have dropped both teams into improbably precarious positions. Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech this weekend, and Wake Forest hosts Clemson. GaTech needs a win just to get to .500 in conference, and the Demon Deacons are desperate to stop a slide that has reached four straight. The good news is that the bubble is so weak that both teams still maintain a margin for error.

Virginia Tech halted a three-game losing streak with a home win over NC State on Wednesday, but the Hokies now travel to Georgia Tech where a loss would drop VT closer to the cutline. Still, a 9-7 record in the ACC — that’s where the Hokies would be with a loss in Atlanta — is probably stronger than what most of the teams near the bubble will be able to show to the committee, despite just two top-50 wins.

Maryland’s seed is starting to fall better in line with its play now that the Terps have defeated Duke. Maryland now has six top-50 wins.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Clemson (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 8)
Georgia Tech (No. 10)
Wake Forest (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big 12: I nearly bolded Oklahoma State, but a Cowboys loss to Nebraska in Stillwater on Saturday followed by a first-round Big 12 Tournament loss next week could conceivably put OSU in jeopardy. A win over the Cornhuskers will remove all doubt.

I still see Baylor, Texas A&M and Texas as being underseeded in many projections. It doesn’t seem that many people understand just how strong the Big 12 is this year. Do a side-by-side comparison of Vanderbilt and Baylor’s qualifications and tell me how they can be 2-3 seed lines apart. Also, I think Texas is suffering from bad public relations. Because the Longhorns aren’t No. 1-seed good, they’re being dropped down further than they should. This is still a 23-7 team with five wins against top-50 teams and nine against top-100 teams without a single loss to a team outside the top 100.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas A&M (No. 4)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8, moved to No. 7 for conference balancing)

Big East: The winner of Saturday’s West Virginia-Villanova matchup has the inside track at unseating Duke for the last No. 1 seed. A WVU loss would give Villanova a sweep, making it more difficult for the committee to slot the Mountaineers over the Wildcats even if WVU outperforms Villanova at the Big East Tournament. Pittsburgh stays firmly on the No. 3 seed line thanks to Ashton Gibbs’ 30-foot game-winner against Providence. A Pittsburgh win over Rutgers combined with a WVU win at Nova would create a three-way tie for second place in the Big East, and the Panthers would win the tiebreaker. Should that happen, Pitt would be a No. 2 seed in the Big East Tournament for the second straight year, despite all the personnel losses from last season.

Georgetown has now lost two straight as well as one of its top players in Austin Freeman. The assumption is that Freeman will be back for the Big East Tournament, if not sooner, but that’s not a guarantee for the junior recently diagnosed with diabetes. Marquette continues to rise, this time after a dominant victory over Louisville. I’m going to leave the Cardinals off the list of locks. They are just a spot ahead of Wake Forest in my at-large model and have just three top-50 wins.

Notre Dame might clinch a bid with a win at Marquette on Saturday, though the Golden Eagles have lost just once since Jan. 23. Short of a road victory, Notre Dame will need a win and probably two at Madison Square Garden to boost an RPI that currently sits at 63. UConn has to win at USF and then likely add two more at MSG to secure a bid. The best the Huskies can do is 8-10 in conference, and that will be hard for the committee to ignore, regardless of how difficult their schedule has been. USF and Seton Hall continued to stay within reach of the field thanks to road victories over the two worst teams in the Big East. Both teams need to win until Thursday’s Big East quarterfinals, and then we’ll see where each stands if that happens.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Marquette (No. 8)
Louisville (No. 9)
Notre Dame (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; seventh-to-last in)
Connecticut (fifth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (seventh-to-last out)
South Florida (10th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State appear likely to finish 14-4 in conference with Wisconsin a step behind. All four teams have played portions of the season without their best players. Of course, Purdue is the only team that will continue to play that way. These four teams may look similar, but let’s keep in mind how many top-50 wins each has: Purdue, 6; Ohio State, 5; Wisconsin, 6; Michigan State, 3. Also, MSU lost Kalin Lucas for just one full game. On the other hand, Evan Turner missed six, and Jon Leuer missed nine. Just some things to think about.

At the bubble, Illinois continues to hang around, but I’m not sure the Illini can survive a home loss to Wisconsin. The Illini’s RPI will be in the 70s with a loss, and I doubt their quality wins can overcome an 18-13 record (plus a loss in the Big Ten Tournament) with that RPI. Minnesota, meanwhile, is done. Twenty-eight point losses to teams going nowhere tend to do that to a team. I suppose that the Gophers could be in the mix with a run to the Big Ten final, but let me know when that happens.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 13, last in)

Mountain West: The Lobos continued to do what they do — win by less than one would expect but win nonetheless. This time, it was a seven-point home win against seventh-place TCU, New Mexico’s 14th straight win. Steve Alford’s team may not be that good, but it sure does win a lot, and I figure that will be rewarded. I’m less comfortable with Brigham Young as a No. 6, as I could see the Cougars higher. BYU, though, is just 4-4 vs. the top 50 without a top-25 win.

UNLV is one of the primary beneficiaries of the weak bubble. Last season, the three straight February losses might have doomed the Rebels, but they still look fairly comfortable this season. Lon Kruger’s bunch will close the season with Wyoming at home before hosting the Mountain West Tournament. Two more wins should be enough. San Diego State is basically UNLV with two fewer quality wins, and that makes all the difference. SDSU needs to close out the season with a win at Air Force and probably reach the MWC final to get in. Although, that appeared to be the formula last March as well, and it didn’t work out (unjustly, I’d maintain).

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (second-to-last out)

Pac-10: I won’t put Cal as a lock yet, but I’m definitely more bullish on the Bears than most. Assuming Cal finishes out the regular season with a win at Stanford and avoids an upset in the Pac-10 quarterfinals, I think the Bears will be in. Washington and Arizona State have been helped by the bubble slippage. ASU has now won seven of nine with its only losses being at Washington and at Cal. Washington has won three straight after the disappointing home defeat to USC. The Huskies’ two wins over RPI top-25 teams — Texas A&M and Cal at home — give them the edge over ASU despite the Sun Devils’ superior conference record. The committee has been generous with Pac-10 bubble teams in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gives the nod to one of these two next Sunday.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (last out)
Arizona State (third-to-last out)

SEC: Vanderbilt just edged out Baylor for the last No. 3 seed primarily due to that strong, 12-3 conference record, though I’m not convinced that Baylor’s 10-5 in the Big 12 South is substantively worse. Tennessee got the nod on the No. 4 line, though I could see any number of teams ahead of the Vols here, particularly Maryland, Temple or Michigan State. Either way, both teams are in and — along with UK — will see to it that the SEC’s stay in the NCAA Tournament is longer this year than last.

Florida, like Wake Forest, has failed to move closer to the bubble despite recent losses. The Gators now head to Kentucky. If they don’t win there, they can ill afford to lose their first-round SEC Tournament game, which will likely come against a tricky Auburn or Alabama club. Mississippi and Mississippi State are hanging around, the latter despite a damaging road loss to Auburn on Wednesday. MSU must beat Tennessee at home this weekend to have a shot. As for the Rebels, they do have that neutral-court win over Kansas State in November, but then there’s the 8-7 conference record and the sweep at the hands of Mississippi State. Andy Kennedy’s team visits Arkansas this weekend. A win there will be the first of several steps toward an at-large.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 3)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Florida (No. 11, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi (fourth-to-last out)
Mississippi State (sixth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: With the bubble so weak as it stands, I’m convinced that teams like Northern Iowa, Utah State, UTEP and Old Dominion have terrific shots at at-large bids if they lose in their conference tournaments. There aren’t as many major-conference teams with qualifications to steal bids from teams that dominated mid-major leagues like these teams did all season.

The worrisome thing about the bubble for mid-major teams right now is that so many of them are just barely on the positive side of it. UAB, Memphis, Saint Mary’s and Rhode Island are all among the last five in. We’ve seen in recent seasons, with the omissions of Illinois State, Creighton, San Diego State and Saint Mary’s, among others, that the committee can be unforgiving with the little guy.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10)
Siena (No. 10)
Memphis (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
UAB (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Wichita State (ninth-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Ideally, one would like to avoid any recent NCAA Tournament or regular-season rematches in the first two rounds of the Tournament. This is not a hard and fast rule, though, as Gonzaga and Indiana were matched up early in two consecutive tournaments (2006 and 2007). In this bracket, Illinois and Vanderbilt are set up for a potential regular-season rematch in the second round. To change this would require moving teams a seed line up or down, and the NCAA Tournament committee should be more committed to keeping teams on their true seed line rather than avoiding potential second-round rematches. The NCAA doesn’t reveal which teams were moved from their true seed line, so we don’t know for sure how common this practice is.

The two primary seeding challenges were at the ends of the No. 2 and No. 4 seed lines. Villanova got the nod over New Mexico mainly because it’s hard for me to see a Mountain West team gaining a No. 2 seed without a highly impressive non-conference profile and as long as there are other teams with legitimate cases. New Mexico defeated Cal, Texas A&M and Dayton out of conference but is lacking a top win to earn a No. 2 seed. Ohio State may get that last No. 2 in some projections. At the end of the No. 4 seed line, Michigan State edged out Tennessee, with MSU’s play without Kalin Lucas serving as the tiebreaker.

Moving In as At-large: Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

Moving Out as At-large: Rhode Island, San Diego State

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Quinnipiac (Northeast), North Texas (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Troy (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: After defeating Pittsburgh and Georgetown in a matter of days, Notre Dame jumps into the field and does so with room to spare. It is arguable whether UND deserves to be ahead of Virginia Tech in the last-10-in pecking order, but the Irish are clearly ahead of Illinois, Saint Mary’s and Dayton. And as for VaTech, Notre Dame has a 3-0 edge in wins over RPI top-25 teams. Connecticut stays in despite blowing the lead at home to Louisville on Sunday. That gives the Big East nine teams, which would be a record. I still think it’s unlikely that the Big East will get nine on the key date — March 14. Mid-major upsets in conference tournaments and teams and Big East teams around the bubble knocking each other off — Notre Dame still has Connecticut and Marquette left to play — figure to cut the total to eight eventually. Right now, though, I’m convinced that all nine would get in.

Atlantic 10: It was always unlikely that the Atlantic 10 would get six teams into the NCAAs but five seemed like a real possibility until recently. That is looking less and less likely after Charlotte lost to George Washington and Rhode Island lost to Saint Bonaventure both on the road on Saturday. The Rams drop out of the projection for the first time this season. Both teams are losers of four of their last five, and they meet in Kingston on Wednesday. Dayton had a dominant home win over UMass and now travels to Richmond on Thursday. A sweep during this final week of the season — at Richmond, vs. Saint Louis — should put the Flyers in pretty good shape.

I want to focus primarily on the bubble teams in this breakdown, but I’ve got to mention Xavier’s two-overtime win against Richmond in Cincinnati on Sunday. Richmond’s two weaknesses — getting to the foul line and offensive rebounding — were lethal on Sunday. The loss all but eliminates the Spiders from the conference race. If Temple can avoid the upset at Saint Louis on Wednesday, it now looks likely that the Owls and Musketeers will tie for the conference title at 14-2. Temple won the head-to-head matchup at home by five on Jan. 20.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Xavier (No. 5)
Temple (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 8)
Dayton (No. 13, last in)
Rhode Island (third-to-last out)
Charlotte (11th-to-last out)

ACC: A double-overtime home loss to Maryland puts Virginia Tech back at risk. Two more wins — including the ACC Tournament — figure to get the Hokies in, and a visit from N.C. State on Wednesday should provide one of them. Two more wins would give VaTech 23 on the season and a winning record in conference, which would seem to be a lock for the NCAAs, but if there ever were an ACC team to be left out in such a situation, it would be this one. Sixteen of VaTech’s 21 wins to date are against teams outside the RPI top 100, and the Hokies have no victories against the RPI top 25.

Wake Forest is the ACC team second most at risk after a nine-point home loss to North Carolina. That gives the Demon Deacons three straight losses with a trip to Florida State and a visit from Clemson to finish the season. As strange as it would have been to say two weeks ago when they were the top five seed, the Deacons need to finish 1-1 to make sure they don’t enter the ACC Tournament with work to do.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 9)
Georgia Tech (No. 9)
Wake Forest (No. 10)
Virginia Tech (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)

Big 12: There’s really nothing left to talk about at the bubble. Oklahoma State hardly looked challenged in defeating the top-ranked Jayhawks in Stillwater. There isn’t a Big 12 team within 15 spots of the bubble on either side. The interesting thing, to me, is seeing where all of these teams get seeded. Texas and Baylor are particularly intriguing, as I still see the Bears consistently under-seeded.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)

Big East: Louisville’s road win at Connecticut was crucial because neither of the Cards’ final two games is a likely win. Louisville heads to Marquette on Tuesday before hosting Syracuse on Saturday. A split will ensure a fourth straight NCAA Tournament for Rick Pitino’s team. Two losses mean Louisville will have to win at least once in the Big East Tournament. Marquette’s third straight overtime win in three games — all in the road — puts the Golden Eagles at 10-6 in the Big East with two home games left. Two more wins across the end of the regular season and the Big East Tournament will guarantee Marquette a spot, and even just one might be enough.

Notre Dame’s incredible offenses performances last week have put the Irish on the doorstep to the NCAAs, but there is still plenty of work to do. The Irish host Connecticut on Wednesday before finishing the season at Marquette. A sweep and UND will have punched its ticket. A split sends the Irish to the Big East Tournament needing at least one win. UConn hopes that its squandered Sunday lead doesn’t come back to bite it. The Huskies travel to Notre Dame and USF to end the conference season. As with Notre Dame, a sweep will get UConn in, but a split means Jim Calhoun’s club will have to do some winning at MSG.

On the wrong side of the bubble are Cincinnati, Seton Hall and South Florida. The Bearcats tried to do what Notre Dame did on Saturday — beat a quality opponent on the road — but blew a halftime lead at West Virginia. With Villanova at home and Georgetown on the road to end the season, UC has a chance to make some noise and join the party. Win both, and UC enters the Big East Tournament in terrific shape. Get a split, and the Bearcats will need two wins at a minimum in New York. USF and Seton Hall both need sweeps in the final week of the season to get to .500 in conference and position themselves for a run at an at-large in the Big East Tournament.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 4)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Connecticut (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (fourth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (11th-to-last out)
South Florida (13th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota brings both teams closer to the cut line. The Illini are right on the edge with a trip to Ohio State and a visit from Wisconsin to close out the season. Saturday’s home game against a beatable Minnesota team was the one the Illini needed. The Golden Gophers still have a lot more work to do than some projections would indicate. With an RPI of 69 and mediocre play over the last two months, Minnesota needs to start by winning its last two games — at Michigan, vs. Iowa — and then see where it stands entering the Big Ten Tournament.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Minnesota (ninth-to-last out)

Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego State are the teams in question here. UNLV defeated a poor Air Force team on the road on Saturday, and SDSU was on a bye. Both dropped a few notches in my model. Neither can afford to lose another game until at least the Mountain West Conference semifinals.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
San Diego State (last out)

Pac-10: Cal has now put together six dominant performances in seven with that strange loss to Oregon State mixed in. The Bears throttled Arizona State by 16 on Saturday to capture at least a share of the Pac-10 title. I still see Cal as low as a No. 12 seed in some places, but I suspect the Bears will get to dance if they can beat Stanford at Maples Pavilion on Saturday and the win their quarterfinal Pac-10 Tournament game. ASU’s loss — and the margin of it — probably means Herb Sendek’s team will need to win the conference tournament, but it could perhaps sneak in by winning its next four until the Pac-10 title game. Washington did what it needed to do at Washington State, but the Huskies may not have enough chances to impress down the stretch. The Pac-10’s best shot at getting two bids remains Cal losing in the conference tournament final.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (fifth-to-last out)
Washington (eighth-to-last out)

SEC: Unable to make things easy on themselves, the Gators lost by two at a tough Georgia team on Saturday. With a visit from Vanderbilt followed by a trip to Kentucky to end the regular season, there is suddenly a real chance that Florida could fall out of the field. If the Gators win one of their final two, they should be fine regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi State got the win it needed at South Carolina on Saturday. A win at Auburn followed by a win at home over Tennessee and a quarterfinal victory in the SEC Tournament should get the Bulldogs in. Finally, Mississippi has quietly won two in a row after a three-game losing streak. Much like Minnesota in the Big Ten, the Rebels need to defeat their final two opponents — LSU and Arkansas — to enter the SEC Tournament with a legitimate chance to dance.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Florida (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Mississippi State (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (seventh-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: I’m not convinced that Saint Mary’s can get in as an at-large once all results are in. SMC would need everything to break right in the other conference tournaments. The issue is that SMC won’t have the same opportunities to come up with big wins in its conference tournament as other bubble teams will. Right now, though, I give the Gaels the nod.

I am now convinced that Utah State will get in as an at-large if it loses in the WAC Tournament final. Butler, Gonzaga and Northern Iowa are almost certain to get at-large bids if any of them should lose in its conference tournaments. I also think Old Dominion is in a strong position, though not as strong as Utah State’s. The Colonial has enough good teams to knock off ODU, and the Monarchs will likely be right at the bubble on Selection Sunday if they do lose. Then there’s Siena and UTEP. I don’t think Siena gets in without winning the MAAC Tournament, and I don’t see UTEP as looking much stronger right now, but the Conference USA champ definitely has a better shot than the MAAC champ should it fall short in Tulsa.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Utah State (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 10)
UAB (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
Siena (No. 11)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Memphis (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (10th-to-last out)

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: I’ll discuss the biggest challenge — finding the final at-large team — in the “On the Bubble” section below. As far as seeding challenges, the Big Ten’s penchant for major injuries is causing a lot of ambiguity. Injuries to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas are all likely to affect their teams’ seeding. In this projection, Purdue gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed after word that Hummel will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL suffered at Minnesota on Wednesday. Lucas is back now, of course, but Michigan State lost the game that Lucas was injured in, the game he missed and the game in which he came back. I think the Spartans are being given too large a benefit of the doubt, as MSU lost by 18 to Wisconsin in the game in which Lucas was injured and by 12 at home to Purdue in the game in which he returned, but they move from a No. 6 to a No. 5 because of that injury. Finally, Ohio State lost three of six when Turner was injured, but is 12-3 since his return. OSU gets a bump from a No. 5 to a No. 3. It’s educated guesswork at this point.

Moving In as At-large: (none)

Moving Out as At-large: (none)

Moving In as Automatic: (none)

Moving Out as Automatic: (none)

On the Bubble: This was the toughest time I’ve had this season filling out the field. Thirty-three of the 34 at-large bids were easy to find, but the last team proved elusive. My model showed only five teams with a legitimate case — Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Charlotte and Cincy actually rated out highest, but SDSU’s strong RPI (37) and recent play put the Aztecs in. The Bearcats continue to have an underrated profile thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt. Their four wins against RPI top-50 teams — which includes a sweep of UConn — are more than any other team under consideration. With wins over Gonzaga and Kansas out of conference, Arizona squeaked in last season despite losing five of its last six, including a first-round Pac-10 Tournament loss after a 9-9 conference season. Cincinnati could be this year’s Arizona, only with a finish that’s easier for the committee to stomach.

Atlantic 10: I’m seeing Xavier seeded much lower than No. 5 in most projections, but it’s difficult to understand why. The Musketeers are 11-2 in a strong A-10 with a recent road win against Florida. The 0-5 record against RPI top-25 teams is an eyesore, but the 9-2 record against all other top-100 teams is superb, and XU has no bad losses. By comparison, BYU has no top-25 wins but is seeded — on average — two lines higher. Xavier hosts Richmond — also 11-2 in the A-10 — for a showdown on Saturday.

Temple won ugly on Wednesday, 49-41, over Dayton to join Xavier and Richmond atop the league. The loss kept the Owls’ A-10 title hopes alive with trips to La Salle and Saint Louis on the horizon. The loss for Dayton was its third straight on the road, and the Flyers are now putting themselves in a precarious position. They host UMass and Saint Louis with a trip to Richmond sandwiched in between. They’d do well to sweep those games or will head to Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament with work to do.

The other two A-10 teams nearest the bubble — Rhode Island and Charlotte — are coming off wins against A-10 bottom-feeders and face tougher road tests this weekend. URI heads to Saint Bonaventure and Charlotte visits GW. Consider wins for both teams necessities.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 5)
Richmond (No. 7)
Rhode Island (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Dayton (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Charlotte (second-to-last out)
Saint Louis

ACC: While Maryland continues to show why it is the second best team in the ACC, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Clemson continue to flirt with disaster. After losing to Boston College by 20, VaTech is the most at risk of those three despite having the best conference mark at 8-5. The Hokies have played the easiest conference schedule in the ACC to date. By chance, VT was handed a schedule that saw it face the six other NCAA likelies just once each and facing the five non-NCAA teams twice each. The Selection Committee could and should factor that in if Virginia Tech doesn’t manage to finish better than 9-7 in conference. Saturday’s home matchup with Maryland will be crucial for Seth Greenberg’s team.

Clemson and Georgia Tech are in better shape because of more top-50 wins and tougher schedules, but it would benefit both to finish strong and get to nine wins in conference, though eight wins should be enough. Wake Forest and Florida State are pretty close to locks at this point if they aren’t already, and Maryland is playing for seeding as well.

The other team in need of mention is the conference’s best team, Duke, which hops on to the No. 1 seed line for the first time, in place of the Hummel-less Boilermakers. The Blue Devils would have had a very strong case regardless of what happened with Purdue, though the four losses were keeping them on the No. 2 seed line. Duke is 8-1 against teams ranked from 26-50 in the RPI, but it has just one win against a top-25 team. Purdue and Kansas State — each with 4-1 records against the RPI top 25 — are poised to jump to that No. 1 line. If the Boilermakers are able to defeat Michigan State this weekend, they are likely to jump back up regardless of what Duke does in Charlottesville.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 7)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 9)
Georgia Tech (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for conference balancing)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)

Big 12: Barring a collapse, these seven are playing for seeding, and no one else is joining the party. Kansas and Kansas State continue to win, as neither has lost since their last meeting on Jan. 30. Missouri, Texas, Baylor and Texas A&M figure to get to at least 10-6 in a strong Big 12 and achieve solid seeds with those records. One team that confuses me is Baylor. The Bears are 21-6 with three wins against the top 25 and six against the top 50, yet their average Bracket Matrix seed is a No. 6. Nothing but name recognition could put Michigan State ahead of Baylor in any bracket.

Oklahoma State stumbled in the second game of its difficult stretch, which was no surprise against the much bigger Longhorns. OSU now hosts Kansas before visiting Texas A&M. If the Cowboys can get to 9-7 in conference, they are a lock (they’re 7-6 now). If they fall to 8-8, I still think they’ll be in good shape — much like a Clemson or Georgia Tech out of the ACC — but they might want to win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament to avoid sweaty palms on Selection Sunday.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8)

Big East: Five Big East teams continue to hop around on the top three seed lines, but it’s looking less and less likely that the league will secure a second No. 1 seed. West Virginia’s loss to UConn all but closes the door on the Mountaineers’ shot at a top seed, though Villanova will push Duke, Purdue and Kansas State should the Wildcats go up to Syracuse and win on Saturday night. Pittsburgh falls to a No. 3 after a bad loss at Notre Dame, but the Panthers shouldn’t fall further, although I’m sure they will in many projections.

UConn’s home win over West Virginia was obviously a crucial one, but that 7-8 conference record means the Huskies are not home free yet. They host Louisville on Sunday in a game that figures to put either team in very good shape. The Cardinals blew a halftime lead at home against Georgetown on Tuesday, which drops them back into the last 10 in. Marquette’s comeback and overtime victory at St. John’s was a necessity for Buzz Williams’ team. The Golden Eagles now visit Seton Hall in a game that is big for both teams, especially the Pirates. Many are ignoring Bobby Gonzalez’s bunch, but SHU has now won four of five and has three winnable games remaining. The Pirates are in need of the quality victory a win over MU would provide.

Notre Dame continues to hang around. Even without Luke Harangody, the Irish drilled Pittsburgh on Wednesday to get to 7-8 in conference. If they can come out on the other end of their brutal upcoming schedule — at Georgetown, Connecticut, at Marquette — with two wins, they will be under serious consideration.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Georgetown (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Connecticut (No. 9)
Louisville (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for conference balancing; eighth-to-last in)
Marquette (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (last out)
Seton Hall (fourth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (sixth-to-last out)
South Florida (13th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois is not safe even after defeating Michigan in Ann Arbor in an ugly contest on Tuesday. The Illini are now 10-5 in conference, but I’m convinced they need two more wins among their last three games and the Big Ten Tournament to make the field. Illinois hosts Minnesota on Saturday before traveling to Ohio State and then hosting Wisconsin. There’s a good chance that Illinois gets either Michigan State or Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. A 1-3 finish shouldn’t be good enough. It may seem strange if indeed the Big Ten gets only four teams when all four are seeded on the top five seed lines, but there is a recent precedent. Last season, the Big East got seven teams, all seeded No. 6 or better. West Virginia was No. 6 and had a 10-8 conference record, the same as Providence, which did not make the field.

The Purdue-Minnesota game was devastating for both sides. Purdue, of course, lost Hummel for the season, and Minnesota’s defeat probably eliminates it from at-large consideration.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 12, moved to No. 11 seed for conference balancing; fourth-to-last in)

Mountain West: San Diego State’s hold on a bid is tenuous at best, but UNLV has slipped into the last 10 out as well. In their last five games, the Rebels have lost three times and won at home against mediocre opponents — Colorado State and Texas Christian. Lon Kruger’s club will finish the season with Air Force and Wyoming, meaning UNLV is short on chances to make a late impression. The Feb. 6 win over BYU will be more than five weeks old when the committee unveils its bracket, so UNLV would do well to get a quality win in the conference tournament.

New Mexico continues to underwhelm John Gasaway, but the Lobos also continue to do what they set out to do in each game: win. They have 12 straight victories after starting 0-2 in conference. The showdown is on Saturday in Provo where New Mexico hopes to clinch the regular-season title with a sweep of Brigham Young. New Mexico is being seeded anywhere from 2-5, and BYU is being seeded anywhere from 3-6. Saturday’s result might help clarify that.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 5)
UNLV (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 13, last in)

Pac-10: After defeating Arizona, 95-71, in Berkeley on Thursday night, the Cal Bears have won five of six with all five wins coming by at least 12 points (and the loss as well). There’s still talk of Cal being left out if it loses in the Pac-10 Tournament, but with each dominant victory, the Bears are becoming harder and harder to omit. Along with it being unheard of for a major-conference regular-season champion to be left out of the field, Cal also has a very strong RPI (23) and strength of schedule (11) on its side. Not on Cal’s side are zero top-50 wins and no more chances to get one. It’s difficult to get in as an at-large without a top-50 win. A strong finish from Washington would help Cal, since that’s the Bears’ best win. Right now, in my at-large model, Cal is hanging around Marquette and Rhode Island.

Arizona State and Washington continue to be among the last 10 out, but both will have trouble adding to their lists of quality wins. ASU does have a shot at a big one when it visits Cal on Saturday, though that’s a Catch-22 for the league. A Cal loss might put the Bears in trouble for an at-large bid while vaulting ASU into the last few in. I still maintain that the Pac-10 will get two teams if Cal does not win the conference tournament, but it’s going to be close.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (fifth-to-last out)
Washington (seventh-to-last out)

SEC: I’ve already given detailed thoughts on what I think about Mississippi State’s inclusion on some brackets, so I won’t belabor the point. Florida, on the other hand, has recovered from what at the time looked like a very damaging home loss to Xavier. With a win at Mississippi and at home to Tennessee, Florida is in good position. Still, that trip to Georgia looks scary, and finishing at home against Vandy and then at Kentucky will be difficult. Two wins in three will surely get the Gators in, but those two wins may be hard to come by.

A 2-1 finish to the conference season should be enough to lock in a No. 1 seed for Kentucky regardless of what happens at the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats have played their best basketball since losing at South Carolina, winning eight straight by an average margin of 12.5 points. The other two locks in the SEC — Vanderbilt and Tennessee — have been leaking oil of late. After being unable to hit a shot in the home loss to Kentucky, the Commodores couldn’t stop Georgia’s offense but managed to win in overtime on Thursday. With trips to Arkansas and Florida ahead, VU better get things righted or the seed could fall. Tennessee has now lost three of five after falling at Florida on Tuesday. The Vols’ offense has only broken the 1.00-PPP threshold three times in its last 12 games. Tennessee hosts Kentucky on Saturday.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
Florida (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi State (eighth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: Northern Iowa had a pretty damaging loss to previously conference-winless Evansville this week. UNI still looks like a pretty solid at-large candidate assuming the Panthers reach the Missouri Valley Tournament final.

With its 11th straight win in Hattiesburg on Wednesday, UTEP is looking more and more like a potential at-large team if the Miners don’t take the C-USA Tournament. They rate out about the same as Cal in my at-large model. Besides a home win over Butler, UAB has a pretty thin résumé, which means upcoming matchups with Memphis and UTEP will be critical for Mike Davis’ team. Memphis probably played itself out of serious at-large consideration with a 17-point loss at Houston on Wednesday.

One other mid-major to note is Utah State. The Aggies have now won 13 straight to move to 25-6 overall and 14-2 in the WAC. With an early-season 10-point win over BYU in their back pocket, they’re setting themselves up for serious at-large consideration should they fall short in the WAC Tournament.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 8)
UTEP (No. 10)
UAB (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Old Dominion (No. 11)
Siena (No. 12)
Saint Mary’s (third-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (ninth-to-last out)
Memphis (10th-to-last out)
William & Mary (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)