Bracket Junkie | BaselineStats.com: College Basketball Stats and Analysis

March 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Bracketing Challenges: Ideally, one would like to avoid any recent NCAA Tournament or regular-season rematches in the first two rounds of the Tournament. This is not a hard and fast rule, though, as Gonzaga and Indiana were matched up early in two consecutive tournaments (2006 and 2007). In this bracket, Illinois and Vanderbilt are set up for a potential regular-season rematch in the second round. To change this would require moving teams a seed line up or down, and the NCAA Tournament committee should be more committed to keeping teams on their true seed line rather than avoiding potential second-round rematches. The NCAA doesn’t reveal which teams were moved from their true seed line, so we don’t know for sure how common this practice is.

The two primary seeding challenges were at the ends of the No. 2 and No. 4 seed lines. Villanova got the nod over New Mexico mainly because it’s hard for me to see a Mountain West team gaining a No. 2 seed without a highly impressive non-conference profile and as long as there are other teams with legitimate cases. New Mexico defeated Cal, Texas A&M and Dayton out of conference but is lacking a top win to earn a No. 2 seed. Ohio State may get that last No. 2 in some projections. At the end of the No. 4 seed line, Michigan State edged out Tennessee, with MSU’s play without Kalin Lucas serving as the tiebreaker.

Moving In as At-large: Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

Moving Out as At-large: Rhode Island, San Diego State

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Quinnipiac (Northeast), North Texas (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Troy (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: After defeating Pittsburgh and Georgetown in a matter of days, Notre Dame jumps into the field and does so with room to spare. It is arguable whether UND deserves to be ahead of Virginia Tech in the last-10-in pecking order, but the Irish are clearly ahead of Illinois, Saint Mary’s and Dayton. And as for VaTech, Notre Dame has a 3-0 edge in wins over RPI top-25 teams. Connecticut stays in despite blowing the lead at home to Louisville on Sunday. That gives the Big East nine teams, which would be a record. I still think it’s unlikely that the Big East will get nine on the key date — March 14. Mid-major upsets in conference tournaments and teams and Big East teams around the bubble knocking each other off — Notre Dame still has Connecticut and Marquette left to play — figure to cut the total to eight eventually. Right now, though, I’m convinced that all nine would get in. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona State, Baylor, Butler, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Dayton, Florida, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Siena, South Florida, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Xavier | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: Big Ten injuries likely to affect seeds

February 26, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: I’ll discuss the biggest challenge — finding the final at-large team — in the “On the Bubble” section below. As far as seeding challenges, the Big Ten’s penchant for major injuries is causing a lot of ambiguity. Injuries to Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas are all likely to affect their teams’ seeding. In this projection, Purdue gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed after word that Hummel will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL suffered at Minnesota on Wednesday. Lucas is back now, of course, but Michigan State lost the game that Lucas was injured in, the game he missed and the game in which he came back. I think the Spartans are being given too large a benefit of the doubt, as MSU lost by 18 to Wisconsin in the game in which Lucas was injured and by 12 at home to Purdue in the game in which he returned, but they move from a No. 6 to a No. 5 because of that injury. Finally, Ohio State lost three of six when Turner was injured, but is 12-3 since his return. OSU gets a bump from a No. 5 to a No. 3. It’s educated guesswork at this point.

Moving In as At-large: (none)

Moving Out as At-large: (none)

Moving In as Automatic: (none)

Moving Out as Automatic: (none)

On the Bubble: This was the toughest time I’ve had this season filling out the field. Thirty-three of the 34 at-large bids were easy to find, but the last team proved elusive. My model showed only five teams with a legitimate case — Charlotte, Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Charlotte and Cincy actually rated out highest, but SDSU’s strong RPI (37) and recent play put the Aztecs in. The Bearcats continue to have an underrated profile thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt. Their four wins against RPI top-50 teams — which includes a sweep of UConn — are more than any other team under consideration. With wins over Gonzaga and Kansas out of conference, Arizona squeaked in last season despite losing five of its last six, including a first-round Pac-10 Tournament loss after a 9-9 conference season. Cincinnati could be this year’s Arizona, only with a finish that’s easier for the committee to stomach. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Conference USA, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robbie Hummel, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, St. John's, Temple, Tennessee, UAB, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, WAC, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier | Comments (6)

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of posturing, no changes in at-large field

February 19, 2010 – by Brendon

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Bracketing Challenges: There were a couple of challenges I want to make note of, the first coming at the end of the No. 3 seedline. The battle here was between Vanderbilt and Baylor, who have very similar profiles. Both teams are 19-5 and have two wins against the RPI top 25. I went with the Commodores primarily because their two top-25 wins come in just three chances. Also, their conference RPI is 3. Only Kansas (1) and Duke (2) are ranked higher for play within the conference.

The other thing I wanted to address is Wake Forest. After the Demon Deacons’ loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, I dropped them from a No. 5 to a No. 7, which is quite harsh. Wake ranks 23rd in my BTI seed model, which should equate to a No. 6 seed. However, Butler and Ohio State rate out on the No. 7 seedline, and I feel like both would surely be higher than that right now. So, I bumped the Bears and Buckeyes to No. 6’s at the expense of Richmond and Wake Forest. One could argue that Xavier — which is ranked 21st in the model — should have been the one to get bumped down, and I wouldn’t put up too much resistance in my rebuttal. I just didn’t go in that direction. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, California, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Conference USA, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, St. Mary's, Texas, UAB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Washington, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (1)

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of bubble movement

February 15, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Note: Vanderbilt and Illinois played in the regular season. The Selection Committee tries to avoid regular-season and recent NCAA Tournament matchups in the first two rounds, but it was impossible to find Illinois another spot on the No. 12 seedline, so we’re keeping the bracket the way it is.

Bracketing Challenges: There was a lot of potential movement among the top five seedlines. With teams like Baylor and Pittsburgh picking up big wins while West Virginia and Georgetown dropping tough games, a bunch of teams met around the third seedline. New Mexico actually rated out as a No. 2 seed, but it’s hard to imagine such a low-profile mid-major being seeded so high, despite seven wins against top-50 teams. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Mid-Majors, Mississippi, Pac-10, SEC | Comments (4)

Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

February 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bruce Weber, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Cornell, Demetri McCamey, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Frank Martin, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Harvard, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Ivy League, Jerome Randle, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Pat Knight, Purdue, Richmond, Rick Barnes, SEC, Seth Greenberg, Seton Hall, South Carolina, South Florida, St. John's, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: WVU, Nova to play for top seed

February 8, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: After a weekend of travel, I’ll have to be brief. Look for a full breakdown on Friday. Villanova drops to the No. 2 seedline after a lopsided defeat at Georgetown. The Wildcats will have an immediate chance to take back that spot from the team that replaced them — West Virginia — when the two teams meet on Big Monday. Clemson sees another loss drop it near the cutline, and Florida State makes the jump to take the Tigers’ place. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona State, Cincinnati, Clemson, Dayton, Florida State, Georgetown, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier | Comments (0)

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

February 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing Challenges: Well, it finally happened. After relatively smooth bracketing so far this season, I ran into a bunch of problems trying to separate teams from the same conference. The Big East and ACC grouped teams in the 2-3-6-7-10-11 seeds; the Big 12 grouped in the 1-4-5-8-9 seeds. Therefore, I had to move a record five teams up and five teams down by one seedline. We don’t know how common this is for the NCAA Tournament committee because it doesn’t reveal this information like I do, but I would guess it happens with 2-4 teams per year. I’m hopeful that these uneven distributions work themselves out by mid-March.

It’s important to note that Cincinnati was moved from its true seedline of No. 10 because three of the spots where the Bearcats could have played already had a Big East team in the eight-team pod. In the other spot, the No. 7 seed was Xavier, a team that Cincinnati plays every year. The NCAA prefers to avoid those rematches early in the tournament, and that’s especially the case since UC-XU is a notorious rivalry.

Breakdown: One of the surprising parts of this bracket to many of you might be Michigan State’s position as a No. 3 seed after its loss to Wisconsin. MSU was being propped up by that undefeated conference record, and now that it’s no longer, we can evaluate the Spartans on their paltry list of quality victories. Michigan State has just two wins against top-50 RPI teams — Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home, and Sparty has yet to play Ohio State or Purdue. The Boilermakers are now a No. 2 seed even though they’ve actually played an easier conference schedule than MSU so far, but they have four top-50 wins, including Tennessee and West Virginia out of conference. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged ACC, Alabama, Andy Kennedy, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Augustus Gilchrist, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, Bruce Weber, Butler, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Connecticut, Cornell, Dayton, DePaul, Derrick Williams, Dominique Jones, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Gary Williams, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Leonard Hamilton, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Pac-10, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Rutgers, Scott Drew, SEC, Seton Hall, Siena, South Carolina, South Florida, Stan Heath, Stanford, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier | Comments (3)

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

February 1, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured. Read More »

Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective | Tagged Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Billy Donovan, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Demetri McCamey, DePaul, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Georgetown, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Illinois, Illinois State, Indiana, Jimmy Butler, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Luke Harangody, Marquette, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Providence, Purdue, Rutgers, Sean Miller, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennesse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, William & Mary, Wisconsin | Comments (2)

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Bracket Junkie: UND’s big week gives the Big East nine

Bracket Junkie: Big Ten injuries likely to affect seeds

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of posturing, no changes in at-large field

Bracket Junkie: Plenty of bubble movement

Bracket Junkie: Big 12 is back to Big Eight

Bracket Junkie: WVU, Nova to play for top seed

Bracket Junkie: An unholy mess

Bracket Junkie: Loving the Lobos

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