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Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.
Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.
I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.
As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!
Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island
Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton
Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)
Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field. Read More »
Posted in Bracket Junkie, National Perspective
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Tagged ACC, Arizona State, Atlantic-10, Austin Freeman, Baylor, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Brigham Young, California, Clemson, Connecticut, Dayton, Duke, Evan Turner, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Jon Leuer, Kalin Lucas, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan State, Mid-Majors, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Mountain West, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Pac-10, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, SEC, Seton Hall, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, UAB, UNLV, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Xavier
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