BaselineStats.com 8th of 49 among projectors for last two years

March 15, 2010 – by Brendon

Things didn’t work out quite like we would have liked on Selection Sunday, but we finished in the top half again. More notably, based on the Bracket Matrix, BaselineStats.com has been the eighth most accurate bracket projection of the 49 that have been published brackets each of the last two years. Congratulations to Bracketville (BV), who had the best score this year and by far the highest aggregate over the last two years. We’ll try to close the gap on Bracketville next year.

 

Rank Bracket 2010 2009 Agg
1 BV 322 316 638
2 Palm 312 315 627
TBB 312 315 627
4 MMAS 313 312 625
5 Beer 319 305 624
F&B 315 309 624
7 CHN 321 302 623
8 Base 305 317 622
Lobo 315 307 622
Rivals 304 318 622
11 OSF-H 307 314 621
12 B101 305 315 620
13 BP 307 311 618
14 FPO 310 307 617
Rain 310 307 617
16 PH 311 305 616
17 B65 305 310 615
CtD 309 306 615
VTS 306 309 615
20 MM10 305 309 614
21 WN 303 307 610
22 Graph 284 325 609
TE 306 303 609
24 BB 303 305 608
Jabe 303 305 608
26 CD 303 304 607
ESPN 300 307 607
OSF-E 296 311 607
Rush 303 304 607
30 BW 303 303 606
31 BtB 296 307 603
32 BaP 306 296 602
33 Rock 301 300 601
S64 291 310 601
SN 303 298 601
Yahoo 308 293 601
37 SI 302 298 600
WAG 290 310 600
39 BrP 301 298 599
NB 302 297 599
41 MAG 305 293 598
42 THR 307 290 597
43 BR-JS 309 284 593
Bryce 297 296 593
BuB 298 295 593
46 CB 297 295 592
47 BT 298 287 585
48 BtE 289 295 584
49 VCR 299 281 580
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Bracket Junkie: Last chance for a thousand years

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes: Just a few changes from the last projection. Pittsburgh moves down to a No. 4 and Temple moved up to a No. 3. Louisville moved down to a No. 10 and San Diego State up to a No. 9 to balance the Big East teams. Also, we decided to give Missouri the nod as a No. 10 and drop Wake Forest to a No. 11.

 

Also, it was painful to watch Minnesota get smoked in the second half by Ohio State, but we stuck to our guns and put the Gophers in as a No. 12. Mississippi State is the team we worry about most.

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Bracket Junkie: Provisional final bracket breakdown

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Breakdown: As many of you have already seen here, our provisional final bracket is up. After working the Big East Tournament this week and getting literally no sleep to do this projection overnight, my brain is fried. I just spent the last hour checking every single four-team pod to make sure there are no rematches. At last, there are not — I think. Due to fatigue, I am going to keep this short. You can find the last 10 in, last 10 our and conference breakdown at the link above.

 

Moving In as At-large: Minnesota (UTEP and Utah State ate up two at-large bids)

 

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island

 

On the Bubble: As with most people, our breakdown came down primarily to five teams — Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Florida, Illinois and Mississippi State — for two spots. We also tried to give fair consideration to Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi, William & Mary and UAB, among others. At the end, though, in came down to those five. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Final-ish projection

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Note: This projection was last updated at 12:18 p.m. EDT to address any issues with first-round rematches of regular-season matchups, conference balancing and hosting restrictions. The only seed changes were Virginia Tech and Utah State being placed back on their natural seed lines.

 

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes

 

1. The most important thing to note is that this is our final bracket if the four remaining games go to the favorites. We’re projecting Duke, Kentucky, Temple and Ohio State as winners, and we will update this bracket around 3:30 p.m. EDT if one of those first three don’t happen — not sure there will be a need if Ohio State loses but perhaps. The most obvious update will be Mississippi State grabbing a bid with a win over UK.

 

2. I will have a brief breakdown in a few hours after I pour water on my eyes and have a chance to breathe — it’s been a long week at MSG and working on this bracket.

 

3. What a crazy last two days it’s been for the bubble, huh?

 

4. The “OSU” that was moved down one seed line was Oklahoma State not Ohio State.

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Saturday bubble update on eve of announcement

March 13, 2010 – by Brendon

New Locks: California, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, UNLV

 

Last 10 In:

 

1. Rhode Island (last in)
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Virginia Tech
6. San Diego State
7. Missouri
8. Wake Forest
9. Louisville
10. Georgia Tech

 

Last 10 Out:

 

1. Seton Hall (last out)
2. Mississippi
3. Mississippi State
4. Wichita State
5. Memphis
6. Minnesota
7. UAB
8. William & Mary
9. Cincinnati
10. South Florida

 

Breakdown: A few bubble teams finally took their destiny into their own hands on Friday. Georgia Tech, UNLV and San Diego State almost certainly nailed down bids with wins over ranked opponents, and Illinois is now likely to make the field as well. Those three Tech, UNLV, SDSU and California have been added as locks after Friday victories.

 

That leaves five at-large spots still up for grabs. Florida, Washington, Illinois and Virginia Tech are favorites to get four of those five spots, but any of those teams could be spilled if bubble teams still alive win today or if an at-large bid is swallowed up by a conference upset.

 

As far as bubble teams still with a shot to play their way in, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Mississippi State are the three to watch on Saturday. I have the Rams as the last team in right now, and they play Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals at 1 p.m ET; Minnesota takes on Purdue at 4 p.m. in the Big Ten semis; and Mississippi State gets Vanderbilt at 3:15 p.m. in the SEC semis. Wins by those teams would make them hard to keep out.

 

There are also a few conference tournaments where bids could be swallowed up. The Conference USA final is just underway with Houston taking on UTEP. A win by the Cougars over regular-season champ UTEP would surely eat up an at-large bid, as the Miners are almost certainly in. In the WAC, New Mexico State will try to upset Utah State at 10 p.m. The good news for bubble teams is that the host Nevada Wolfpack lost to NMSU, so Utah State won’t have to battle against an adversarial crowd.

 

In the ACC, two teams — Miami and North Carolina State — are still alive, and either would steal an at-large bid with two more wins. Duke and Georgia Tech will be heavy favorites in the ACC semifinals at 1:30 and 3:30 p.m., but the Canes and Wolfpack are dangerous enough to make it interesting.

 

I figure that out of Mississippi State, Minnesota and Rhode Island winning and one of the bids getting swallowed up by a spoiler, at least one of those will happen to secure that last open at large spot. If none of those happen, it would bring a Seton Hall, Mississippi, Wichita State or Memphis back into play. If more than one happens, Florida and Virginia Tech beware; and Illinois and Washington better win today to make it certain.

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Bracket Junkie: Will any teams play their way in?

March 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold below. Three new teams earned their bold tags this week — Notre Dame and perhaps a couple of controversial teams, UTEP and Utah State. Even though Florida, Virginia Tech and California are ahead of locks like Wake Forest and Missouri in my S-curve, they could all still lose. I don’t yet trust the committee to definitely put all three in if any were to lose today, though I’d bet they will all make it regardless. That leaves eight bids up for grabs, a number that could still shrink with conference-tournament upsets. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Welcoming four new teams to the field

March 8, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold. Three new at-large teams earned their bold tags over the weekend — Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest. Notre Dame and Virginia Tech just missed.

 

Moving In as At-large: Arizona State, Mississippi, San Diego State, Washington

 

Moving Out as At-large: Georgia Tech, Illinois, Rhode Island, UAB

 

Moving In as Automatic: Vermont (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)

 

Moving Out as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

 

On the Bubble: There was a lot of shuffling around the bubble this weekend with several teams suffering near-devastating losses. Georgia Tech and Illinois both had blowout losses at home. The loss for the Yellow Jackets is their third in five and fifth in seven, and more importantly, it puts them at 7-9 in conference. To me, Illinois only looked like an NCAA Tournament team for about a week all season — when it beat Wisconsin and Michigan State. We’ll see if that 10-8 conference record is enough to override losing five of six and dropping games to Georgia, Bradley and Utah out of conference. Rhode Island lost its fifth of seven against 18-loss UMass in Amherst on Saturday. That will be hard to overcome. Finally, UAB needed to win one of its two tough games this week, but the Blazers lost both by a total of seven points, including a 52-50 win at C-USA champ UTEP on Saturday. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Bubble squalor nine days out

March 5, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

 

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

 

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

 

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

 

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

 

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

 

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

 

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

 

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field. Read More »

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