Do road L’s, defensive meltdowns mean no Final Four for Duke?

After a very public humiliation in front of millions of viewers, thousands of fans at the Verizon Center and the President of the United States against Georgetown on Saturday, Duke will be back in action in Durham on Thursday, hosting Georgia Tech. Though some of the Blue Devils’ recent performances may make it absurd to ask, I wonder whether Duke’s play means it’s fighting against trends to make its first Final Four since 2004. The Blue Devils still rank second in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, and the team that’s finished second in the rankings has made the Final Four four times in the last six years and won the title twice — Florida in 2007 and Connecticut in 2004 — but a couple of trends are evident.

 

I’m approaching this from two directions — bad defensive games and road play. I want to see whether the last 24 Final Four teams have had defensive games or road records to match Duke’s this season. The Blue Devils have twice — against North Carolina State and Georgetown most recently — allowed opponents to score at least 1.2 points per possession. The Blue Devils are also 1-4 on the road this season. Let’s look at these two issues separately and in the light of how past Final Four participants have fared. Read More »


Deacons size helps pull out another overtime win

Wake Forest 85, Maryland 83 (OT): The good news for Maryland is that the Terps hung with a good Wake Forest team on the road for 45 minutes. The bad news is that Maryland is probably headed right toward the bubble, and a road win against the Deacons would have been the kind of result that may have put Gary Williams’ team over the top in March. As it is, the Terrapins lost, and they’re still in search of the nine conference wins that would put them in good shape for an NCAA bid. Al-Farouq Aminu scored 24 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and blocked three shots to lead Wake Forest.

 

Poss PPP eFG Turn Off Reb FTR
Maryland 78 1.07 0.457 0.193 0.455 0.271
Wake Forest 78 1.09 0.493 0.206 0.425 0.229

 

In a two-point game decided in overtime, there really wasn’t a decisive factor, as the bounce of a ball separated winner from loser. The one statistical disparity is in 2-point percentage, and this is where Maryland’s lack of size can hurt it. The Terrapins are 11th in the ACC in effective height, while Wake Forest is first. As a result, it’s little surprise that the Terps hit just 38.5 percent (20-of-52) of their 2-pointers on Tuesday. For a team that doesn’t like to shoot many threes — even though it shoots them well — shooting so poorly on 2-pointers can really hurt the offense. Landon Milbourne (4-for-14) and Greivis Vasquez (5-for-15) had a particularly difficult time inside. Read More »


Big Ten is even money to take first Challenge

The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.

 

The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.

 

The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64. Read More »


ACC portal offers hoops fans terrific data

As someone who grew up in Big East country, I’ve long reveled in the Big East’s successes and the ACC’s failures (and shuddered at the reverse). These two leagues are the only major ones in which basketball is king, and they are located in the same third of the country, so it’s not surprising that they’ve developed a mostly respectful rivalry.

 

I’ve recently come across a home for folks looking for ACC basketball knowledge and plenty of it. SCACCHoops.com offers fantasy ACC basketball, live stats, box scores, shot data and analysis for the ACC fan, or even for the hater who wants to keep tabs on the perennial basketball power.


ACC Week in Review: Wake Forest starts strong behind Aminu

In sum: There wasn’t much in the way of drama in the first week of play for ACC teams. The league, as a whole, went 14-0, and only four of those victories were by a margin of fewer than 20 points. Perhaps it’s a surprise that two of those four such wins were by North Carolina. On Sunday, 12 3-pointers helped keep Valparaiso close against the Tar Heels, but UNC’s 62 percent shooting from inside was too much for the Crusaders to overcome.

 

Team of the week: Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons had a pair of impressive wins this weekend, starting Friday night with a 76-56 victory over Oral Roberts, a traditional power in the Summit League, and the coaches’ pick to finish second this year. On Sunday, Wake throttled East Carolina on the road, 89-58. Al-Farouq Aminu has emerged with the departures of James Johnson and Jeff Teague. After scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 boards against ORU, he had 23 points and nine boards against ECU. Read More »


Friars host dangerous Mercer; RPI-induced scheduling changes

Let’s face it — Sunday’s slate isn’t very interesting, but there is an upset watch in Providence as well as an intriguing scheduling trend for teams looking for an RPI boost.

 

Mercer at Providence (2:30 p.m. ET): The World Vision Invitational may not compete with the Maui Invitational or the NIT Season Tip-Off in terms of attracting marquee programs, but it does offer us one of Sunday’s intriguing matchups. This three-day “tournament,” which has four teams play a round-robin format, features Providence as the host. Mercer, Bryant and Bucknell fill out the field.

 

(Brief digression: World Vision is a terrific Christian charity that is often among the first responders with support after a natural disaster — like the recent floods in the Philippines. World Vision is also on the vanguard of preventing cases of malaria in the third world. I encourage you to check it out.)

 

Bryant has just recently become a Division I team, and, while Bucknell is a solid opponent capable of pulling off the upset, Mercer’s reputation as a giant-killer continues to grow. The Bears famously knocked off O.J. Mayo and Southern Cal in the teams’ opener two seasons ago. Last year, the Atlantic Sun program defeated Alabama and Auburn in a four-day span. With six of his top eight players back, head coach Bob Hoffman will hope to add a Big East scalp to his collection. Read More »


ACC has depth, but will anyone help out UNC come March?

2008-09 in review: A conference that once dominated March has, of late, become a league with one team that dominates March while 11 other teams sit in their dorm rooms and watch. For the third straight season, North Carolina was the only ACC team to reach a regional final. Duke became the only team not named “North Carolina” to make the Sweet 16 since 2006, but the Blue Devils were brusquely dismissed by Final Four-bound Villanova. ACC teams not from Chapel Hill have just a 9-16 NCAA Tournament record in the last three tournaments.

 

Before continuing with the ACC negativity, I must first pay homage to the team of last season, the Tar Heels. UNC perhaps didn’t sail through the ACC season as smoothly as many assumed — in fact, Roy Williams’ team started ACC play 0-2 — but, by the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, there was nothing stopping the Tar Heels. UNC’s offense was one of the best in recent memory, and only Oklahoma came close to slowing it down in the NCAA Tournament. Behind the inside-outside combination of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, and with Wayne Ellington hitting his stride — not to mention about six or seven other players who would start on any team in the country — North Carolina was hardly challenged in winning each NCAA Tournament game by at least 12.

 

At one point or another, three ACC teams besides UNC had the look of a top team last season, but each had their flaws revealed and saw their seasons end in embarrassing March departures. After a 16-0 start to the season, Clemson lost nine of its final 16, including a three-point loss to No. 10 seed Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Wake Forest also started 16-0, but the young Demon Deacons then lost five of nine, briefly righted the ship in early March, but fell in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments, including a 15-point loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State. Duke didn’t fall nearly as hard after its 18-1 start, though the Devils did lose four-of-six at one point. Duke was terrific in the ACC Tournament, winning the final over Florida State, and the Devils knocked off a tough Texas team to reach the Sweet 16 but fell by 23 in a wretched display of shooting in Boston.

 

Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the league has gone from the best conference in the NCAA Tournament to fifth, ahead of only the SEC among major conferences. This is how the conferences have improved or gotten worse in March since 2006, according to average NCAA Tournament Conference Score.

 

Conference 2000-05 2006-09 Diff
Pac-10 1.08 1.35 0.27
Big East 1.00 1.17 0.17
SEC 1.03 1.02 -0.01
Big 12 1.24 1.11 -0.14
Big Ten 1.33 1.11 -0.22
ACC 1.55 1.04 -0.51

 

It’s not as simple as saying that Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College have killed the ACC, but it’s part of it. While the Big East added top-20 programs in Louisville, Marquette and — they hope soon — Cincinnati, the ACC added something less valuable. Of course, Herb Sendek’s departure from Raleigh, which turned the Wolfpack program into a nightmare (15-33 in conference over the last three seasons) hasn’t helped. Four years is not a sample that will impress any scientist, but the basketball folks in the ACC have to at least worry if the league hasn’t lost its preeminence in exchange for not much gain at all on the football side. (The Pac-10’s improvement is due almost solely to Ben Howland’s turnaround in Westwood.) Read More »


Matchup Meter: Free throws will come at great cost to UNC, Nova

The last time North Carolina won the national championship, the Tar Heels defeated two teams from the same conference at the Final Four in St. Louis in 2005. Starting Saturday in Detroit, UNC may have the chance to it again. Villanova is the first opponent for Roy Williams team in the national semifinal with another Big East team, Connecticut, favored to win the first semifinal. Just like with the Michigan State-Connecticut semifinal, I’m going to analyze Villanova-UNC based on team matchups.

 

No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 1 North Carolina (8:47 p.m. ET)

 

Where Villanova can hurt North Carolina: On the offensive glass. Villanova is a balanced team, one that doesn’t excel at any one thing — except perhaps free-throw shooting — and isn’t awful at anything, though the Cats do send their opponents to the line a bit too much. Therefore, pinpointing a distinct Nova stylistic edge isn’t simple, but it may surprise you that it’s on the offensive glass where the Cats should be able to do some damage to North Carolina. Read More »