March 26, 2009 –
by Lukas
This year, the Big East received the largest number of high seeds in tournament history, along with accompanying expected win totals and pressure. As Brendon pointed out in his recent column, the Big East could send two teams to the Final Four and three others to the Sweet 16 and still fall more than two shy of its 16.38 expected win total. As the only remaining region with two Big East teams still alive, the East regional will go a long way in deciding whether or not the Big East is able to meet or even exceed these expectations.
How the conferences stack up so far
| Conference |
Wins |
Exp Wins |
Seeds Left |
| ACC |
5 |
10.88 |
1, 2 |
| Big East |
11 |
16.38 |
1, 1, 1, 3, 3 |
| Big Ten |
6 |
7.18 |
2, 5 |
| Big 12 |
9 |
8.18 |
2, 3, 3 |
| Pac-10 |
6 |
5.99 |
12 |
| SEC |
1 |
1.5 |
None |
Read More »
March 25, 2009 –
by Lukas
A glance at your March Madness bracket pool will give you a quick verdict on the character of those involved – the higher you are, the more conservative and chalktastic your picks were. As Brendon previously wrote, the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was filled with ‘almost’, but not quite. On towards the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 we go though, and despite the absence of any true Cinderellas, there is still much to talk about and compelling games to watch.
The Big Engine That Could
Arizona is the only team left with a seed higher than five, sitting all by their lonesome as a No. 12. Arizona was also the only truly controversial inclusion into the field of 65. While I highly doubt there was a massive conspiracy to by the Seeding Committee to help their least defensible decision put on a good showing, the end product was indeed that. While only one of the three of the most dangerous matchups pitting low seeded mid-majors with high ranking BCS schools that I identified ended in an upset, the one that did was the one I was most confident in – Cleveland State over Wake Forest. Had they even advanced, there was still no telling which Wake team we would be seeing – The one that beat Duke and UNC, or the one that lost to Georgia Tech and NC State.
Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Arizona, Cleveland State, Kansas, March Madness, NCAA Tournament, North Dakota State, Portland State, Syracuse, Utah, Wake Forest, Xavier
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March 19, 2009 –
by Lukas
In my East and South regional previews, I noted that I considered Wisconsin the bracket-buster in that section of the bracket. I did this a bit tongue-in-cheek as bracket-busters tend to be teams from small conferences and combine very low national exposure with double-digit seeds. I went back and researched all the non-power-conference teams seeded No. 12 or worse that won in the last five years to see if I could glean any insight into what characteristics, if any, these bracket-busters or the teams they defeeated had in common.
The nine major upsets were as follows:
2008 – No. 13 Siena over No. 4 Vanderbilt
2008 – No. 13 San Diego over No. 4 UConn
2006 – No. 14 Northwestern State over No. 3 Iowa (not the Northwestern Wildcats as was the call)
2006 – No. 13 Bradley over No. 4 Kansas
2005 – No. 14 Bucknell over No. 3 Kansas
2005 – No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Syracuse
2005 – No. 12 UW Milwaukee over No. 5 Alabama
2004 – No. 12 Manhattan over No. 5 Florida
2004 – No. 12 Pacific over No. 5 Providence Read More »
Posted in Mid-Majors, Pac-10, Reviews/Previews, SEC
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Tagged Alabama, Bracket Buster, Bradley, Bucknell, Cleveland State, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Manhattan, March, Michigan State, Morgan State, NCAA Tournament, North Dakota State, Northwestern State, Oklahoma, Pacific, Portland State, Providence, Robert Morris, San Diego, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, UW Milwaukee, Vanderbilt, Vermont, Wake Forest, Xavier
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March 18, 2009 –
by Lukas
While the East bracket does not quite have the offensive firepower and sharp contrasts that the South bracket that I also previewed does, there are still plenty of compelling talking points.
The burden of expectations: Pittsburgh has accumulated a lot of success in the last seven years under first Ben Howland and now Jamie Dixon, who have combined to make the NCAA tournament each of the last eight years. Most of the seeds the Panthers have been given have been high (2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 9) and they’ve managed to go 10-7 over this time period. Their expected win total given those seeds is 10.77, so they haven’t underperformed too badly, it’s just that they haven’t had the big breakthrough into the Elite Eight and beyond that everyone in the Steel City has been hoping for.
With their highest seed yet, though, the expectation and pressure to make the jump to the next level will be enormous. No longer will a nice little run suffice. This Panthers team starts three seniors and a likely underclassmen declaring for the NBA draft, so the time is now. As a No. 1 seed, Pitt was given a pretty good draw in its half of the region. Xavier and Florida State aren’t the toughest No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the Tournament, and, while both Oklahoma State and Tennessee are a bit more dangerous than their No. 8 and No. 9 seeds would project, Pitt shouldn’t have a major problem advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. It’s what happens that second weekend that will define whether this Panthers’ season is considered a breakthrough or a bittersweet memory. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged American, Binghamton, Duke, East Tennessee State, Florida State, March Madness, Minnesota, NCAA Tournament, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Portland State, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Virginia Commonwealth, Wisconsin, Xavier
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March 18, 2009 –
by Lukas
Welcome to your 2009 March Madness region of contrasting styles. Get ready for some fireworks and several battles for which team can control the tempo. Six of the top seven seeds have elite offenses. In fact they comprise half of the top-12 most efficient offenses in the country. Just for good measure, you’ve also got the two teams in the tournament that have the largest discrepancy between their horrific offense and lock down defense.
How fast should we go? Consider these Second Round matchups that all have a good chance of occurring with their national rank in possessions-per-game in parenthesis:
North Carolina (7) vs. Butler (286)
Gonzaga (88) vs. Illinois (283)
Syracuse (32) vs. Arizona State (333)
Oklahoma (94) vs. Michigan (267)
Tempo-free statistics help us understand these teams on a comparable level, but with such large gaps between the fast and the slow it will be interesting to see if any teams get thrown off its game. UNC’s secondary break tends to move at express speed no matter who the opponent is, so it’s safe to say that the other team is going to have to make an adjustment if they aren’t used to the pace. The looming Syracuse vs. Arizona State matchup is the most interesting out of these, and pits the two teams most equal in talent and ability to win. Read More »
Posted in National Perspective, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Akron, Arizona State, Butler, Clemson, Gonzaga, Illinois, James Harden, LSU, March, Michigan, Morgan State, NCAA Tournament, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Radford, South Regional, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, Temple, Western Kentucky
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March 16, 2009 –
by Lukas
Well, the big day has finally come and passed. Like every Selection Sunday, the selection committee had it’s share of hits and misses. On the whole though, I’d say they generally got things right and I had less major gripes than in years like 2007.
But of course, on to more important things such as how the final Bracket Junkie performed compared to the rest of the competition. Brendon and I were hard at work into the wee hours of the night/morning of Selection Sunday, and the best news of all is that our effort wasn’t in vain.
First off, the largest and probably best comparison of bracketologists is the Bracket Project Matrix. There we are, listed in third place with a score of 317 under the heading ‘Base’. For our first projection ever together, finishing 3rd out of 61 total brackets surpassed our lofty initial goals. Next year, top 2 or bust!
Here is the exact breakdown and a comparison with some of the other media luminaries:
Bracket Junkie, Baselinestats.com
Teams Selected: 64/65 (98.5%)
Teams within One Seed Line: 57/65 (87.7%)
Teams with Exact Seed: 34/65 (52.3%)
Paymon Score: 317
Gary Parrish, CBS
Teams Selected: 64/65 (98.5%)
Teams within One Seed Line: 57/65 (87.7%)
Teams with Exact Seed: 31/65 (47.7%)
Paymon Score: 311
Joe Lunardi, ESPN
Teams Selected: 64/65 (98.5%)
Teams within One Seed Line: 55/65 (84.6%)
Teams with Exact Seed: 30/65 (46.2%)
Paymon Score: 307 Read More »
March 11, 2009 –
by Lukas
The Big 12 has flown somewhat under the radar compared to fellow BCS conferences this year. The conference featured neither multiple high-soaring teams at the top of the league a la the Big East and ACC nor the down-to-the-wire bubble mayhem of the Pac-10 and Big Ten, nor even the generally uninspiring and sloppy play of the SEC. Once Blake Griffin went down and with it Oklahoma’s likely No. 1 seed, the focus switched to the bubble race. Fortunately for fans of Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas, their teams are looking pretty solid in terms of an at-large bid for the NCAAs, but unfortunately for the conference officials, there is a good chance that Selection Sunday will not spring any major surprises. Read More »
Posted in Big 12, Reviews/Previews
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Tagged Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
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January 22, 2009 –
by Lukas
Our first version of the 2008-2009 College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is now up and ready for action. You can view the page here. Included in the RPI ratings are these fun facts:
Division 1 Record – Record against only D1 opponents.
Strength of Schedule (SoS) – The SoS number is taken from the actual RPI formula, and is 2/3 * Opponents’ Winning Percentage + 1/3 Opponents’ Opponents’ Winnings Percentage.
Road W-L – Record in road games
Neut W-L – Record in games held at neutral locations, including semi-home/away games.
1-50 W-L – Record against RPI Top 50 teams.
51-100 W-L – Record against teams ranking between 51 and 100 in the RPI.
100+ W-L – Record against all teams with an RPI greater than 100.
Stay tuned, we’ll be constantly adding in content including conference rankings and standings, team schedules and results, scoring margins and much more, so keep checking back!
