BaselineStats.com 8th of 49 among projectors for last two years

March 15, 2010 – by Brendon

Things didn’t work out quite like we would have liked on Selection Sunday, but we finished in the top half again. More notably, based on the Bracket Matrix, BaselineStats.com has been the eighth most accurate bracket projection of the 49 that have been published brackets each of the last two years. Congratulations to Bracketville (BV), who had the best score this year and by far the highest aggregate over the last two years. We’ll try to close the gap on Bracketville next year.

 

Rank Bracket 2010 2009 Agg
1 BV 322 316 638
2 Palm 312 315 627
TBB 312 315 627
4 MMAS 313 312 625
5 Beer 319 305 624
F&B 315 309 624
7 CHN 321 302 623
8 Base 305 317 622
Lobo 315 307 622
Rivals 304 318 622
11 OSF-H 307 314 621
12 B101 305 315 620
13 BP 307 311 618
14 FPO 310 307 617
Rain 310 307 617
16 PH 311 305 616
17 B65 305 310 615
CtD 309 306 615
VTS 306 309 615
20 MM10 305 309 614
21 WN 303 307 610
22 Graph 284 325 609
TE 306 303 609
24 BB 303 305 608
Jabe 303 305 608
26 CD 303 304 607
ESPN 300 307 607
OSF-E 296 311 607
Rush 303 304 607
30 BW 303 303 606
31 BtB 296 307 603
32 BaP 306 296 602
33 Rock 301 300 601
S64 291 310 601
SN 303 298 601
Yahoo 308 293 601
37 SI 302 298 600
WAG 290 310 600
39 BrP 301 298 599
NB 302 297 599
41 MAG 305 293 598
42 THR 307 290 597
43 BR-JS 309 284 593
Bryce 297 296 593
BuB 298 295 593
46 CB 297 295 592
47 BT 298 287 585
48 BtE 289 295 584
49 VCR 299 281 580
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Bracket Junkie: Last chance for a thousand years

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes: Just a few changes from the last projection. Pittsburgh moves down to a No. 4 and Temple moved up to a No. 3. Louisville moved down to a No. 10 and San Diego State up to a No. 9 to balance the Big East teams. Also, we decided to give Missouri the nod as a No. 10 and drop Wake Forest to a No. 11.

 

Also, it was painful to watch Minnesota get smoked in the second half by Ohio State, but we stuck to our guns and put the Gophers in as a No. 12. Mississippi State is the team we worry about most.

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Bracket Junkie: Provisional final bracket breakdown

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Breakdown: As many of you have already seen here, our provisional final bracket is up. After working the Big East Tournament this week and getting literally no sleep to do this projection overnight, my brain is fried. I just spent the last hour checking every single four-team pod to make sure there are no rematches. At last, there are not — I think. Due to fatigue, I am going to keep this short. You can find the last 10 in, last 10 our and conference breakdown at the link above.

 

Moving In as At-large: Minnesota (UTEP and Utah State ate up two at-large bids)

 

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Illinois, Rhode Island

 

On the Bubble: As with most people, our breakdown came down primarily to five teams — Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Florida, Illinois and Mississippi State — for two spots. We also tried to give fair consideration to Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State, Memphis, Mississippi, William & Mary and UAB, among others. At the end, though, in came down to those five. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Final-ish projection

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

Note: This projection was last updated at 12:18 p.m. EDT to address any issues with first-round rematches of regular-season matchups, conference balancing and hosting restrictions. The only seed changes were Virginia Tech and Utah State being placed back on their natural seed lines.

 

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Notes

 

1. The most important thing to note is that this is our final bracket if the four remaining games go to the favorites. We’re projecting Duke, Kentucky, Temple and Ohio State as winners, and we will update this bracket around 3:30 p.m. EDT if one of those first three don’t happen — not sure there will be a need if Ohio State loses but perhaps. The most obvious update will be Mississippi State grabbing a bid with a win over UK.

 

2. I will have a brief breakdown in a few hours after I pour water on my eyes and have a chance to breathe — it’s been a long week at MSG and working on this bracket.

 

3. What a crazy last two days it’s been for the bubble, huh?

 

4. The “OSU” that was moved down one seed line was Oklahoma State not Ohio State.

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Game of the Night: Rebounding, Butler take down Hoyas

March 14, 2010 – by Brendon

NEW YORK — Great players make great plays, and Da’Sean Butler made the greatest of his career to give West Virginia its first Big East Championship on Saturday night. With nine seconds left and the game tied, Butler had the ball at the top of the key, drove on Georgetown center Greg Monroe and hit a hanging shot over Austin Freeman that hit the backboard and every part of the rim before falling through with 4.2 seconds left to give the Mountaineers a 60-58 win over Georgetown.

 

The shot was Butler’s second last-second make of the tournament, besting — in impact if not improbability — his fallaway, banked 3-pointer to top Cincinnati on Thursday. The senior scored 20 points on the night and was named the tournament’s most outstanding player.

 

The quotable Butler described the final play best. Read More »

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Saturday bubble update on eve of announcement

March 13, 2010 – by Brendon

New Locks: California, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, UNLV

 

Last 10 In:

 

1. Rhode Island (last in)
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Virginia Tech
6. San Diego State
7. Missouri
8. Wake Forest
9. Louisville
10. Georgia Tech

 

Last 10 Out:

 

1. Seton Hall (last out)
2. Mississippi
3. Mississippi State
4. Wichita State
5. Memphis
6. Minnesota
7. UAB
8. William & Mary
9. Cincinnati
10. South Florida

 

Breakdown: A few bubble teams finally took their destiny into their own hands on Friday. Georgia Tech, UNLV and San Diego State almost certainly nailed down bids with wins over ranked opponents, and Illinois is now likely to make the field as well. Those three Tech, UNLV, SDSU and California have been added as locks after Friday victories.

 

That leaves five at-large spots still up for grabs. Florida, Washington, Illinois and Virginia Tech are favorites to get four of those five spots, but any of those teams could be spilled if bubble teams still alive win today or if an at-large bid is swallowed up by a conference upset.

 

As far as bubble teams still with a shot to play their way in, Rhode Island, Minnesota and Mississippi State are the three to watch on Saturday. I have the Rams as the last team in right now, and they play Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals at 1 p.m ET; Minnesota takes on Purdue at 4 p.m. in the Big Ten semis; and Mississippi State gets Vanderbilt at 3:15 p.m. in the SEC semis. Wins by those teams would make them hard to keep out.

 

There are also a few conference tournaments where bids could be swallowed up. The Conference USA final is just underway with Houston taking on UTEP. A win by the Cougars over regular-season champ UTEP would surely eat up an at-large bid, as the Miners are almost certainly in. In the WAC, New Mexico State will try to upset Utah State at 10 p.m. The good news for bubble teams is that the host Nevada Wolfpack lost to NMSU, so Utah State won’t have to battle against an adversarial crowd.

 

In the ACC, two teams — Miami and North Carolina State — are still alive, and either would steal an at-large bid with two more wins. Duke and Georgia Tech will be heavy favorites in the ACC semifinals at 1:30 and 3:30 p.m., but the Canes and Wolfpack are dangerous enough to make it interesting.

 

I figure that out of Mississippi State, Minnesota and Rhode Island winning and one of the bids getting swallowed up by a spoiler, at least one of those will happen to secure that last open at large spot. If none of those happen, it would bring a Seton Hall, Mississippi, Wichita State or Memphis back into play. If more than one happens, Florida and Virginia Tech beware; and Illinois and Washington better win today to make it certain.

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Monroe overwhelms smaller Marquette to get to Big East final

March 12, 2010 – by Brendon

NEW YORK — There have been few blowouts in the Big East Tournament this week. The competition has been taut and the finishes tense, but Greg Monroe lit up Madison Square Garden on Friday night to ensure the Hoyas could breathe easy down the stretch of their 80-57 semifinal win over Marquette.

 

With Marquette playing no one taller than 6-foot-6, the 6-11 sophomore towered over his opposition, making brilliant feeds for scores and looking for his own shot as well. Monroe finished the game with 23 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists and two blocks, and Marquette found itself unable to combat the immense weapon. Read More »

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Bracket Junkie: Will any teams play their way in?

March 12, 2010 – by Brendon

Printable Version of Bracket »

 

Note: Teams deemed at least 98-percent likely to make the NCAA Tournament are in bold below. Three new teams earned their bold tags this week — Notre Dame and perhaps a couple of controversial teams, UTEP and Utah State. Even though Florida, Virginia Tech and California are ahead of locks like Wake Forest and Missouri in my S-curve, they could all still lose. I don’t yet trust the committee to definitely put all three in if any were to lose today, though I’d bet they will all make it regardless. That leaves eight bids up for grabs, a number that could still shrink with conference-tournament upsets. Read More »

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