Printable Version of Bracket »

Notes: Ohio State was moved from Milwaukee to Providence, and Pittsburgh was moved from Providence to Milwaukee so that Brigham Young could be placed in a pod where the Cougars would be able to avoid a Sunday game. This is the first time I’ve had to move pod assignments because of Brigham Young, and I hope it’s the last. Also, in the conference bid breakdowns, I am going to put teams I consider locks for the NCAA Tournament in bold. My definition of a lock is a team that could lose out and would still be at least 98-percent likely to get in. Right now, I have 31 teams as locks plus 22 other bids accounted for by conference champions. That leaves 12 spots still up for grabs, though Oklahoma State and Louisville are just about locked in.

Bracketing Challenges: Kansas slips just past Syracuse and into the top overall seed position after defeating Kansas State on Wednesday. This is very close, however, and the top overall seed will likely come down to who goes further in their conference tournaments. Kentucky could also be in the mix if it wins the SEC Tournament and neither Kansas nor Syracuse wins its conference tournament.

I don’t see how Duke is not still a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils have three top-25 wins, same as Kentucky; and nine top-50 wins, four more than Kentucky. Of course, Duke has three more losses than the Wildcats, but is it possible that the difference in losses can be found in the difference between Kentucky’s 41st-ranked strength of schedule and Duke’s seventh-ranked one? Yet, Duke is on the No. 2 seed line for some people, and Kentucky is firmly ensconced as a No. 1. Interesting. The Blue Devils’ grip on a top seed is not firm, and a slip-up in the conference tournament could combine with a conference tournament championship for any of a half-dozen teams to knock Duke off the line, but right now, I don’t find a compelling argument against Duke.

As a whole, I really feel comfortable with the way I’ve seeded these teams. There are some tricky seedings on lines four through seven, but — with the exception of the teams I moved up or down for conference balancing, most of the seeds “feel” right. Many of you may disagree with that assessment, and feel free to voice your differences in the comments section or via e-mail. Nine days to go until Selection Sunday!

Moving In as At-large: Memphis, Rhode Island

Moving Out as At-large: Connecticut, Dayton

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

On the Bubble: Though I like the seeding for this projection, the bubble is an absolute mess. Any of the last five in could reasonably be left out. The problem is finding the teams to replace them. Illinois has lost four of five and still can’t manage to find its way out of the field. Rhode Island dropped four of five before it vaulted back in with a comfortable home win over Charlotte. Memphis enters the field for the first time after a road win over UAB, but the Blazers maintain their spot thanks to a strong non-conference performance and an 11-4 record in the Conference USA. Saint Mary’s hasn’t played since Saturday, and that was more than good enough to stay in the field.

On the wrong side of the bubble, a couple of Pac-10 teams are inching closer. Arizona State and Washington both have shots at bids if they reach the conference tournament final. Their potential semifinal matchup in the Pac-10 Tournament could prove vital. San Diego State had a routine home win and actually has a profile similar to UAB’s, but the Blazers got the nod thanks to a better overall record and two more wins against top-100 opponents. Then there’s Mississippi with its weak record — 8-7 — in the lesser half of the SEC, but the Rebels do have 20 wins against a pretty solid schedule. Connecticut, Mississippi State and Dayton each suffered damaging losses this week. For UConn and UD, the losses ensure conference records that will be eyesores to the committee. For MSU, the loss to a weak opponent — Auburn — is the Bulldogs’ fifth against teams outside of the RPI top-100. Set that against Rick Stansbury’s team’s one top-50 win. As you can see, determining the most deserving at-large teams was a lot like naming the most reasonable talking head on one of those awful afternoon ESPN shows.

Atlantic 10: Temple had a very fine win at Saint Louis this week. With that victory, the Owls are one step closer to a share of the A-10 title. Fran Dunphy’s club could peak at a No. 4 seed with a good run in Atlantic City for the A-10 Tournament. Xavier defeated Fordham and, like Temple, figures to slot somewhere on the 4-6 range. Richmond had a terrific comeback win over Dayton on Thursday, a victory that may have sealed the Flyers’ fate. The Spiders head to a sputtering Charlotte team to play for seeding.

URI got a win it needed against Charlotte, but it can’t allow itself to fall at UMass. A home loss to the Minutemen in their last regular-season game a year ago doomed the Rams’ at-large hopes. URI’s RPI is in the 20s now but is unlikely to stay there without a run to the A-10 final, though it needn’t get that far to secure a bid. Dayton is the tough-luck team in the nation this year. The Flyers could probably share that honor with Penn State, but the Nittany Lions aren’t in a fight for an NCAA bid. Brian Gregory’s team has lost seven straight games decided by five points or fewer — with a six-point overtime win against Duquesne thrown in. Dayton hosts Saint Louis on Saturday needing a win just to get to 9-7 in conference. That’s not a league record from the A-10 that will impress many committee members, though St. Joseph’s got in with a 9-7 record and a run to the A-10 final in 2008. That’s the task for the Flyers.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Temple (No. 5)
Xavier (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7, moved to No. 8 for conference balancing)
Rhode Island (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for conference balancing; fifth-to-last in)
Dayton (eighth-to-last out)

ACC: Home wins this week for Clemson and Florida State locked in a winning conference record for both teams. The losses for Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have dropped both teams into improbably precarious positions. Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech this weekend, and Wake Forest hosts Clemson. GaTech needs a win just to get to .500 in conference, and the Demon Deacons are desperate to stop a slide that has reached four straight. The good news is that the bubble is so weak that both teams still maintain a margin for error.

Virginia Tech halted a three-game losing streak with a home win over NC State on Wednesday, but the Hokies now travel to Georgia Tech where a loss would drop VT closer to the cutline. Still, a 9-7 record in the ACC — that’s where the Hokies would be with a loss in Atlanta — is probably stronger than what most of the teams near the bubble will be able to show to the committee, despite just two top-50 wins.

Maryland’s seed is starting to fall better in line with its play now that the Terps have defeated Duke. Maryland now has six top-50 wins.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 5)
Clemson (No. 7)
Florida State (No. 8)
Georgia Tech (No. 10)
Wake Forest (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)

Big 12: I nearly bolded Oklahoma State, but a Cowboys loss to Nebraska in Stillwater on Saturday followed by a first-round Big 12 Tournament loss next week could conceivably put OSU in jeopardy. A win over the Cornhuskers will remove all doubt.

I still see Baylor, Texas A&M and Texas as being underseeded in many projections. It doesn’t seem that many people understand just how strong the Big 12 is this year. Do a side-by-side comparison of Vanderbilt and Baylor’s qualifications and tell me how they can be 2-3 seed lines apart. Also, I think Texas is suffering from bad public relations. Because the Longhorns aren’t No. 1-seed good, they’re being dropped down further than they should. This is still a 23-7 team with five wins against top-50 teams and nine against top-100 teams without a single loss to a team outside the top 100.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 4)
Texas A&M (No. 4)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 7)
Oklahoma State (No. 8, moved to No. 7 for conference balancing)

Big East: The winner of Saturday’s West Virginia-Villanova matchup has the inside track at unseating Duke for the last No. 1 seed. A WVU loss would give Villanova a sweep, making it more difficult for the committee to slot the Mountaineers over the Wildcats even if WVU outperforms Villanova at the Big East Tournament. Pittsburgh stays firmly on the No. 3 seed line thanks to Ashton Gibbs’ 30-foot game-winner against Providence. A Pittsburgh win over Rutgers combined with a WVU win at Nova would create a three-way tie for second place in the Big East, and the Panthers would win the tiebreaker. Should that happen, Pitt would be a No. 2 seed in the Big East Tournament for the second straight year, despite all the personnel losses from last season.

Georgetown has now lost two straight as well as one of its top players in Austin Freeman. The assumption is that Freeman will be back for the Big East Tournament, if not sooner, but that’s not a guarantee for the junior recently diagnosed with diabetes. Marquette continues to rise, this time after a dominant victory over Louisville. I’m going to leave the Cardinals off the list of locks. They are just a spot ahead of Wake Forest in my at-large model and have just three top-50 wins.

Notre Dame might clinch a bid with a win at Marquette on Saturday, though the Golden Eagles have lost just once since Jan. 23. Short of a road victory, Notre Dame will need a win and probably two at Madison Square Garden to boost an RPI that currently sits at 63. UConn has to win at USF and then likely add two more at MSG to secure a bid. The best the Huskies can do is 8-10 in conference, and that will be hard for the committee to ignore, regardless of how difficult their schedule has been. USF and Seton Hall continued to stay within reach of the field thanks to road victories over the two worst teams in the Big East. Both teams need to win until Thursday’s Big East quarterfinals, and then we’ll see where each stands if that happens.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 5)
Marquette (No. 8)
Louisville (No. 9)
Notre Dame (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; seventh-to-last in)
Connecticut (fifth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (seventh-to-last out)
South Florida (10th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State appear likely to finish 14-4 in conference with Wisconsin a step behind. All four teams have played portions of the season without their best players. Of course, Purdue is the only team that will continue to play that way. These four teams may look similar, but let’s keep in mind how many top-50 wins each has: Purdue, 6; Ohio State, 5; Wisconsin, 6; Michigan State, 3. Also, MSU lost Kalin Lucas for just one full game. On the other hand, Evan Turner missed six, and Jon Leuer missed nine. Just some things to think about.

At the bubble, Illinois continues to hang around, but I’m not sure the Illini can survive a home loss to Wisconsin. The Illini’s RPI will be in the 70s with a loss, and I doubt their quality wins can overcome an 18-13 record (plus a loss in the Big Ten Tournament) with that RPI. Minnesota, meanwhile, is done. Twenty-eight point losses to teams going nowhere tend to do that to a team. I suppose that the Gophers could be in the mix with a run to the Big Ten final, but let me know when that happens.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 13, last in)

Mountain West: The Lobos continued to do what they do — win by less than one would expect but win nonetheless. This time, it was a seven-point home win against seventh-place TCU, New Mexico’s 14th straight win. Steve Alford’s team may not be that good, but it sure does win a lot, and I figure that will be rewarded. I’m less comfortable with Brigham Young as a No. 6, as I could see the Cougars higher. BYU, though, is just 4-4 vs. the top 50 without a top-25 win.

UNLV is one of the primary beneficiaries of the weak bubble. Last season, the three straight February losses might have doomed the Rebels, but they still look fairly comfortable this season. Lon Kruger’s bunch will close the season with Wyoming at home before hosting the Mountain West Tournament. Two more wins should be enough. San Diego State is basically UNLV with two fewer quality wins, and that makes all the difference. SDSU needs to close out the season with a win at Air Force and probably reach the MWC final to get in. Although, that appeared to be the formula last March as well, and it didn’t work out (unjustly, I’d maintain).

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
San Diego State (second-to-last out)

Pac-10: I won’t put Cal as a lock yet, but I’m definitely more bullish on the Bears than most. Assuming Cal finishes out the regular season with a win at Stanford and avoids an upset in the Pac-10 quarterfinals, I think the Bears will be in. Washington and Arizona State have been helped by the bubble slippage. ASU has now won seven of nine with its only losses being at Washington and at Cal. Washington has won three straight after the disappointing home defeat to USC. The Huskies’ two wins over RPI top-25 teams — Texas A&M and Cal at home — give them the edge over ASU despite the Sun Devils’ superior conference record. The committee has been generous with Pac-10 bubble teams in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it gives the nod to one of these two next Sunday.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (last out)
Arizona State (third-to-last out)

SEC: Vanderbilt just edged out Baylor for the last No. 3 seed primarily due to that strong, 12-3 conference record, though I’m not convinced that Baylor’s 10-5 in the Big 12 South is substantively worse. Tennessee got the nod on the No. 4 line, though I could see any number of teams ahead of the Vols here, particularly Maryland, Temple or Michigan State. Either way, both teams are in and — along with UK — will see to it that the SEC’s stay in the NCAA Tournament is longer this year than last.

Florida, like Wake Forest, has failed to move closer to the bubble despite recent losses. The Gators now head to Kentucky. If they don’t win there, they can ill afford to lose their first-round SEC Tournament game, which will likely come against a tricky Auburn or Alabama club. Mississippi and Mississippi State are hanging around, the latter despite a damaging road loss to Auburn on Wednesday. MSU must beat Tennessee at home this weekend to have a shot. As for the Rebels, they do have that neutral-court win over Kansas State in November, but then there’s the 8-7 conference record and the sweep at the hands of Mississippi State. Andy Kennedy’s team visits Arkansas this weekend. A win there will be the first of several steps toward an at-large.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 3)
Tennessee (No. 4)
Florida (No. 11, ninth-to-last in)
Mississippi (fourth-to-last out)
Mississippi State (sixth-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: With the bubble so weak as it stands, I’m convinced that teams like Northern Iowa, Utah State, UTEP and Old Dominion have terrific shots at at-large bids if they lose in their conference tournaments. There aren’t as many major-conference teams with qualifications to steal bids from teams that dominated mid-major leagues like these teams did all season.

The worrisome thing about the bubble for mid-major teams right now is that so many of them are just barely on the positive side of it. UAB, Memphis, Saint Mary’s and Rhode Island are all among the last five in. We’ve seen in recent seasons, with the omissions of Illinois State, Creighton, San Diego State and Saint Mary’s, among others, that the committee can be unforgiving with the little guy.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 8)
Utah State (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10)
Siena (No. 10)
Memphis (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
UAB (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Wichita State (ninth-to-last out)