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Bracketing Challenges: Ideally, one would like to avoid any recent NCAA Tournament or regular-season rematches in the first two rounds of the Tournament. This is not a hard and fast rule, though, as Gonzaga and Indiana were matched up early in two consecutive tournaments (2006 and 2007). In this bracket, Illinois and Vanderbilt are set up for a potential regular-season rematch in the second round. To change this would require moving teams a seed line up or down, and the NCAA Tournament committee should be more committed to keeping teams on their true seed line rather than avoiding potential second-round rematches. The NCAA doesn’t reveal which teams were moved from their true seed line, so we don’t know for sure how common this practice is.

The two primary seeding challenges were at the ends of the No. 2 and No. 4 seed lines. Villanova got the nod over New Mexico mainly because it’s hard for me to see a Mountain West team gaining a No. 2 seed without a highly impressive non-conference profile and as long as there are other teams with legitimate cases. New Mexico defeated Cal, Texas A&M and Dayton out of conference but is lacking a top win to earn a No. 2 seed. Ohio State may get that last No. 2 in some projections. At the end of the No. 4 seed line, Michigan State edged out Tennessee, with MSU’s play without Kalin Lucas serving as the tiebreaker.

Moving In as At-large: Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

Moving Out as At-large: Rhode Island, San Diego State

Moving In as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Quinnipiac (Northeast), North Texas (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Troy (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: After defeating Pittsburgh and Georgetown in a matter of days, Notre Dame jumps into the field and does so with room to spare. It is arguable whether UND deserves to be ahead of Virginia Tech in the last-10-in pecking order, but the Irish are clearly ahead of Illinois, Saint Mary’s and Dayton. And as for VaTech, Notre Dame has a 3-0 edge in wins over RPI top-25 teams. Connecticut stays in despite blowing the lead at home to Louisville on Sunday. That gives the Big East nine teams, which would be a record. I still think it’s unlikely that the Big East will get nine on the key date — March 14. Mid-major upsets in conference tournaments and teams and Big East teams around the bubble knocking each other off — Notre Dame still has Connecticut and Marquette left to play — figure to cut the total to eight eventually. Right now, though, I’m convinced that all nine would get in.

Atlantic 10: It was always unlikely that the Atlantic 10 would get six teams into the NCAAs but five seemed like a real possibility until recently. That is looking less and less likely after Charlotte lost to George Washington and Rhode Island lost to Saint Bonaventure both on the road on Saturday. The Rams drop out of the projection for the first time this season. Both teams are losers of four of their last five, and they meet in Kingston on Wednesday. Dayton had a dominant home win over UMass and now travels to Richmond on Thursday. A sweep during this final week of the season — at Richmond, vs. Saint Louis — should put the Flyers in pretty good shape.

I want to focus primarily on the bubble teams in this breakdown, but I’ve got to mention Xavier’s two-overtime win against Richmond in Cincinnati on Sunday. Richmond’s two weaknesses — getting to the foul line and offensive rebounding — were lethal on Sunday. The loss all but eliminates the Spiders from the conference race. If Temple can avoid the upset at Saint Louis on Wednesday, it now looks likely that the Owls and Musketeers will tie for the conference title at 14-2. Temple won the head-to-head matchup at home by five on Jan. 20.

Atlantic 10 Bid Breakdown:

Xavier (No. 5)
Temple (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 8)
Dayton (No. 13, last in)
Rhode Island (third-to-last out)
Charlotte (11th-to-last out)

ACC: A double-overtime home loss to Maryland puts Virginia Tech back at risk. Two more wins — including the ACC Tournament — figure to get the Hokies in, and a visit from N.C. State on Wednesday should provide one of them. Two more wins would give VaTech 23 on the season and a winning record in conference, which would seem to be a lock for the NCAAs, but if there ever were an ACC team to be left out in such a situation, it would be this one. Sixteen of VaTech’s 21 wins to date are against teams outside the RPI top 100, and the Hokies have no victories against the RPI top 25.

Wake Forest is the ACC team second most at risk after a nine-point home loss to North Carolina. That gives the Demon Deacons three straight losses with a trip to Florida State and a visit from Clemson to finish the season. As strange as it would have been to say two weeks ago when they were the top five seed, the Deacons need to finish 1-1 to make sure they don’t enter the ACC Tournament with work to do.

ACC Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 1)
Maryland (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 9)
Georgia Tech (No. 9)
Wake Forest (No. 10)
Virginia Tech (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)

Big 12: There’s really nothing left to talk about at the bubble. Oklahoma State hardly looked challenged in defeating the top-ranked Jayhawks in Stillwater. There isn’t a Big 12 team within 15 spots of the bubble on either side. The interesting thing, to me, is seeing where all of these teams get seeded. Texas and Baylor are particularly intriguing, as I still see the Bears consistently under-seeded.

Big 12 Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Baylor (No. 3)
Texas A&M (No. 5)
Texas (No. 5)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 7)

Big East: Louisville’s road win at Connecticut was crucial because neither of the Cards’ final two games is a likely win. Louisville heads to Marquette on Tuesday before hosting Syracuse on Saturday. A split will ensure a fourth straight NCAA Tournament for Rick Pitino’s team. Two losses mean Louisville will have to win at least once in the Big East Tournament. Marquette’s third straight overtime win in three games — all in the road — puts the Golden Eagles at 10-6 in the Big East with two home games left. Two more wins across the end of the regular season and the Big East Tournament will guarantee Marquette a spot, and even just one might be enough.

Notre Dame’s incredible offenses performances last week have put the Irish on the doorstep to the NCAAs, but there is still plenty of work to do. The Irish host Connecticut on Wednesday before finishing the season at Marquette. A sweep and UND will have punched its ticket. A split sends the Irish to the Big East Tournament needing at least one win. UConn hopes that its squandered Sunday lead doesn’t come back to bite it. The Huskies travel to Notre Dame and USF to end the conference season. As with Notre Dame, a sweep will get UConn in, but a split means Jim Calhoun’s club will have to do some winning at MSG.

On the wrong side of the bubble are Cincinnati, Seton Hall and South Florida. The Bearcats tried to do what Notre Dame did on Saturday — beat a quality opponent on the road — but blew a halftime lead at West Virginia. With Villanova at home and Georgetown on the road to end the season, UC has a chance to make some noise and join the party. Win both, and UC enters the Big East Tournament in terrific shape. Get a split, and the Bearcats will need two wins at a minimum in New York. USF and Seton Hall both need sweeps in the final week of the season to get to .500 in conference and position themselves for a run at an at-large in the Big East Tournament.

Big East Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Villanova (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 3)
Georgetown (No. 4)
Louisville (No. 8)
Marquette (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Connecticut (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Notre Dame (No. 12, fifth-to-last in)
Cincinnati (fourth-to-last out)
Seton Hall (11th-to-last out)
South Florida (13th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois’ home loss to Minnesota brings both teams closer to the cut line. The Illini are right on the edge with a trip to Ohio State and a visit from Wisconsin to close out the season. Saturday’s home game against a beatable Minnesota team was the one the Illini needed. The Golden Gophers still have a lot more work to do than some projections would indicate. With an RPI of 69 and mediocre play over the last two months, Minnesota needs to start by winning its last two games — at Michigan, vs. Iowa — and then see where it stands entering the Big Ten Tournament.

Big Ten Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Ohio State (No. 3)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Minnesota (ninth-to-last out)

Mountain West: UNLV and San Diego State are the teams in question here. UNLV defeated a poor Air Force team on the road on Saturday, and SDSU was on a bye. Both dropped a few notches in my model. Neither can afford to lose another game until at least the Mountain West Conference semifinals.

Mountain West Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
San Diego State (last out)

Pac-10: Cal has now put together six dominant performances in seven with that strange loss to Oregon State mixed in. The Bears throttled Arizona State by 16 on Saturday to capture at least a share of the Pac-10 title. I still see Cal as low as a No. 12 seed in some places, but I suspect the Bears will get to dance if they can beat Stanford at Maples Pavilion on Saturday and the win their quarterfinal Pac-10 Tournament game. ASU’s loss — and the margin of it — probably means Herb Sendek’s team will need to win the conference tournament, but it could perhaps sneak in by winning its next four until the Pac-10 title game. Washington did what it needed to do at Washington State, but the Huskies may not have enough chances to impress down the stretch. The Pac-10’s best shot at getting two bids remains Cal losing in the conference tournament final.

Pac-10 Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona State (fifth-to-last out)
Washington (eighth-to-last out)

SEC: Unable to make things easy on themselves, the Gators lost by two at a tough Georgia team on Saturday. With a visit from Vanderbilt followed by a trip to Kentucky to end the regular season, there is suddenly a real chance that Florida could fall out of the field. If the Gators win one of their final two, they should be fine regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi State got the win it needed at South Carolina on Saturday. A win at Auburn followed by a win at home over Tennessee and a quarterfinal victory in the SEC Tournament should get the Bulldogs in. Finally, Mississippi has quietly won two in a row after a three-game losing streak. Much like Minnesota in the Big Ten, the Rebels need to defeat their final two opponents — LSU and Arkansas — to enter the SEC Tournament with a legitimate chance to dance.

SEC Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Florida (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Mississippi State (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (seventh-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: I’m not convinced that Saint Mary’s can get in as an at-large once all results are in. SMC would need everything to break right in the other conference tournaments. The issue is that SMC won’t have the same opportunities to come up with big wins in its conference tournament as other bubble teams will. Right now, though, I give the Gaels the nod.

I am now convinced that Utah State will get in as an at-large if it loses in the WAC Tournament final. Butler, Gonzaga and Northern Iowa are almost certain to get at-large bids if any of them should lose in its conference tournaments. I also think Old Dominion is in a strong position, though not as strong as Utah State’s. The Colonial has enough good teams to knock off ODU, and the Monarchs will likely be right at the bubble on Selection Sunday if they do lose. Then there’s Siena and UTEP. I don’t think Siena gets in without winning the MAAC Tournament, and I don’t see UTEP as looking much stronger right now, but the Conference USA champ definitely has a better shot than the MAAC champ should it fall short in Tulsa.

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown:

Butler (No. 6)
Gonzaga (No. 7)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Utah State (No. 8)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
UTEP (No. 10)
UAB (No. 11, eighth-to-last in)
Siena (No. 11)
Saint Mary’s (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Memphis (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (10th-to-last out)