I happened to catch about 10 seconds too much of some ESPN show this morning and saw that Mississippi State was Joe Lunardi’s last team in the NCAA Tournament field as of today. I try to avoid Lunardi’s thoughts on brackets, because it can be disinformation. Among experienced bracket projectors he is sub-mediocre. But on this I feel the need to comment.

Mississippi State, huh? I know the record is pretty — 20-8 overall and 8-5 in conference — but has anyone bothered to check who Mississippi State has beaten? The Bulldogs’ only win over a top-50 RPI or Pomeroy team this season was a 69-55 victory over Old Dominion in South Padre Island, Texas, on Nov. 28. Their next best wins are two against rival Mississippi. In its three games against top-25 teams, Rick Stansbury’s squad has lost to Richmond on a neutral court, Kentucky at home and Vanderbilt in Nashville. All three games have been close, but all three were losses. Oh, and MSU has also lost four times to teams outside the RPI top 100: Rider, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama.

If you want to go a bit more advanced, check this out. Entering Wednesday’s win over Alabama, MSU had a worse conference efficiency margin than Arkansas. You may be thinking, “Hey, but Mississippi State is not far from Tennessee, and the Vols are in your field.” If you were thinking that, it’s not a bad thought until you consider that Mississippi State plays in the far weaker SEC West, so Tennessee’s efficiency margin has been against better competition.

Here’s a look at the SEC teams ranked by the difficulty of their conference schedules to date (conference RPI SOS):

This shows Mississippi State as having played the second weakest SEC conference schedule to date. This after playing the weakest non-conference schedule according to RPI or second weakest (ahead of just Arkansas again) according to Pomeroy. How can Mississippi State be in the field but Cincinnati, with its four wins against top-50 opponents, Charlotte, with its three, or even Washington and Notre Dame, with two wins each against top-25 teams, be left out? The answer is it wouldn’t happen. I’m not sure which team would get the last bid to the NCAA Tournament right now — there are a handful of options — but I’m certain it wouldn’t be Mississippi State.

MSU does still have a chance to play its way into the field. The Bulldogs travel to Columbia to play South Carolina on Saturday followed by a trip to Auburn on Wednesday. If MSU is going to add to its meager total of quality wins, though, that will have to come on March 6 at home against Tennessee. If the Bulldogs cannot win that game, then they won’t be going to the NCAAs without a deep run — think title-game appearance — in the SEC Tournament.

Finally, be skeptical of any bracket projector — like Joe Lunardi — who is projecting what the bracket would look like today and has Mississippi State in his field.