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Bracketing Challenges: This bracket came together well, but there were still a few challenges. Most notably, any of the last three teams in the field could easily be omitted. South Carolina, Texas Tech and VCU have thin cases, but I found them marginally more compelling than Mississippi, Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and Louisville. If the bracket were announced today, I would not be very confident in those final three teams.

The other challenge continues to be in filling out the top four seedlines. Finding the last two No. 3 seeds was particularly difficult with the poor play of Texas and after Wisconsin’s home defeat to Illinois. Still, the full-season profiles of those two teams remains stronger than Vanderbilt, Gonzaga and the others on the No. 4 seedline.

Moving In as At-large: Illinois, South Carolina, Texas Tech

Moving Out as At-large: Florida, Louisville, Mississippi

Moving In as Automatic: Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)

Moving Out as Automatic: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

On the Bubble: It wasn’t a good week for most teams around the bubble. Notre Dame, Minnesota, Louisville, Northwestern, Florida, Washington, Oklahoma State and Virginia Commonwealth all suffered damaging losses. Only two of those teams are in this projection. The Big 12 has taken yet another bid, this one ostensibly from the Big East, which has just five teams in the latest projection after the Cardinals’ wretched performance at St. John’s on Thursday night. There are now seven Big East teams within 20 spots on the bubble but all are on the wrong side of it. The Big Ten saw two teams suffer nearly crippling losses — Northwestern at Iowa on Wednesday, Minnesota at home to Michigan on Thursday — but Illinois defeated Michigan State and Wisconsin in the span of three days to leap into the field.

ACC: After a second-straight road win, Duke now appears destined for a No. 2 seed and could even pip a No. 1 seed with a dual ACC regular-season and conference championship. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are also comfortably in the field and should view No. 4 seeds as achievable goals should they finish strong. Wake had a big overtime win in Charlottesville on Wednesday. At the same time, Georgia Tech was losing to Miami in Coral Gables.

The bubble picture is an interesting one, as Clemson and Florida State continue to jockey on the positive side of the bubble. The Tigers defeated FSU in Clemson on Wednesday. Maryland was off in the midweek and will travel to Durham on Saturday. The Terrapins remain just barely in the field despite a 6-2 conference record. With just two wins against top-50 teams, Maryland will have to knock off at least one of the four remaining top-50 teams on its schedule or risk omission.

The strangest case of any team fighting for an at-large spot may be Virginia Tech’s. Like the Terrapins, VaTech has a lovely conference mark (6-3) to go with a 19-4 overall record, but the Hokies are still on the outside looking in. If Seth Greenberg’s team does miss the NCAAs, it can blame a non-conference schedule ranked 336th most difficult of 347 teams. VaTech does have seven wins against top-100 teams but just one against the RPI top 50 — last Saturday’s home win over Clemson. With four more games against top-50 teams upcoming, VaTech will have plenty of chances to pad the profile, and the Hokies better take advantage.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 5)
Georgia Tech (No. 7)
Clemson (No. 8)
Florida State (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Maryland (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (fourth-to-last out)

Big 12: I think it’s unlikely that the Big 12 gets eight teams in the NCAA Tournament, but right now it deserves all of them. Texas Tech has surprised most with its play of late — the Red Raiders have now won 4-of-6 after a one-point win at Oklahoma on Tuesday. The meat of the schedule is still to come for Pat Knight’s team, but Tech has four of its last seven at home.

Kansas appears poised to continue its reign atop the Big 12 after a commanding win in Austin on Monday. The Jayhawks have a three-game lead in the loss column and firm grasp on a No. 1 seed. Texas, meanwhile, has hit a crisis point. Rick Barnes has not found a proper mix of his immensely talented roster, and he is now looking up at the top seeds of the tournament. Kansas State is in better shape than Texas, especially with a couple of home games against weaker Big 12 teams — Colorado and Nebraska — coming up. Frank Martin’s team is likely to be favored in its next five games until a March 3 rematch with Kansas in Lawrence.

Texas Tech’s ascension has come as Oklahoma State slips closer to the cutline. The Cowboys have lost three in a row and now face a critical stretch — vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor — where two wins are the minimum requirement. With Baylor and Missouri looking solid, OSU and Tech are the two Big 12 teams currently in the field who are most likely to be sad on Selection Sunday.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 3)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 6)
Texas A&M (No. 7)
Missouri (No. 8)
Oklahoma State (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for conference balancing; sixth-to-last in)
Texas Tech (No. 12, third-to-last in)

Big East: The Big 12’s eight bids in this projection are approximately as astounding as the Big East’s five. These things have a way of working themselves out by mid-March, but the Big East bubble teams need to start winning. Of the seven Big East bubble teams, only one — Seton Hall — won on the midweek, and the Pirates were the bubble team furthest from the field before that victory and remain so.

USF, Cincinnati and Marquette were off in the midweek, and all face important tests this weekend. USF heads to Marquette for perhaps the biggest bubble contest anywhere this weekend. Cincinnati travels to Connecticut before heading to USF on Tuesday. Notre Dame hosts St. John’s, and Louisville travels to Syracuse before those two teams meet in the Bluegrass State on Wednesday. Finally, Seton Hall may be the most unlikely of the Big East’s Bubble Seven to make the NCAAs, but the Pirates host DePaul on Sunday before traveling to St. John’s next Tuesday. A 2-0 mark would bring Seton Hall to 6-7 in conference with plenty of winnable games remaining.

There are teams in the Big East that aren’t on the bubble, and four of them are right near the top of the field. Villanova’s win at West Virginia made the Wildcats’ stay on the No. 2 seedline a decidedly brief one. Syracuse managed to escape at home against Connecticut to stay the No. 2 overall seed. Truthfully, the Orange would probably need to lose twice to fall off the top line. WVU and Georgetown slot in as No. 2 seeds, although West Virginia is the last of that grouping and probably needs to win at Pittsburgh on Friday to stay there.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 2)
Pittsburgh (No. 5)
Cincinnati (last out)
Louisville (fifth-to-last out)
South Florida (seventh-to-last out)
Marquette (eighth-to-last out)
Notre Dame (10th-to-last out)
Connecticut (18th-to-last out)
Seton Hall (19th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Illinois has been undaunted by the increase in competition over the last week. The Illini’s offense — led by Demetri McCamey — has spurred a 2-0 stretch that brought Bruce Weber’s team from more than a dozen spots outside the field a week ago to 10th-to-last in the field in this projection. Fellow bubble brethren Minnesota and Northwestern cannot speak as proudly about their midweek performances, and neither is more than a longshot at this point — though the Gophers are the shorter of the longshots.

Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State could all finish from a No. 2 seed to a No. 5 or 6. The Boilermakers have the most impressive profile so far, the Buckeyes the least. But Evan Turner’s absence should continue to boost OSU’s seeding as long as the Buckeyes continue to play well. The big game of the weekend is on Sunday when Ohio State attempts to cool off the red-hot Illini in Champaign.

Bid Breakdown:

Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 3)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Illinois (No. 9, 10th-to-last in)
Minnesota (20th-to-last out)

Pac-10: While the nation writes off the Pac-10 of unworthy of an at-large bid, California is trying to make sure that it secures one should a Pac-10 Tournament title not come the Bears’ way. Jerome Randle starred in a decisive victory over pretenders to the throne Washington on Thursday in Berkeley. The Huskies now must be nearly perfect to make the field, and the same could be said for both Arizona schools, which had little trouble sweeping the Oregon schools at home on Thursday.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Washington (ninth-to-last out)
Arizona (16th-to-last out)
Arizona State (17th-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are almost certain to make the field, and UK is looking good for a No. 1 seed, provided the Wildcats have at most two slip-ups from here on out. The Volunteers drilled the Vols on Tuesday in Nashville and can claim a top-four seed with continued quality play. Tennessee figures to end up more in the No. 6 or No. 7 seed area.

The SEC bubble is one of the harder to parse. South Carolina, Mississippi and Florida have borderline cases, but it’s the Gamecocks’ quality wins — Richmond, Kentucky, Florida, South Florida — that get them in right now. Mississippi’s 5-5 conference record in the weaker SEC division isn’t helping Andy Kennedy’s team either. Mississippi State got back in the mix with its home win over the Rebels on Thursday. The Bulldogs own two more losses against teams outside the top 100 (two) than wins over the top 25 (zero).

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 6)
South Carolina (No. 13, last in)
Florida (second-to-last out)
Mississippi (13th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors Bid Breakdown: Let’s talk about Cornell. Peer pressure is the biggest reason why I bumped the Big Red from a No. 13 to a No. 12 seed. The Ivy League leaders are ranked in the top 25 and have appeared as high as a No. 7 seed in some projections, and my No. 13 seed was the lowest on the most recent Bracket Matrix. I have no doubt that Cornell is a good team, but I like my teams seeded on the first 10 or so lines to have beaten someone good. Cornell has a total of zero wins against the top 50 and three against the top 100. Cornell’s best three wins are over St. John’s, Alabama and Harvard, none of which is in the mix for an NCAA Tournament berth. In Cornell’s three games against teams with even modestly legitimate chances at making the field, the Big Red lost a close one at Kansas, lost by 15 at Syracuse and lost by 10 at home to Seton Hall. Does that look like a No. 7, 8, 9 or even 10 seed to you?

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Gonzaga (No. 4)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Northern Iowa (No. 5)
Butler (No. 6)
UNLV (No. 6)
Richmond (No. 7)
Temple (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 8)
UAB (No. 8)
Rhode Island (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 9)
Siena (No. 10)
Dayton (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Saint Mary’s (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 11)
UTEP (No. 11)
Charlotte (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Virginia Commonwealth (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Cornell (No. 12)
William & Mary (sixth-to-last out)
San Diego State (11th-to-last out)
Wichita State (12th-to-last out)
Memphis (14th-to-last out)
Tulsa (15th-to-last out)