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Breakdown: Perhaps the most difficult aspect to building this bracket was finding that last No. 3 seed. Out of Purdue, Kansas State, Duke, Texas and West Virginia, it was clear that two of them would be No. 2 seeds and three would be No. 3 seeds, but there was no obvious choice to fill out that third line. Just like in the last projection, I went with New Mexico over Brigham Young and any other team — Wisconsin, Tennessee, Baylor, Temple, Ohio State, Georgia Tech — that might have had a claim.

The good thing is that none of those teams had a very strong claim at that spot. New Mexico was the choice because its five wins against top-50 teams was more than any other team that hadn’t been bracketed, except Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, which also have five. New Mexico’s record (20-3), combined with a head-to-head win over Brigham Young, a six-game winning streak and a 10th ranking in my seeding model put the Lobos over the top. I’m not sure what the Selection Committee would do if presented this scenario, but the only other teams I could see them bracketing here are BYU, who — again — has lost to New Mexico head-to-head, or Ohio State, if the Buckeyes were given a complete pass for losses suffered when Evan Turner was injured.

Moving In as At-large: South Carolina, Old Dominion (from automatic to at-large)

Moving Out as At-large: Minnesota, North Carolina

Moving In as Automatic: Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), George Mason (Colonial), Jackson State (SWAC), Utah State (WAC)

Moving Out as Automatic: Maine (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Old Dominion (Colonial; still an at-large), Texas Southern (SWAC), Louisiana Tech (WAC)

On the Bubble: It’s not hard to make a case against any of those last four in. Connecticut is a popular whipping boy with its poor play in January, save one fine effort, but the Huskies still have seven wins against top-100 teams, albeit just one against a top-50 squad. Maryland and South Carolina have pretty weak cases, but the Terrapins strong conference record in the ACC keeps the Terps in despite losing the ACC automatic bid. For the Gamecocks, with a win over Georgia to get them above .500 in conference combined with the win over Kentucky, they squeak in. Florida’s narrow loss at Tennessee wasn’t enough to knock them down over some of the teams nipping at the Gators’ heels.

Heading in the wrong direction are North Carolina and Minnesota, which each had embarrassing performances on Sunday. North Carolina was never competitive with Virginia in Chapel Hill during the second half before losing by 15. Minnesota’s vaunted defense had no answer for Ohio State in Columbus, losing by 22. The Gophers are looking less and less like the team I called one of the country’s most underrated just more than a month ago.

ACC: Duke’s blowout loss at Georgetown means the ACC will have a difficult time getting a team on the top line come Selection Sunday. The Blue Devils appear to be on their way to a six-loss regular season, and that’s simply too many defeats for a top seed. Up next for Duke is Georgia Tech at Cameron, and the Yellow Jackets may be the ACC team in the best position to join Duke on the top four lines of the field.

The ACC is balanced and, as such, it’s going to be hard for more than a team or two to win more than 10 conference games. That should set up well for the league getting at least half of its members into the NCAAs, but it could suffer in seeding. Clemson’s win over Maryland on Sunday puts the Tigers into a more comfortable position near the middle of the seed chart, while Wake Forest inches down toward Clemson after a 21-point loss at Georgia Tech. It appears likely that Clemson, Wake Forest and maybe four or five other teams will finish in the 8-8 or 9-7 range in conference.

I’ve already discussed Maryland, which needs more conference wins — probably 10 — to feel safe because of its poor play out of conference. Virginia and Virginia Tech are still in play, and both have similarly poor non-conference slates to overcome. VaTech’s loss to Miami on Saturday hurts a lot. UNC still lurks, but the Tar Heels will need to pick up the pace to get the .500 conference record that will put UNC in a good spot.

Bid Breakdown:

Duke (No. 3)
Georgia Tech (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 6)
Wake Forest (No. 8)
Clemson (No. 8)
Maryland (No. 12, second-to-last in)
North Carolina (10th-to-last out)

Big 12: Kansas inches past Syracuse as the overall top seed after the Jayhawks’ stirring overtime win in Manhattan on Saturday night (and the Orange’s earlier performance at DePaul). Meanwhile, I’ve held the Wildcats as a No. 2 seed despite the loss — neither Duke nor West Virginia was very compelling in this spot. Texas drops to a No. 3 seed after losing its third in four games. With two trips to Oklahoma this week, the Longhorns need to put together a string of victories or risk seeing their No. 1 seed slip away for good.

Missouri and Baylor make nice jumps after impressive wins. Missouri took care of Oklahoma State at home, and Baylor, of course, won in overtime at Texas. The Bears have a tentative grasp on a No. 4 seed, and a 10-6 conference record — they’re 3-3 now — should keep them there. OSU drops but is still in solid position as a No. 9 seed, but the Cowboys have a tricky week ahead, hosting Texas Monday night before traveling to Lubbock to play Texas Tech on Saturday. A&M’s big win over Tech moves the Aggies up a notch. Tech really needed that win to stay in the hunt, though that loss wasn’t nearly as devastating as Oklahoma’s defeat to Nebraska.

Bid Breakdown:

Kansas (No. 1)
Kansas State (No. 2)
Texas (No. 3)
Baylor (No. 4)
Missouri (No. 6)
Oklahoma State (No. 9)
Texas A&M (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)

Big East: While Georgetown was solidifying itself on the No. 2 seedline and Syracuse was avoiding a damaging loss, the news was not as positive around much of the rest of the league. Louisville blew a double-digit lead to West Virginia in Morgantown, a win that would have made the Cardinals a very comfortable at-large team. As it stands, they’re among the last five in. Connecticut nearly came back to defeat Marquette but instead saw Jimmy Butler’s game-winning 12-footer put the Huskies on the precipice. In Piscataway, Rutgers likely took care of Notre Dame and Luke Harangody’s hopes of an NCAA appearance as a senior with a 74-73 win. On Sunday, Pittsburgh went down to South Florida and limped away the third straight Bulls’ victim.

One team’s loss is another’s gain, though, as Marquette and USF have now played their ways into a striking distance. The Golden Eagles have bounced back from that awful loss at DePaul and host DePaul this week before traveling to Providence, two games MU should — and needs to — win. The turning of the schedule in the Golden Eagles’ favor could get Marquette back in the field soon. USF, meanwhile, is as close to the bubble (about 12th out) as late in the season as it has been since joining the Big East. The Bulls’ next three games, though, are all on the road: at Georgetown, Notre Dame and Marquette. They’ll need at least one win in three to hang around the discussion.

Bid Breakdown:

Syracuse (No. 1)
Villanova (No. 1)
Georgetown (No. 2)
West Virginia (No. 3)
Pittsburgh (No. 7)
Cincinnati (No. 9)
Connecticut (No. 11, moved to No. 12 for bracket balancing; fourth-to-last in)
Louisville (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Marquette (third-to-last out)
Seton Hall (eighth-to-last out)

Big Ten: Michigan State and Purdue continue to plug along with conference wins. Northwestern hung with MSU for a half but couldn’t keep contact in the second half, and winless Penn State was no match for Purdue in West Lafayette. Ohio State had the impressive win over Minnesota, and Wisconsin was on a bye. There’s a good chance that all four teams end up among the top 16 teams.

After the four definites, though, no one has stepped up. Northwestern couldn’t get a signature, albeit unlikely, win in East Lansing on Saturday. The Wildcats, now 3-6 in conference, face a long stretch of games against teams they will be expected to beat to keep the dream alive, beginning with Michigan and Indiana at home this week. Minnesota, likewise, is below .500 in conference but with its most difficult games in the rearview. The Gophers head to State College on Saturday.

Illinois has an uphill climb despite sitting at 6-3 in conference after Demetri McCamey’s game-winning floater against Indiana on Saturday. With home-and-homes against Wisconsin and Ohio State to come, the schedule is turning against the Illini, and they’ll need at least 11 conference wins to make up for their poor non-conference play. Of these three, Minnesota appears the most likely to make the NCAAs and Illinois the least, though I’d still not put the Gophers at any better than 50 percent.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Purdue (No. 2)
Wisconsin (No. 4)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Minnesota (seventh-to-last out)

Pac-10: Whatever gap California had opened up on the rest of the Pac-10 was brusquely closed by Sean Miller and Arizona on Sunday. The Wildcats’ four-point win created a tie atop the conference halfway through league play. Despite a mediocre 12-9 record, Arizona has enough quality wins to be just outside the field this week. A 6-3 finish to the season will have Arizona knocking on the door once again.

Despite the loss, Cal is in solid shape with a decent finish to conference season, and the Bears are good enough to do that. The only other Pac-10 teams with a sniff at the field are Arizona State and Washington, but both will have to close hard — think 7-2 — to have a legitimate shot at a bid entering the Pac-10 Tournament.

Bid Breakdown:

California (No. 9)
Arizona (second-to-last out)

SEC: Kentucky got its best win of the season on Saturday at home against Vanderbilt, and with the Wildcats’ would-be No. 1-seed successors — Duke, Texas, Kansas State — dropping like flies around them, Kentucky has a more comfortable hold on that last No. 1 seed. Any of the four No. 2 seeds could eventual supplant UK, but Georgetown and Kansas State each have four losses, and Michigan State and Purdue each have three. None will jump that gap as long as UK continues to win.

Tennessee got a crucial one-point home win over Florida on Sunday, one that halts a potential freefall, at least for now. A Gators win in Knoxville would have put them comfortably in the field, but it instead appears that Billy Donovan’s squad will continue its dance with the bubble into March for the third straight season.

Arkansas continued its campaign to derail any SEC West teams’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament by going down to Oxford and defeating the Rebels Sunday in a game postponed a day by bad weather. Mississippi now has a short turnaround before heading to Lexington on Tuesday. Mississippi State got healthy on LSU on Saturday but travels to Vandy and Florida this week. MSU would be about 18th out right now, but a win at Vandy would close that gap considerably.

Bid Breakdown:

Kentucky (No. 1)
Vanderbilt (No. 5)
Tennessee (No. 5)
Mississippi (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; third-to-last in)
South Carolina (last in)

Mid-Majors: Dayton was one of the toughest omissions this week, as was William & Mary. Despite doing well in my at-large model, both teams have poor conference records for squads in second- or third-tier leagues, and I haven’t observed the Committee showing a willingness to give teams like those the benefit of the doubt in recent seasons. Gonzaga’s loss to San Francisco should be damaging to the Bulldogs, though Gonzaga tends to get a one- or two-seed boost every year.

Wichita State continues to win and appears to be the latest second-best Missouri Valley team that will not get into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois State and Creighton each had strong arguments in 2008 and 2009 respectively, but neither was deemed to have a critical mass of quality wins to get the nod. With their strongest non-conference win over Texas Tech, the Shockers have an even less compelling case than their predecessors.

Bid Breakdown:

New Mexico (No. 3)
Brigham Young (No. 4)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Temple (No. 4)
Rhode Island (No. 6)
Northern Iowa (No. 7)
Xavier (No. 7)
Butler (No. 7)
UAB (No. 8)
UNLV (No. 8)
Saint Mary’s (No. 9)
Old Dominion (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Siena (No. 10)
Charlotte (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Richmond (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Utah State (No. 12)
Cornell (No. 12)
Dayton (last out)
San Diego State (fourth-to-last out)
William & Mary (fifth-to-last out)
Virginia Commonwealth (sixth-to-last out)
Wichita State (eighth-to-last out)