Games between evenly matched teams are not very common in November and December, which is why Wednesday’s matchup between Connecticut and Kentucky was so interesting. Close games eliminate some of the static that comes between us and the data in a blowout. How much would he have played if it were close? Would he really have taken that shot in a tight game? Close games get rid of the need for such speculation.
In Kentucky’s 64-61 win over UConn at Madison Square Garden, we learned several things — or had them reinforced, depending on your perspective. The first relates to the types of shots each team likes to take, the second to the problems with Connecticut’s offense against good teams and the third to a contrast in depth. Let’s start with the advanced box.
| Team | Poss | PPP | eFG | Turn | Reb | FTR |
| Kentucky | 69 | 0.92 | 0.414 | 0.202 | 0.357 | 0.172 |
| Connecticut | 69 | 0.88 | 0.461 | 0.289 | 0.441 | 0.275 |
This point was pounded home by the television commentators, but it’s rare to see a college basketball game in which the 3-pointer had so little effect. The two teams combined to make just 4-of-18 3-pointers. Neither team attempted a 3-pointer on even 20 percent of its field-goal attempts. The national average is 32.5 percent.
The lack of 3-point attempts and makes is not a departure from how these teams usually play. Connecticut has not finished in the nation’s top 300 in 3-point-attempt rate since Ken Pomeroy began keeping these statistics for the 2003-04 season. This season, none of the 347 Division I teams come in lower than UConn’s 17.4 percent 3-point-attempt rate. So, 3-pointers on 11.8 percent of attempts is right in line.
Kentucky has been both more willing (27.9 percent) and more successful (36.8 percent) from the perimeter, but it is still not a team strength. The Cats do have five players who have made at least six 3-pointers this season and have at least a 35-percent conversion rate, led by Darius Miller (14-for-39), Eric Bledsoe (12-for-25) and Darnell Dodson (11-for-29). Connecticut has just one such player — Kemba Walker (10-for-20).
Past Huskies teams have succeeded on offensive despite a lack of 3-point proficiency because they dominated the offensive glass and got to the free-throw line. UConn had it mostly right last night, corralling 44 percent of its misses and getting to the line 24 times, but the Huskies made just 14-of-24. Walker, in particular, had three key misses at the stripe down the stretch.
The other reason for UConn’s poor offensive efficiency is tied to the turnovers. Connecticut has historically been consistently solid if not elite in its ability to take care of the ball, but its ball-handling betrayed the team on Wednesday night. A Kentucky team not especially adept at forcing turnovers forced 20 behind John Wall’s six steals. Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson each had five. The former had a memorable “Harry High School” pass to the wing that Wall intercepted before racing to the basket for a dunk. Dyson exacerbated the bad pass by chasing down Wall to foul him, creating a 3-point play and sending Dyson to the pine with four fouls. It was one of the game’s pivotal plays.
In two games against elite opposition at the Garden this season, UConn’s offense has yet to arrive. Against Duke, the Huskies barely managed 0.8 points per possession thanks to wretched shooting (36.1 eFG). The Blue Devils also kept UConn from dominating the offensive glass and forced turnovers on more than 20 percent of Huskies possessions. Against Kentucky, the shooting wasn’t great, but it was the turnovers that kept UConn from offensive efficiency. The personnel reasons for this lead us directly to the third point.
In a single game, depth is often overplayed in college basketball. With 20-minute halves and commercial breaks every four game minutes, fit college-aged athletes should be able to play 35 minutes without debilitating fatigue setting in. Still, depth may have been a factor on Wednesday night.
Kentucky didn’t get exceptional production out of its bench (which I define as the players who didn’t finish among the top five in minutes on their team rather than simply the players who didn’t start the game on the floor) — seven points, three assists, five blocks, 11 rebounds. That’s a nice total that shows John Calipari calls upon his bench to mainly provide defense as he has others to provide the points. The key is in the comparison. UConn got next to nothing from its bench — two points, one assist, two rebounds. More importantly, perhaps, the Cats got 58 minutes from their bench compared to the Huskies’ 24. Kentucky got 18 percent of its possessions from its bench, three times more than UConn. Gavin Edwards started the game on the bench and scored 16 points, but, like Walker, Dyson, Robinson and Alex Oriakhi, he played more than 30 minutes.
One could make the case that the difference down the stretch was the freshness of Wall in comparison to Walker. Wall played just 29 minutes after sitting out most of the first half with two fouls. He then controlled the game’s final minutes, backing down Walker and shaking free from him at will until Calhoun determined Robinson — who played 37 minutes — was the better defensive answer. After a couple of solid possessions against the freshman phenom, Robinson was carved up by Wall on a pick and roll that resulted in a crippling 3-point play in the final minutes. Walker also played 37 minutes and missed the aforementioned three key free-throws as well as a couple of shots on the final possessions. He may have missed those shots anyway, but there is circumstantial evidence in favor of fatigue being a factor.
A combination of problems — turnovers, poor shooting, lack of depth — sent UConn to a narrow defeat. In a way, UConn has to feel good that it was able to stay with a good team despite its three primary scorers shooting 38.6 eFG and missing seven free throws. The Huskies did a much better job on the defensive glass — against a very good offensive rebounding team — than it had in the loss to Duke.
At the same time, though, the lack of any depth that can provide offense and the inability to knock down a jumpshot might be intractable problems. We’ll know more once Ater Majok hits the floor. Huskies fans have to put thoughts of Ajou Ajou Deng out of their minds and hope Majok gives the UConn offense the diversity that is probably what lies between the Huskies and being an elite team this season.



