The ACC-Big Ten Challenge is closing its 11th edition Wednesday night, and the conference from the Midwest has yet to win it. Five times — including last year — the Big Ten has come up just a game short. Someday the National League will lose the All-Star Game to the American League again, and someday the ACC will fall to the Big Ten. Could that day be today? The oddsmakers put it at just about even money.
The two conferences enter the last day of the challenge with three wins each. The Big Ten took a 3-0 lead in the series when it swept the 7:00 games on Tuesday night, Purdue pulling away from Wake Forest, 70-59, and Northwestern going down to Raleigh and schooling NC State, 65-53. This after Penn State squeaked past Virginia in Charlottesville on Monday night.
The ACC, though, is a resilient league, and the later tip-offs on Tuesday all went its way. Maryland visited hapless Indiana and won by 12. North Carolina hosted Michigan State in a rematch of April’s national title game, and the Tar Heels prevailed again behind Ed Davis, 89-82. Iowa hung with Virginia Tech for most of Tuesday’s final game, but the Hokies slipped away at the end, 70-64.
That brings us to Wednesday and the final five games. The Big Ten is host in three of them, but the ACC is favored in three. Based on the spreads of the game and an odds converter, the ACC is projected to win 2.54 games and the Big Ten is projected to win 2.46, which means the ACC has a 50.8-percent chance of winning the challenge to the Big Ten’s 49.2. It would be hard to set up something more even. Still, there are five games, so one conference must win more.
The ACC starts the night hosting a pair of 7:15 matchups where the home team is favored. (The spreads are there mainly to inform the percentage chances that each team wins and not for betting purposes.)
Illinois at Clemson (-4.5), 7:15 p.m.: The 4.5-point spread makes Clemson the pick to win about 66 percent of the time. The Illini enter off consecutive losses to mediocre Utah and Bradley squads on a neutral court. Illinois’ best win is over Wofford, and UofI is in desperate need of a big non-conference win before the Big Ten season. Clemson comes in of a one-point win over Butler after a fifth-place finish at the Anaheim Classic that included a somewhat surprising loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers force turnovers, and the Illini don’t commit them. If Illinois can hang on to the ball, this game should be close. I still give a solid edge to Clemson.
Minnesota at Miami (-2.5), 7:15 p.m.: The oddsmakers see this as the closest matchup of the night with the undefeated Hurricanes hosting the twice-beaten Gophers and the home team favored to win 57 percent of the time. The Canes’ only win against a quality opponent, though, came in the final of the Charleston Classic, a 15-point victory over South Carolina. Like Illinois, Minnesota enters off of two losses. The Gophers finished a disappointed fourth in the Anaheim Classic thanks to a five-point loss to Portland and a one-point loss to Texas A&M. Still, Minnesota has a terrific defense led by a rare combination of forcing turnovers and defending the rim on 2-pointers. This looks like a good place for the Big Ten to gain a balance-tilting victory.
Boston College at Michigan (-5), 7:30 p.m.: The scene shifts to the Midwest for the third game, where the Big Ten team, once again, enters off of a pair of losses, though Michigan is favored to win this one about 63 percent of the time. The Wolverines fell first to Marquette and then to Alabama in the Old Spice Classic and have not played up to their preseason ranking. Boston College has had its struggles as well, especially with an injury to Rakim Sanders, but the Eagles managed to pull out a tough road win at Providence on Saturday. If it can do it again on Wednesday, Al Skinner’s club will have given the ACC a huge edge. I still like Michigan at home and fairly comfortably.
Duke (-4.5) at Wisconsin, 9:15 p.m.: Duke comes to Madison off the title in the NIT Season Tip-off and is favored to win this matchup 66 percent of the time, the only road favorite of the night. The Blue Devils made quick work of Connecticut in the final in New York, while Wisconsin played well in finishing third at the Maui Invitational last week. This appears to be another Bo Ryan team that will play terrific field-goal defense and shut down that glass, and that’s a good thing because Duke, led by Brian Zoubek, has been thriving on offensive rebounds. Duke’s size has been surprisingly effective this season, as the Blue Devils have had terrific field-goal defense, notably on 2-pointers, and defending them was a struggle last season. Wisconsin will need big games from Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil to have the Blue Devils their first defeat.
Florida State at Ohio State (-6.5), 9:30 p.m.: Should the Big Ten enter the final round of games with five wins, the oddsmakers like the league’s chances of putting away their first Challenge in Columbus where the Buckeyes are the biggest favorites in this five-game slate, expected to win about 73 percent of the time. It’s a mild surprise that OSU is such a big favorite considering its only win of note was over a short-handed Cal team, and the Buckeyes were overmatched by UNC for most of a loss whose four-point margin was smaller than the difference between the two teams on that night.
Florida State recovered nicely from a 16-point shellacking to in-state rival Florida, winning the Old Spice Classic with a come-from-behind victory over Marquette on Sunday, despite trailing by 17 in the second half. Whoever wins inside should win the game, as Florida State has the seventh best interior defense in the country (opponents shoot 37.0 percent on 2-pointers) thanks to three players who already have reached double figures in blocks. Led by Evan Turner’s 65.3 percent shooting on 2-pointers, Ohio State has the third best two-point percentage in the country at 60.3 percent. Something’s got to give. I’ll give OSU a slight edge, smaller than what the oddsmakers think.
