I spent some time in Monday’s Pac-10 Week in Review detailing Oregon State’s slow start last weekend in Lubbock, Texas, but the folks in Corvallis have some company in woe 600 miles to the south. With three starters gone and another injured from his first team in Palo Alto, Johnny Dawkins’ Cardinal has started 1-2 after a two-point loss to Oral Roberts on Wednesday night.
Stanford started the season with a difficult roadtrip to San Diego on Friday, where the Cardinal lost, 77-64. After returning home with a 70-53 win over Cal Poly, Dawkins’ men lost, 83-81, to perennial Summit League contender Oral Roberts. Considering what Stanford lost, this start was not unexpected, but Cardinal fans had hoped for better, even in a transitional season.
To understand the slow start, let’s gain some perspective. The Cardinal was built to win last season. Even after Robin and Brook Lopez went pro in the wake of Stanford’s Sweet 16 run and Trent Johnson’s departure to LSU, Stanford still returned three starters plus emerging Landry Fields. A 10-0 start against a mediocre non-conference disintegrated thanks to a 6-12 Pac-10 record. This was a team with fringe NCAA Tournament talent that wasn’t in the discussion in March.
From that team, guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson graduated as did forward Lawrence Hill and reserve guard Kenny Brown. Big forward Josh Owens was supposed to return alongside Fields, but he remains out with an undisclosed medical condition. Owens hasn’t been cleared for practice, and it’s unclear whether he will play at all this season.
That left Fields, sharp-shooter Jeremy Green, end-of-the-rotation shooter Drew Shiller and little-used guard Jarrett Mann as the four players around which Dawkins would build this year. That’s not a solid foundation for a successful season.
To the returners, Dawkins has added Andrew Zimmermann, a transfer first from Santa Clara and then Foothill College (Calif.). He played sparingly at Santa Clara two seasons ago and brings some rebounding with his 6-foot-9 frame if not much else. Zimmerman and Jack Trotter, a 6-foot-9 sophomore barely used last year, are the starters in the frontcourt. Not surprisingly, Stanford has been exploited around the rim.
The one stat most indicative of how well a team is doing around the basket is 2-point percentage. If a team is shooting well from inside, it’s probably getting efficient offensive production from its frontcourt. If a team is defending the 2-pointer, that’s usually thanks to stern defense by the frontcourt around the rim.
So far this season, Stanford is shooting just 46.9 percent on 2-pointers, while its opponents are converting at a 54.0-percent rate. In the two losses, opponents made 59.1 of all 2-point attempts (the national average is 48 percent). The weak play inside is a major and perhaps unsolvable issue for Dawkins, especially considering that the strength of opposing frontcourts will only improve in Pac-10 play.
| Poss/G | PPP | eFG | Turn | Reb | FTR | |
| Opponents | 72 | 0.99 | 0.509 | 0.218 | 0.247 | 0.220 |
| Stanford | 72 | 1.00 | 0.483 | 0.135 | 0.207 | 0.227 |
The difference in eFG between Stanford and its opponents is entirely attributable to the gap in 2-point percentage and then some. Even though neither Stanford nor its opponents have done much on the offensive glass, the opposition still has the advantage there. Without Owens, Stanford has lost the primary advantage of the typical major-conference team over the typical mid-major team – a frontcourt with athleticism and length.
The poor start has taken the focus off of Fields’ tremendous start. The senior leads the Cardinal in field goals and free throws made and attempted as well as offensive and defensive rebounding, blocks and steals. He’s done it all and done it efficiently, committing just four turnovers — to six assists — while maintaining a 51.9 eFG. Fields’ usage rate is off the charts at 35.2 percent. For comparison’s sake, only Davidson’s Stephen Curry, Central Florida’s Jermaine Taylor and Tennessee-Martin’s Lester Hudson had higher usage rates last season.
Fields is in desperate need of help. The only other player who has a usage rate higher than Shiller’s 18.4 percent is Green with 26.3 (remember, the average is 20 percent). But Green, who has recently recovered from an ankle injury, has been very inefficient with those possessions, making just 4-of-15 2-pointers (26.7 percent) to contribute to a damaging 41.4 eFG. Mann (17.6 usage) and Trotter (8.9 usage) have been efficient in their limited opportunities to shoot and could probably benefit Stanford from being more active. By doing so, they’d take some of the load off of Green, who can’t handle what he has, and Fields, who will have a difficult time sustaining efficiency with that high usage as the competition improves.
Still, one is left with the feeling that there just aren’t enough answers at either end of the floor. Dawkins has Fields, who has star potential and has been forced into a position where he can’t help but make an All-Pac-10 Team. He also has the sophomore Green, a solid shooter overburdened by a lack of teammates to help out. And, finally, there’s the sophomore Mann, who has been a dependable pass-first point guard so far. Ideally, with a sharp-shooter and a pass-first point guard, Stanford would have one high-volume scorer beside Fields in the frontcourt. Owens won’t be that, even should he return, but Trotter and Zimmermann are merely taking up space right now.
Dawkins really needed to bring in impact players for this season with four seniors on last year’s team, but, as a new coach, Dawkins was unable to gain traction with the 2009 class. That will change next season with five recruits already signed, including 4-star center Dwight Powell and 4-star small forward Anthony Brown. Of course, while next winter’s arrivals and a potential Pac-10 title in football may bring solace to the hearts of Stanford fans, they don’t do anything for the senior Fields, who appears to have a Sisyphusian endeavor ahead.



