The best games on Saturday’s slate give us looks at two teams expected to be among the best mid-majors this season as well as a two-time defending conference champion attempting to bring its shooting form south of the Mason-Dixon against an opposing coach making his debut with a new school.
Creighton at Dayton (1 p.m. ET): I feel comfortable calling this the best matchup of the weekend in terms of the quality of the two teams. The problem is injuries. For Dayton, guard Rob Lowery is out, greatly diminishing the Flyers’ backcourt depth. Creighton will be without starting forward Justin Carter. The 6-foor-4 senior has a torn MCL. Casey Harriman and Chad Millard, who are expected to be key cogs in a small Creighton frontcourt may also be out.
Have I diminished the spectacle of this matchup enough yet? Let me rebuild it. Even without those players, this is a game featuring the coaches’ preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 and finish second in the Missouri Valley.
Booker Woodfox is gone from the Bluejays, but P’Allen Stinnett remains as a two-way threat who can dice up opponents with penetration. He and now-departed Josh Dotzler were very tough defensively, big reasons why Creighton was 25th in the nation in turnovers forced last season. One wonders, though, whether Creighton will still be one of the country’s best teams at limiting its own turnovers with the stingy Woodfox gone.
In the frontcourt, 6-9 Kenny Lawson represents most of the size on this team, and, along with his ability to score efficiently inside, he should be one of the nation’s elite shot-blockers this season.
Dayton is coming off a first-round NCAA Tournament victory over West Virginia, a game in which the Flyers’ defensed smothered sharpshooter Alex Ruoff in his final collegiate game. This is nothing new for Dayton, one of the terrific defensive teams in the nation. The Flyers use their length and athleticism to stifle the opposition’s perimeter game and control the defensive glass. When it comes to length and athleticism, few surpass Chris Wright, the preseason Atlantic 10 Player of the Year. While maintaining passable offensive efficiency for a player who shoots so often, the 6-8 Wright is relentless on defense, hitting the glass, blocking shots and picking up steals as well.
Beyond Wright, there’s London Warren, a defense and passing-first point guard, who was in the nation’s top 20 last season in both assist and steals rate. Marcus Johnson is the team’s best shooter among the starters, but Brian Gregory will go deep into his rotation. Twelve players averaged at least eight minutes per game last season. That means run for 6-9 shooter Luke Fabrizius, who made 37 percent of his deep looks as a freshman last season.
I’m interested to see if Dayton’s offense takes the next step that the team needs to allow the Flyers to become an elite team rather than merely a solid mid-seeded NCAA team. As for Creighton, with a Missouri Valley team having been dubiously omitted from the NCAA Tournament field in each of the last three seasons (Missouri State in 2007, Illinois State in 2008 and Creighton in 2009), the Bluejays and the conference can use every marquee non-league win they can get — injuries or not.
Cornell at Alabama (2 p.m. ET): The Ivy League favorite heads to Tuscaloosa to take on an SEC also-ran in Anthony Grant’s first game at his new digs.
Steve Donahue has broken the stranglehold of Penn and Princeton by winning consecutive league titles, and he returns most of his key parts, notably Ryan Wittman. The 6-6 junior is simply a terrific scorer, too good for his league, one might say. He can shoot the three (41.6 percent on 233 attempts last year), get by on the two (49.3 percent on 203 attempts) and make free throws (81.8 percent on 99 attempts).
With 7-footer Jeff Foote gone, the Big Red’s interior defense should take a step back (Foote was granted another year of eligibility. Poor research on my part — thanks, Greg), but the offense could be even better if 5-11 guard Louis Dale continues to fill it up like he did last year. Considering his lack of size, Dale is surprising good at scoring inside (53.1 percent on 2-pointers), and his ability to penetrate helps allows him to setup teammates like Wittman, Geoff Reeves (42.1 percent from deep) and Chris Wroblewski (44.1 percent) for open looks. Not surprisingly, Cornell was eighth in the nation in 3-point field-goal percentage last season.
Alabama has an obvious talent advantage wherever Wittman is not, led by JaMychal Green, Mikhail Torrance and Senario Hillman. Green is a ferocious offensive rebounder and shot-blocker, and he was just a freshman last season. Torrance is a capable slasher at 6-5. Hillman figures to be the go-to guy this year, but he shot far too much last season for a player with a 46.4 percent eFG and few positive peripheral offensive traits.
Grant comes in off a successful tenure at VCU, where he showed an ability to adapt to his personnel. His early teams were small and quick, so he used the turnover differential to his advantage. As he brought in more of his own players — notably Larry Sanders — his teams became tougher on the interior and less focused on forcing turnovers and the risks that trying to force turnovers promotes.
Mark Gottfried’s Alabama teams were never interested in forcing turnovers and often had a big man — be it Green, Richard Hendrix, Jermareo Davidson or Chuck Davis — to keep opponents away from the basket. We’ll see how Grant mixes personnel with his system, but you can bet he’ll leverage Green’s defense inside for all it’s worth.
Against Cornell, the top priority will be defending the 3-pointer. Grant’s Rams were inconsistent in their ability to defend the 3-pointer, terrific in even seasons (2005-06 and 2007-08) and terrible in odd ones (2006-07 and 2008-09). We’ll see whether the even-year success carries over to Bama.




4 Comments
There should be a correction on the Cornell-Alabama game guys. Jeff Foote is not gone. He is still on the team and has a fifth year of eligibility due to transfer rules. Inside Defense is the same.
Another Correction: Wittman….not Whitman.
Thanks, Greg. Correction made above. We’re in need of another proofer. You interested in some pro bono work?
Jeff Foote made sure everyone new he was still around in Cornell’s big win on Saturday: 17 points, seven rebounds, three blocks in 35 minutes.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/viewcast/2009/11/14/59783_viewcast_boxscore.html