2008-09 in review: A conference that once dominated March has, of late, become a league with one team that dominates March while 11 other teams sit in their dorm rooms and watch. For the third straight season, North Carolina was the only ACC team to reach a regional final. Duke became the only team not named “North Carolina” to make the Sweet 16 since 2006, but the Blue Devils were brusquely dismissed by Final Four-bound Villanova. ACC teams not from Chapel Hill have just a 9-16 NCAA Tournament record in the last three tournaments.
Before continuing with the ACC negativity, I must first pay homage to the team of last season, the Tar Heels. UNC perhaps didn’t sail through the ACC season as smoothly as many assumed — in fact, Roy Williams’ team started ACC play 0-2 — but, by the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, there was nothing stopping the Tar Heels. UNC’s offense was one of the best in recent memory, and only Oklahoma came close to slowing it down in the NCAA Tournament. Behind the inside-outside combination of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough, and with Wayne Ellington hitting his stride — not to mention about six or seven other players who would start on any team in the country — North Carolina was hardly challenged in winning each NCAA Tournament game by at least 12.
At one point or another, three ACC teams besides UNC had the look of a top team last season, but each had their flaws revealed and saw their seasons end in embarrassing March departures. After a 16-0 start to the season, Clemson lost nine of its final 16, including a three-point loss to No. 10 seed Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Wake Forest also started 16-0, but the young Demon Deacons then lost five of nine, briefly righted the ship in early March, but fell in the first rounds of the ACC and NCAA tournaments, including a 15-point loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State. Duke didn’t fall nearly as hard after its 18-1 start, though the Devils did lose four-of-six at one point. Duke was terrific in the ACC Tournament, winning the final over Florida State, and the Devils knocked off a tough Texas team to reach the Sweet 16 but fell by 23 in a wretched display of shooting in Boston.
Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the league has gone from the best conference in the NCAA Tournament to fifth, ahead of only the SEC among major conferences. This is how the conferences have improved or gotten worse in March since 2006, according to average NCAA Tournament Conference Score.
| Conference | 2000-05 | 2006-09 | Diff |
| Pac-10 | 1.08 | 1.35 | 0.27 |
| Big East | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| SEC | 1.03 | 1.02 | -0.01 |
| Big 12 | 1.24 | 1.11 | -0.14 |
| Big Ten | 1.33 | 1.11 | -0.22 |
| ACC | 1.55 | 1.04 | -0.51 |
It’s not as simple as saying that Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College have killed the ACC, but it’s part of it. While the Big East added top-20 programs in Louisville, Marquette and — they hope soon — Cincinnati, the ACC added something less valuable. Of course, Herb Sendek’s departure from Raleigh, which turned the Wolfpack program into a nightmare (15-33 in conference over the last three seasons) hasn’t helped. Four years is not a sample that will impress any scientist, but the basketball folks in the ACC have to at least worry if the league hasn’t lost its preeminence in exchange for not much gain at all on the football side. (The Pac-10’s improvement is due almost solely to Ben Howland’s turnaround in Westwood.)
What you need to know: This league is deep. There may not be a bonifide national title contender in the group, but nine of the conference’s 12 teams enter the season expecting to make the NCAA Tournament, and Miami and Virginia have aspirations as well. North Carolina and Duke should again lead the pack, but the second tier of the ACC could be nine teams deep. I would be surprised if the league sends fewer than seven teams to the NCAAs, and eight is a possibility.
The interesting aspect of the league is sorting out teams 3-11, which is not to say Duke and UNC up top is set in stone. Maryland returns the most of the teams that went to the NCAAs last season, and yet Gary Williams’ Terps are not ranked in the preseason AP poll. Georgia Tech returns most of its pieces and adds one of the nation’s best recruiting classes, but the Jackets have the furthest to go, having finished 2-14 in conference last season. In their defense, three of those losses were in overtime and another four (plus the ACC Tournament loss) were by five points or fewer. Clemson and Wake Forest each lost three rotation players, but both still return plenty, and the Tigers bring in a good recruiting class.
That leaves the perennially underrated Boston College, which returns all but high-volume scorer Tyrese Rice; Florida State, which lost two big pieces but should have enough coming back off of last year’s breakout season; Virginia Tech, which has now finished just off the edge of the NCAA field in back-to-back years; Miami off last season’s disappointment and with several players having departed, including Jack McClinton; and Virginia with new coach Tony Bennett and most of Dave Leitao’s players back but off a 4-12 season.
The omission of NC State from the last two paragraphs was not a mistake.
Team that lost the most: A team like North Carolina can be good enough to win a league even as good as the ACC year in and year out, but it takes a special mix to be good enough to win the title. UNC had that mix last season, and it’s no surprise that most of those players are gone. I’ve mentioned Hansbrough, Lawson and Ellington, but Danny Green and Bobby Frasor were exceptionally valuable role players in the run to the national title. No major-conference team lost more than Roy’s boys.
North Carolina State and Miami also lost a bunch. The Wolfpack has really imploded under Sidney Lowe. At age 22, Brandon Costner, who was to be Lowe’s top returner, decided to declare for the NBA Draft. He went undrafted. Ben McCauley, a very important contributor for four seasons, Courtney Fells and Trevor Ferguson also depart.
Frank Haith didn’t get as much of out last year’s team as most expected. Miami started 13-3, including wins at Kentucky and Boston College — the former would look less impressive with each passing week — but the ‘Canes started 4-8 in conference and weren’t really in the mix for a bid down the stretch. Now, sharpshooter McClinton is gone as well as quality rotation players Lance Hurdle, Brian Asbury and Jimmy Graham.
Several other teams lost key pieces, including James Johnson and Jeff Teague at Wake Forest, Toney Douglas and Uche Echefu at Florida State and K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby at Clemson.
Team that returns the most: Leitao left his successor with many players; it’s just not clear how good those players are. We know Sylvan Landesburg is good, very good in fact; probably good enough to be an all-league player as soon as this season. Mike Scott in the front court gives UVa a solid inside-outside combo. Bennett’s going to have to get better minutes from once highly-touted Jeff Jones as well as Calvin Baker and Sammy Zeglinski, because the offense — especially the shooting — was pretty terrible last season.
Maryland returns almost as much as Virginia, led by Greivis Vasquez, who would have gotten a very long look by NBA executives had he stayed in June’s draft. Fellow guards Adrian Bowie and Eric Hayes as well as forward Landon Milbourne give Williams a nucleus to build on last season’s relative success.
Team most impacted by newcomers: This one’s a toss-up between Georgia Tech and North Carolina, but we’ll go with GaTech, since it’s unlikely that any newcomer will have a bigger impact than Derrick Favors. The 6-foot-9 big man brings to campus a reputation as a terrific defender and rebounder as well as a potentially dominant player in the post. He’s likely to be a one-and-done. Paul Hewitt has also added point guard Mfon Udofia and forward Kammeon Holsey at the top of a terrific six-man class. The six new recruits — Glen Rice Jr. a famous name among the other three — join several talented returners for a Yellow Jackets program that has not won in the NCAA Tournament since 2005.
North Carolina has brought in another top class led by John Henson, a multi-talented big man who is even lankier than Ed Davis. Guards Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald and twin forwards David and Travis Wear join last year’s terrific freshman class to form the core of UNC’s title defender.
Team that will disappoint: Beyond the team I’ll highlight in the next section, I don’t have many qualms with the ACC media’s preseason projections for the league. I’m inclined to choose either of the teams I featured in the previous section as the likely disappointers. UNC is picked in a tie for first but is dependent on a lot of semi-untested players to take on large loads. Georgia Tech is picked fourth, but that certainly looks like the upper bound of where the Jackets are likely to finish — unless Favors has a Kevin Love-like impact — so to pick them to come in below that off a 2-14 season is the sensible play.
Team that will surprise: As you may already have noticed, I’m high on Maryland. The Terrapins have a very talented backcourt led by one of the best floor leaders in the nation, and they have a proven coach who is itching to get back near the top of the league. The media picked the Terps fifth in their preseason poll, and while Maryland may not be as talented as teams 1-4, I like the Terps to finish third. If freshman Jordan Williams and the returning frontcourt players can do anything to mitigate Maryland’s near-nightly size disadvantage, this team should finish near the top of the league.
Player due for a breakout: With McClinton now in the NBA, there are a lot of shots there for the taking in South Florida, and Dwayne Collins is well-equipped to take many of them. He averaged 10.6 ppg and 7.3 rpg as a junior, solid numbers no doubt, and that in less than 25 minutes per game. With more minutes and more touches, the 6-8 forward should be able to get close to 16 point per game and 10 rebounds and perhaps more. He’s one of the toughest players to guard in the league, as indicated by his ability to draw fouls. Only Tyler Hansbrough drew more per 40 minutes on the floor among ACC players last season. He should be an All-ACC selection next spring.
Underrated player: A transfer from Vermont, Joe Trapani made an immediate impact for Boston College last season. He was the long-range bomber that most folks in Chestnut Hill expected (36.4 percent on 143 3-point attempts), but what most outsiders didn’t foresee was what he brought on the defensive end. He was Al Skinner’s best defensive rebounder and shot-blocker on a team in desperate need of both. He also drew more fouls than anyone but Rice.



