In last week’s preview, I mused about the possibility of two Tigers, two Huskies and a Dick Enberg meeting up in Glendale this week. Enberg, two teams of Tigers and one team of Huskies will be there, but Purdue crashed the party with a two-point win over Washington on Saturday evening. Despite being one of just two teams seeded below the top four lines to make it to the second weekend of the Tournament, the Boilermakers fit right in a region where all four defenses are among the nation’s top 10.
Let’s take a look at these matchups, which will leave Enberg saying, “Oh, my!” and Jay Bilas being a self-righteous — though usually accurate — know-it-all. Some things never change.
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 1 Connecticut (7:07 p.m. ET): Purdue is a team I’ve touted for a long time as a potential Final Four team, but I failed to stick to my guns when I picked Washington to defeat Purdue in the Second Round on Saturday. The Boilermakers weren’t able to keep Washington off the offensive glass, but they did keep the Huskies off the foul line thanks in large part to JuJuan Johnson’s presence inside. Connecticut presents similar problems for Purdue’s capable defense, but these Huskies are better at both shooting and taking care of the ball than Washington is.
With a defense that is adept at keeping opponents off the line and especially at field-goal defense, Purdue has a real shot at terrific first-shot defense. Connecticut is a good but not great shooting team, and A.J. Price is the only reliable perimeter shooter on the Huskies. Purdue has its perimeter-shooter antidote in Chris Kramer, who will do his best to give Price a difficult time. Price hit 8-of-16 shots in UConn’s 26-point win over Texas A&M, including a 4-of-7 performance on 3-pointers. The rest of the Huskies team made one and attempted just three 3-pointers in that Second Round win.
If Purdue can shut down the perimeter shooting and do its typical job on 2-pointers and limiting fouls, then it has one job left. That job — to prevent UConn’s second chances — is likely to be the most difficult to accomplish. Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien and Stanley Robinson are all terrific offensive rebounders, and Purdue is only adequate on the defensive glass. Robbie Hummel is far and away Purdue’s best defensive rebounder, but no one else — including Johnson — is very good on this end. If Purdue can’t finish defensive possessions by grabbing the rebound, all of its other work may be for naught.
The weakest of the eight units in Glendale is Purdue’s offense, which is why Connecticut is the favorite in this Sweet 16 matchup. Matt Painter has never had a great offense in his time in West Lafayette, and this one is no different. No one besides Johnson gets to the line very much, and the sophomore is also the only player who bothers to hang around the offensive glass much. Of the 20 teams seeded No. 5 or better, only three — Louisville Pittsburgh and Illinois get to the foul line less often than Purdue — and only Utah and Illinois grab fewer offensive rebounds. It’s no surprise that Painter’s team profiles so similarly to Bruce Weber’s Illinois team, as Painter coached under Weber for five years at Southern Illinois and both are part of Gene Keady’s coaching tree.
For a Big Ten champion to struggle so much in two of the four factors, you’d expect it to be proficient in the other two, and you’d be half right. Purdue rarely turns the ball over, committing turnovers on 18 percent or fewer of its possessions in seven straight games. But this is not a great shooting team. The Boilers haven’t hit 50 percent eFG in its last four games despite having won all of them, and that is unlikely to change on Thursday.
Connecticut has the second best field-goal defense in the country — only Memphis’ is better and that’s against far weaker competition. On the inside, Stanley Robinson and Gavin Edwards join Hasheem Thabeet as a unit that defends the rim as well as any in the country, but Jim Calhoun’s team doesn’t forsake the perimeter in favor of packing it in. Connecticut is 23rd in the nation in 3-point defense — opponents have shot just 30.6 percent from deep against the Huskies.
Only one of UConn’s last 15 opponents has shot at least 50 percent eFG — Marquette in UConn’s 93-82 win on Feb. 25. On that night, Marquette made 11-of-21 3-pointers, so it was selective in its outside shooting but deadly accurate when it did. Four different Golden Eagles made at least two 3-pointers on that night, so it will probably take the combined effort of Hummel, E’twaun Moore and Keaton Grant — all are capable 3-point shooters — to keep Purdue’s offense competitive on Thursday.
UConn doesn’t try to force turnovers, which is probably a good thing against Purdue, and the Boilermakers figure to hardly ever get to the line, since UConn is the least likely to give its opponents free throws of any team in the country. The Huskies are adequate if not dominant on the defensive glass — they’d probably be better if they didn’t go for so many blocks — but Purdue might not have anyone around to corral those misses anyway.
In one game, practically anything can happen, but that “anything” probably does not include Purdue getting many offensive rebounds or free throws. With large disadvantages is those two categories and turnovers unlikely from either side, it will take a large gap in shooting percentages in Purdue’s favor for the Boilermakers to win. Most of that edge is likely to come from the perimeter, where Purdue will have to limit Price and use its multiple shooters to bridge the gaps elsewhere on the floor.
No. 3 Missouri vs. No. 2 Memphis (9:37 p.m. ET): No team improved its performance more from one round to the next as much as Memphis did last weekend. After trailing a weak No. 15 seed for much of the way on Thursday, the Tigers had no trouble with a Maryland team in good form. What’s most interesting about Memphis’ play this weekend was how the defense was anything but dominant. Facing two teams that no one would describe as terrific offensively, Memphis’ much ballyhooed defense was merely mortal. Cal State-Northridge’s shooting was terrific and Maryland’s turnovers were non-existent as the two teams combined for 140 points in 137 possessions. Maryland’s 1.06 points per possessions marked the first time that Memphis had allowed even one point per possession since Feb. 4 at Southern Methodist.
At the same time that Memphis’ defensive was destroying the myth of its invincibility, the Tigers’ offense was doing the same to its perceived vulnerability. Saturday’s offensive performance was a clinic against a mediocre Terrapins defense. Primarily thanks to unconscious shooting (67.9 percent eFG), Memphis scored a season-high 1.35 points per possession. Roburt Sallie continued his hot shooting with three 3-pointers and Doneal Mack added five in a 10-for-19 perimeter shooting performance. The Tigers were hardly worse inside — 21-for-32. Memphis has transformed from an awful 3-point shooting team to a surprisingly good one, a weapon in Memphis’ attack that opposing coaches previously did not need to worry about. Now the Tigers can add 3-point shooting to few turnovers and good offensive rebounding on Memphis’ growing list of positive offensive characteristics.
The good news for the other Tigers fans — Missouri’s — is that their defense is great at limiting 3-pointers — unlike Maryland’s — so reverting Memphis to its previous outside-shooting form won’t be Missouri’s toughest task. That toughest task will be keeping Memphis off the glass. Missouri is a weak defensive rebounding team with Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll the only Tigers who play often and make an impact on that glass. Memphis will send Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart to the boards along with the hefty Pierre Henderson-Niles when he’s in the game. At 6-foot-6, point guard Tyreke Evans also makes an impact on both glasses.
With Missouri all but punting the defensive glass and likely to keep Memphis’ perimeter shooting in check, the (Columbia) Tigers’ ability to force turnovers may determine whether Missouri can cool off Memphis’ offense. Missouri thrives on turnovers. It helps Mike Anderson’s team to push the pace — the Tigers play the second fastest of the remaining teams — and it’s the primary way Missouri shuts down the opposing offense.
Led by guards J.T. Tiller and Marcus Denmon and do-everything forward Carroll, Missouri is third in the nation in steals, but it faces a Memphis team that has done a better and better job of taking care of the ball as the season has progressed. Evans continues to cough up about four turnovers per game, but his total is not obscene for how involved he is in the offense. Players like Antonio Anderson — Cal-State Northridge meltdown excepted — have improved their ability to take care of the ball as the season has progressed. Missouri’s proficiency at forcing a reversion to its early-season turnover form — one that saw the Tigers turn the ball over on 25 percent and 26 percent of their possessions in their last two losses against Georgetown and Syracuse respectively — is probably the key to keeping Memphis off the scoreboard.
If Memphis is able to take care of the ball, it should have an edge in the halfcourt offense, where Marquette gave John Calipari a blueprint — spread the Tigers out and drive to the rim. The dribble-drive is a natural and essential part of Memphis’ offense, which means that Missouri will have to do a better job of defending it or risk being torched by Evans like it was by Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews.
At the other end of the floor, the key is a battle of strengths. Missouri’s ability to hit shots, namely twos, against a Memphis defense that is among the nation’s best at preventing them is the factor on which Missouri’s ability to score points is likely to turn. Run-and-gun style teams usually shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but not at Missouri where Lyons and Carroll are by far most often to shoot, and they both score primarily inside. Carroll is one of the most efficient interior players in the country, making 58 percent of 376 2-point attempts this season. Lyons is not quite as accurate (50.5 percent on 325 attempts) but is still effective with such a high volume of shots. The 6-foot-3 Tiller, whose last-minute drives to the basket were so key in Missouri’s win over Marquette on Sunday, is the other prong of the interior attack. His 49.2 conversion rate on 2-pointers is good for a guard.
Memphis has three answers for Missouri’s three inside scorers, and you’ve heard their names before — Dozier, Taggart and Evans. Individually, none of the three is a superb shot-blocker, but collectively, they are strong, and they affect a lot more shots than just the ones they block. The closest thing Missouri has seen to Memphis’ 2-point defense was on a trip to Austin in February. The Tigers walked away with a four-point win, but that was despite their inside shooting and not because of it. Still, it wasn’t Missouri’s big three that struggled inside — Carroll, Tiller and Lyons combined to shoot a very solid 15-for-27 on twos (55.6 percent). The rest of the team was just 7-for-19 (36.8).
While this game should turn on Missouri’s ability to force turnovers and score inside, the beauty of basketball is its unpredictability. Who would have guessed that two teams much better at defense than offense — Michigan State and Southern Cal — would each score more than a point per possession in their Second Round matchup? In fact, who would have guessed that Memphis’ offense and defense would perform the way it did last weekend, a reversal of its season-long strengths? After breaking down all the matchups, Connecticut and Memphis have clear but small advantages over Purdue and Missouri. These are edges that are marginal enough to flip on a big foul call or no-call, or a 3-pointer that goes down or rims out. In a matter of hours, we’ll know whether past performance truly indicates future returns for these four teams or whether fate has something just slightly unexpected in store.
