In an opening weekend of “almosts,” it turned out that we almost had all of the top-four seeds advance to the Sweet 16. Only Cleveland State’s tip-to-buzzer beating of Wake Forest (predicted by Lukas last week) and Purdue’s last-minute win over Washington prevented a Tournament chalky enough for a pool cue. Over the next few days, we’re going to do some looking ahead and some looking back, and let’s start with a look at the weekend’s statistical storylines.

Chalk one up for balance: We mentioned in our previews last week that Florida State and Boston College out of the ACC were two teams on opposite spectrums. FSU was the all-defense, no-offense team and BC the all-offense, no-defense team among the major-conference squads in the Tournament. Both tasted defeat against lower-seeded teams in the First round on Friday.

In a matchup of strength vs. strength in Boise, Florida State was able to hold Wisconsin’s offense in check. The Seminoles kept the Badgers off the glass and the free-throw line, but could do no better on offense. FSU is a team very willing to give up the ball, while Wisconsin is a team that rarely forces turnovers, but the Noles won out in this battle of weaknesses, still committing 14 turnovers. Toney Douglas was the biggest culprit with five, but at least he made 8-of-16 shots and got to the line nine times. Derwin Kitchen had three turnovers while making just 3-of-8 shots, as FSU was unable to close the deal thanks to an offense unable to score consistently.

Boston College found itself unable to score or defend against USC, a team that profiles more similarly to FSU than to a truly balanced team. Still, the Trojans offense has shown a bit more potency in their recent run of good play. The Eagles had no answer for Taj Gibson inside. The big man hit all 10 of his field-goal attempts and added four free-throws. Josh Southern was no match, as USC doubled up on BC, 42-21, in the second half of a 17-point win.

DeRozan bloom: While Southern Cal was pushing Michigan State to the brink in another “almost” on Sunday, Lukas and I were discussing how exactly USC went from well out of the NCAA Tournament to worthy opponent of No. 2 seed MSU in a few weeks. At first, we wondered whether USC’s six losses in seven games in a wretched February was simply the product of a tough schedule. After all, five of them were on the road against four NCAA Tournament teams — UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, and Cal. Stanford was the other loss, the last of the bunch, by 12 in Palo Alto. The lone home loss was to league champion Washington, nothing to be embarrassed by.

At the same time, though, Notre Dame had a rough seven-game stretch against a better composite of teams than USC and emerged from it with no long streaks to competence. Good teams — and neither USC through 28 games nor Notre Dame all season were good teams — just don’t lose that many games in that short a period of time. USC was playing better now because it was better now. Notre Dame was still an NIT team because it hadn’t gotten appreciably better. In other words, this was a different USC team than the one that had lost six of seven and the reason why is DeMar DeRozan.

With the exception of a few memorable moments — notably a dominant performance against Arizona State and James Harden in a Jan. 15 win — DeRozan had been underwhelming it was supposed to be a one-done vault into the NBA Lottery. But something has changed and the change corresponded with USC’s run to within a couple of shots of the Sweet 16.

DeRozan did practically everything better down the stretch, from shooting to getting to the line to rebounding on both glasses to taking care of the ball to blocking shots. He went from being a decent piece on a disappointing team to being one of the best players on one of the best teams in the Pac-10. That’s the difference between an NIT team and a team that fell just short of the Sweet 16. If Zach Hillesland or Jonathan Peoples had made a similar transition for USC, the Irish might have had a similar run.

It’s not the Truth: I’ve been peddling this “James Harden is the left-handed Paul Pierce” thing for months now, but the way Harden’s season ended makes me wonder. In Arizona State’s Pac-10 Tournament final loss to USC, Harden didn’t score until a 3-pointer at the halftime buzzer. In the Sun Devils’ loss to Syracuse on Sunday, Harden didn’t score at all in the first 20. There’s something to be said for being a team player, and Harden did have 13 assists to just five turnovers in those two games. At some point, though, you need your stars to be stars and Herb Sendek’s star was simply a complementary player and nice distributor in two of Arizona State’s biggest games.

Maybe Harden was just going through a bad stretch of games and didn’t want to force it when he didn’t have it. He shot 6-for-27 over ASU’s final three games with four 3-pointers. Still, Harden had three of his five lowest-scoring games of the season in ASU’s last three games, and ASU came up with too few points in both games.

What does this mean for Harden? I’m not a draft prognosticator, and I would still take Harden high, but with reservations. Harden remains a big strong 2-guard who uses his body well, gets to the line, can pass, rebound, pick up steals and play with intelligence. At the same time, he’s not a superior athlete, and he may not ever be a No. 1 guy on a good team. Still, guys like Lamar Odom have been important parts of very good teams and made a lot of money without ever being a dependable No. 1 option.

Oh, and it’s not like ASU’s offense was its biggest problem. Its matchup zone defense posed no problems for Syracuse, who torched it for a 64.9 eFG and 1.27 points per possession.

An aching defeat: I’m not sure I’ve ever been as disappointed for a group of seniors as I was for Marquette on Sunday evening after its 83-79 loss to Missouri. This is a group of kids that had been through so much. Jerel McNeal injured his hand and missed the Big East Tournament their sophomore year. Marquette stumbled to a First Round NCAA Tournament loss against Michigan State. Last year, Marquette made it to the Second Round where the Golden Eagles took the immense Stanford Cardinal to overtime. There, Brook Lopez hit an improbable shot to knock out Marquette. Days later, their coach, Tom Crean, had left for Indiana.

Senior year comes, and it looks like things begin to fall into place. McNeal and Wesley Matthews have become good jump shooters, and Dominic James understands his role well. New coach Buzz Williams has tailored the offense to his players, and MU started 12-2 in conference. Then, on Feb. 25, James broke his foot at the start of a four-game losing streak into the Big East Tournament. At the Big East Tournament, Marquette fell behind by 17 points to Villanova, stormed all the way back before losing on Dwayne Anderson’s reverse lay-up at the buzzer.

Marquette then headed back to the NCAA Tournament, squeaked by its first game with Utah State and entered a matchup against Missouri with James suddenly available for limited action. Then, Marquette fell behind by 16 points, unable to stop Missouri at all. James was a non-factor — he couldn’t create his own shots or anyone else’s or make his typical impact on the defensive end.

But as these Marquette kids have done so many times before, their toughness shone through with McNeal and Matthews taking the ball to the rim time and time again. Despite not being able to make shots at an efficient rate, the Golden Eagles got to the line 33 times, making 28. McNeal and Matthews combined to make 21-of-24.

Marquette took a 78-75 lead with 1:50 left and looked like it would finally come up with a signature win to send these seniors to the Sweet 16. But again, the Eagles were denied. The first error — after a J.T. Tiller free throw — was not getting the ball in the hands of McNeal or Matthews on a possession that ended with Jimmy Butler’s airball 3-pointer and a shotclock violation. Leo Lyons then scored and was fouled by Jerel McNeal, converting the free throw to give Missouri a one-point lead.

After McNeal tied the score by making 1-of-2, Tiller used a screen to get an open alley to the basket and was fouled hard by McNeal. Tiller came up gasping for air and was replaced by Kim English — he of the awesome first half — and the freshman, who, while a better shooter than Tiller was 10 percent worse at the foul line, made both to give Missouri a two-point lead.

Lazar Hayward, a junior, then made the last critical of play of his senior teammates’ career. He stepped in bounds before releasing his pass from the baseline, a turnover that basically ended Marquette’s hopes in the cruelest way possible. Lyons made both of his free throws, and the amazing careers of Matthews, McNeal and James ended without a trip to the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend.

In the end, a play or two is magnified, but the inability of Marquette’s defense to force any turnovers or keep Missouri in check inside — 57 percent on 2-pointers — were too much to overcome. This set of senior guards didn’t have a big man to go to — and didn’t even have a good-defending big man this season with Ousmane Barro’s graduation. That fatal flaw kept Marquette from making an NCAA Tournament impact.

There will be more to come from Lukas and I as we get ready for the Sweet 16 on Thursday.