The Pac-10 may be the most underrated conference in the NCAA this season. It’s a young league that went through typical struggles early in the season, but it has improved as the season has progressed, and that gave the fan compelling conference action. The RPI, however, lags far behind the actual quality of the competition, because all those non-conference games came early. Teams like Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona played by far their best ball in conference play after up-and-down — or in OSU’s case, mainly down — performances in pre-conference action.
Without a truly elite team and without any terrible teams — excepting Oregon, which is unlikely to make it to Thursday and which has actually won two straight — the Pac-10 should be among the most competitive conference tournaments this week.
Take it slow: With the exception of the Big Ten, no major conference takes its time as much as the Pac-10. Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon State are among the five slowest-paced major-conference teams in the nation. UCLA has quickened its pace to the point where it is actually in the top half of the conference in tempo, despite Ben Howland’s reputation for being, well, deliberate. Still, six of the 10 Pac-10 teams are significantly better on offense than defense, meaning there might be a lot of highly efficient games played in the 50s and 60s. Washington State’s overtime win against Arizona State in Pullman was the slowest-paced major-conference game this season. Too bad those two could only meet in the finals.
Bubble watch: Two Pac-10 teams have a chance to turn their NCAA Tournament fates from negative to positive with strong performances in the conference tournament. Arizona plays Arizona State in an intriguing 4-5 matchup. The Wildcats lost both regular-season meetings, but both were within single digits and Arizona lost by just two in Tempe on Feb. 22. In that game, ASU had a 67.8 eFG, something Herb Sendek’s team is unlikely to duplicate. That game will be at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday and a win should clinch Zona’s bid.
USC is the other team that can make the NCAA field with a deep run in the tourney, and the Trojans will be playing in its hometown, as the Staples Center is hosting the event. USC opens up with Cal, a team the Trojans defeated by 11 at the Galen Center and lost to in overtime in Berkeley. USC really hurt the Bears on the boards in both games — Cal’s ability to check Taj Gibson on the glass will be key — but the first was highly defensive and the second highly offensive. USC’s 59.4 eFG in the loss at Cal was its second best shooting performance of the Pac-10 schedule. That game is at 9 p.m. on Thursday. Even if USC defeats Cal, the Trojans are likely to need a second win to make the field. USC lost twice to UCLA — its semifinal opponent should both teams win in the quarters. The game at USC was close, but the one at UCLA was not. USC’s offense had its second worst offensive performance of the season — the worst was at Washington — in the trip to Pauley.
Cougar alert: Washington State is playing great basketball. In fact, if the Cougars had managed to defeat Washington on Saturday, they would have been in the bubble discussion. But Tony Bennett’s team lost that game after consecutive wins at UCLA and at home to Arizona and Arizona State. WSU is a team of extremes — very slow pace, no offensive rebounding, all defensive rebounding, no free throws, no forced turnovers, great interior field-goal defense. This has caused some weird results — including the 51-49 overtime win against ASU that saw just 52 possessions and the uber-efficient 82-81, 65-possession win at UCLA, the Bruins’ only home loss of the season (EDIT: UCLA also lost to Arizona State at Pauley). WSU has Oregon in the first round on Wednesday and then UCLA again before potential matchups with any of the three teams Washington State did not defeat in conference play — Cal/USC (in the semis) or Washington (in the final).
Handicapping the field: Washington and UCLA enter as co-favorites. UCLA gets the slight nod because of the hometown factor. The draw slightly favors Washington. Stanford or Oregon State likely followed by Arizona State — three teams Washington swept — is an easier road to the final than Washington State and then either USC or Cal. It’s a large step down to the next four teams — Arizona State, USC, Cal and Washington State. I’d put the teams in that order, since the Bears get USC and UCLA in their hometowns just to make the final and run into Washington or ASU. The Bears did hand Washington two of its four conference losses, which is something to note should Mike Montgomery’s team makes it to Saturday. As far as upsets to look out for, this won’t be a tournament with many heavy favorites in a given game, but I’d give Stanford a decent shot of taking out Washington in the quarters if the Cardinal gets by Oregon State. UW did sweep Stanford, but the two wins came by a total of just eight points, including a dramatic win in Seattle on a Jon Brockman put-back.




2 Comments
Re: UCLA home record: “Wazzou’s . . . 65-possession win at UCLA, the Bruins’ only home loss of the season.
Arizona State also beat UCLA at Pauley.
Good call — and to think I wrote a whole piece about that ASU game: http://www.baselinestats.com/20090118/harden-refuses-to-leave-la-winless-asu-in-thick-of-pac-10-race/
I’ll edit that.
Thanks.