The Big 12 has flown somewhat under the radar compared to fellow BCS conferences this year. The conference featured neither multiple high-soaring teams at the top of the league a la the Big East and ACC nor the down-to-the-wire bubble mayhem of the Pac-10 and Big Ten, nor even the generally uninspiring and sloppy play of the SEC. Once Blake Griffin went down and with it Oklahoma’s likely No. 1 seed, the focus switched to the bubble race. Fortunately for fans of Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas, their teams are looking pretty solid in terms of an at-large bid for the NCAAs, but unfortunately for the conference officials, there is a good chance that Selection Sunday will not spring any major surprises.

• Big 12 Bracket »

Where things stand: According to the latest Bracket Junkie, here is where the Big 12 teams stand going in to the conference tournament.

Locks:
Oklahoma (2)
Kansas (3)
Missouri (4)

Almost Home:
Texas A&M (7)
Oklahoma State (8)
Texas (8)

Conference Final and Pray:
Kansas State
Nebraska

Need Automatic Bid:
Everyone Else

One And Done?: The first thing to analyze is, could the three teams that are almost home be denied should enough things go the wrong way during conference tourney week? The first step in this process is always to analyze conference tourney upsets that likely will eat up extra at-large bids. With a loss to Cleveland State in the Horizon Conference Final, Butler most certainly fits the bill of an at-large stealer.

Others that may steal a bid:
Xavier
Memphis
Utah State
Davidson (already lost)
Creighton (already lost)

I think that of this group, and including Butler, one or two major-conference at-large bids will be lost. Should three or even possibly four bids be lost, many of the teams on the bubble will really be feeling the heat.

The next thing to analyze is how much would a first round loss potentially hurt a team.

Texas A&M comes in on quite a roll, having won eight of its last 11 games including two wins over Texas Tech, their first round opponent. Their final game of the year, a dominant win over a very good Missouri team really should have solidified a bid. A first-round loss to Texas Tech would be the first RPI 100+ loss for A&M this year, and while it wouldn’t be good it wouldn’t exactly kill the Aggies in comparison to other bubble teams. Their record against Division I teams would stand at 22-9, and I think that they would still have a very compelling case for an at-large. Verdict: Safe barring absolute disaster.

Oklahoma State has also made most of the right moves down the stretch, winning seven of its last 11 games. While lacking a marquee win over any of the top 3 teams in the conference, Oklahoma State’s worst loss of the season was on the road to the No. 73 RPI team (Baylor). The Cowboys also have a strong record against weaker opposition that very few teams in the nation can also claim. They have already blown out Iowa State this year and figure to do the same in the conference tourney. An unexpected upset though would leave them 20-11, and they will finally have a glaring loss with no signature win to match it. Still, with an RPI that likely would still be in the 30s, Oklahoma State would probably not have to worry too much. Verdict: Safe but don’t make the committee make a decision.

Texas is a team that came into the season with Final Four dreams, but now the Longhorns will have to pull off a few major upsets to avoid early-exit nightmares. Their offense has been the major issues, with D.J. Augustine’s departure after last season proving to be much more damaging than Kevin Durant’s exit the season before. But despite having 10 losses, the Longhorns also have wins against UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin and Oklahoma. You’ll notice that three of those wins came before Christmas as Texas has regressed in conference. The Feb. 21 win over Oklahoma — despite Griffin’s early injury — gave Texas its final statement win, one that even a first-round loss to Colorado can’t erase. Verdict: Quality wins make Texas safer than even OSU or A&M.

Handicapping the field: The form team is clearly Kansas, a fact mitigated only slightly by the tournament being played in Oklahoma City. The Jayhawks went 14-2 in conference, including a convincing win at Griffin-less Oklahoma and a stunningly complete victory over Missouri in Lawrence. Bill Self’s team bounced back from a puzzling defeat at Texas Tech with an efficient second-half in a regular season-ending win over Texas. Nebraska is the potential quarterfinal opponent, and the Cornhuskers gave Kansas trouble in Lincoln before a six-point loss. KU took the matchup in Lawrence easily. A tournament title would give Kansas an outside shot at a No. 1 seed.

Despite its shaky form, Oklahoma still has to be the second choice, especially since OSU is one of the better matchups Oklahoma could hope for in the quarters, and that’s who the Sooners are likely to get. The small Cowboys did give Oklahoma problems in Saturday’s matchup in Norman, but Oklahoma figures to take advantage of its significant size advantage. A semifinal matchup with either Missouri or Texas A&M could spell trouble, though. Mizzou beat OU just a week ago, and A&M played OU close twice when the Sooners were playing their best ball. The likely A&M-Mizzou quarterfinal matchup would be a replay of the Aggies’ 10-point victory in College Station on Saturday. The other semifinal is likely to feature Kansas against either K-State or Texas, two teams that couldn’t hang with the Jayhawks for 40 minutes this season.

After OU, I’d put Missouri close behind and then a gap to Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State and Kansas State as the next choices in that order.