Printable Version of Bracket »

Bracketing challenges: One of the toughest decisions in this bracket actually came all the way down on the No. 5 seed line, where I had one more team I wanted to put in than spots to fill. I was tempted to drop Marquette to a No. 6 seed after two straight losses and without Dominic James, but, in the end, I moved Florida State to the top of the No. 6 seed line. FSU has the profile of a higher seed, but, if there is a team near the top of the field that I would pick to drop a line or two from its earned seed, it might be FSU for its general lack of buzz. That’s obviously very subjective.

Bubble: The bubble continues to be a source of great consternation. Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida all had disappointing losses — either at home or to a team lower in the standings. The loss drops Kentucky further out and moves South Carolina and Florida closer to the cut line, but I’m keeping them in for now. The SEC is the conference I’m most interested in seeing how the committee brackets.

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin’s win over Michigan solidifies the Badgers’ bid, a fabulous accomplishment after that six-game losing streak in January. The loss does, however, drop the Wolverines just out of the field, making the game at Minnesota close to a must-win for Michigan. Penn State eeked out a win over Indiana at home on Saturday to move to 9-7 in conference. The Nittany Lions were not impressive in the win, but they did win, and their conference profile helps them get the nod over Michigan.

The Big East saw two teams help their cases and one hurt its over the weekend. Georgetown had to have the win at Villanova and got it to get to 6-10 in conference. The Hoyas probably still need four more wins in succession to get a bid. Providence inches to second-to-last out after a win at Rutgers. The Friars’ conference record improves to 10-7 but they still have just five of their 18 wins against the top 100. This may not be the case on Selection Sunday, but right now, there are no at-large teams in my projection with fewer than six top-100 wins. That’s definitely not a hard-and-fast rule, but it is a trend to note. PC looks best of the teams with five, but the RPI at 68 does not help either. Consider me fascinated by how some projectors have Notre Dame in the field right now.

The Pac-10 once looked like it had a shot to send six teams to the Dance, but now four appears to be a possibility. USC may have played itself out of an at-large bid by getting swept in NorCal this weekend. The loss at Stanford, in which the Trojans led for most of the game’s first 25 minutes was particularly distressing — not that the overtime loss in Berkeley was cathartic. Arizona also got swept but started the weekend in a much better position than USC. The Cats will likely have to sweep the NorCal teams at home or do some damage in the Pac-10 Tournament to get in.

Oklahoma State and Texas A&M continue to win, making the Big 12 look fairly comfortable at six teams, although I admit that I am rosier on OSU and A&M’s prospects than many projectors. Kansas State, meanwhile, has won nine of 11 and moved to 8-6 in conference with a win over Nebraska. Frank Martin’s team now heads to Oklahoma State on Tuesday needing that win to vault its RPI into the low 60s.

In the ACC, Virginia Tech just missed on a chance to knock off Duke on Saturday in Blacksburg. VT has two more shots — home against UNC and at FSU — to get to .500 in conference. Maryland went a long way toward securing its bid with a win at NC State on Sunday night. Greivis Vasquez was huge again, making sure the Terps didn’t squander the lead they held for most of the game. Miami moves just into the field despite not playing, as teams around the Canes fell. Frank Haith’s team is similar in profile to Georgetown but, unlike GU, has a chance to get back to .500 in conference — and Miami better do so.

Among mid-majors, Saint Mary’s continues to be a hot topic among projectors. With Patty Mills’ return date still unknown and the West Coast Conference starting on Friday, the committee will be hard-pressed to assume the stud point guard will be at full strength for the start of the NCAAs. If Mills doesn’t both return and play at full-strength in the West Coast Conference Tournament, I believe SMC will need to win the tournament to make the Dance. Elsewhere, Dayton got the win it needed at home to Temple on Saturday, and Rhode Island squeezed out a victory at Duquesne. UAB, San Diego State and New Mexico all won on the road to hang around the discussion.

Moving in: Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Penn State

Moving in as Automatics: Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Bowling Green (Mid-American), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Moving out: Michigan, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati

Moving out as Automatics: Long Beach State (Big West), Akron (Mid-American), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

ACC: The last week of ACC play always culminates with Duke-UNC, but there are several games in the mid-week that will have vast implications for the rest of March. On Tuesday, Maryland hosts Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have just one road win in its last five games outside of Lawrence Joel Coliseum, and that was in Virginia on Saturday. If Maryland does continue Dino Gaudio’s team’s road woes, the Terps could punch their bid. If Wake wins, Maryland will surely need to win at Virginia and then take its first-round ACC Tournament game — likely against NC State — to get in. Also on Tuesday, Florida State, which actually has an outside shot at a share of the ACC title, hopes to catch Duke looking ahead when the ‘Noles head to Cameron. An FSU win would put both teams at 10-5 in conference entering the weekend’s games.

On Wednesday, VaTech welcomes North Carolina to Cassell Coliseum. The last time the two teams met in Blacksburg, the Hokies defeated the Tar Heels, 94-88, on Jan. 13, 2007. If Virginia Tech does that again, then it will have a stronger case at a bid. Seth Greenburg’s team is one of those that passes the highly subjective “eye” test, because they just seem to play like an NCAA Tournament team on most nights. But VT’s case is built on three road wins — at Wake, Miami and Clemson — good results all, but they shouldn’t completely offset losses to Seton Hall, Georgia and Virginia. If you’re going to credit a team with its quality wins, you have deduct for its bad losses — and penalize for weak non-conference scheduling and a .500 conference record.

Miami is the other team fighting with Maryland and Virginia Tech for the one or two bids still not claimed out of the ACC. The Hurricanes have played the nation’s toughest conference schedule, but that is lightening up at the right time. Miami won at Virginia last week and travels to Georgia Tech on Wednesday before hosting NC State on Saturday. Win those two and the first-round ACC Tournament game, and the ‘Canes probably seal their bid. There’s a good chance that Virginia Tech and Miami will meet in an 8/9 game at the ACC Tournament in a pseudo-elimination contest.

Bid Breakdown:

North Carolina (No. 1)
Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 3)
Clemson (No. 5)
Florida State (No. 6)
Boston College (No. 8 )
Maryland (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Miami (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (third-to-last out)

Big East: If what I project — eight bids from the ACC, just seven from the Big East — actually happens on Selection Sunday, there will be plenty of consternation from Big East folks. But there are still two weeks left, and it seems likely that the Big East will get its eighth bid — and perhaps a ninth — depending on how things shake out between now and then.

The first part of that shaking-out process comes Monday night in South Bend. If Notre Dame is to avoid falling from No. 7 in the nation to out of the NCAA Tournament, it will need to defeat Villanova. The Irish have looked stronger over the last three weeks, blowing out Louisville, winning at Providence by 19 and sticking with Connecticut in Storrs down to the final minutes. But, like Miami, Notre Dame needs to get to .500 in conference to have a decent shot entering the Big East Tournament. Both of its remaining games are at home with Villanova likely to prove a tougher test than St. John’s on Friday. ND may be catching Nova at the right time, though, as the Cats have been out of form in the last week.

On Tuesday, Cincinnati travels to South Florida fresh off the Bearcats’ 24-point defeat at Syracuse on Sunday. UC has a couple of winnable but dangerous games to end the season with the trip to USF on Tuesday followed by a home date with Seton Hall on Saturday. Win both of those and the Bearcats will enter the Big East Tournament in need of a quarterfinal appearance to have a strong case. Also on Tuesday, Georgetown travels to Carnesecca Arena to play St. John’s. The Hoyas played without much skill but with plenty of desperation in Saturday’s win against Villanova, and they can’t look past a Red Storm team that has played better over the last couple of weeks. That the game is at Carnesecca rather than MSG likely keeps away the Georgetown fans who would have turned the Garden into Georgetown North. If the Hoyas can get past this Red hurdle, it should be able to manage a win against hapless DePaul to finish at 8-10 and keep hope alive.

The big matchup on Wednesday is Marquette’s trip to Pittsburgh. The Golden Eagles have been highly competitive in the nearly two games since Dominic James went down, but they have no wins to show for it. Pulling off the upset at Petersen would put to rest any notion that Marquette should be penalized a seed or two for losing its senior point guard.

On Thursday night, Providence may be able to seal a bid with a win at Villanova. That win would give Providence its third straight victory and a second against a highly-rated opponent in 10 days. It would also put Providence at 11-7, a conference record that might be good enough for a No. 6 seed in the Big East Tournament. A win at Nova plus a first-round Big East Tourney win would assure the Friars of a bid, but even just getting one of those will make the committee give Providence a long look.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 1)
Louisville (No. 3)
Villanova (No. 3)
Marquette (No. 5)
Syracuse (No. 6)
West Virginia (No. 6)
Providence (second-to-last out)
Cincinnati (fourth-to-last out)
Georgetown (12th-to-last out)
Notre Dame (16th-to-last out)

Big Ten: Ohio State is a team that has danced just outside of the bubble’s periphery for most of the season, but with an 8-8 conference record and just 18 wins overall, the Buckeyes still have plenty of work to do. That work continues on Tuesday in Iowa City, where the Hawkeyes have previously knocked off Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Win that game and get the one at home to Northwestern on Sunday, and OSU can breathe more easily. Split those two and Thad Matta’s team goes to Indianapolis with some work to do at the Big Ten Tournament.

I’m surprised to see that a certain notable projector has Minnesota out of his field at this writing. At 19-8 and 8-8 in conference, Minnesota doesn’t have an ironclad case, but it’s as strong as Ohio State’s and stronger than Penn State’s and Michigan’s. That being said, the Gophers face two huge home games this week, starting Wednesday against Wisconsin. If they can defeat Wisconsin and then Michigan on Saturday, the Gophers — like OSU in a similar scenario — should feel safe. Anything short of a 2-0 finish will mean that at-large security will have to wait for Indy. Michigan will surely have to win that game in Minnesota to keep its hopes alive.

Penn State has an interesting week that begins on Thursday with a home game against Illinois, the victim of Penn State’s 38-33 brickfest two weeks ago (actually, anyone who watched the game was probably victimized more). Despite entering the week a game ahead of Minnesota and Ohio State in the standings, Penn State is — in my eyes — behind those teams in terms of NCAA qualification. So, just like those two, a pair of wins would be necessary to lock up a bid.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Illinois (No. 4)
Purdue (No. 4)
Wisconsin (No. 8 )
Minnesota (No. 10, ninth-to-last in)
Ohio State (No. 11, seventh-to-last in)
Michigan (No. 11, last out)

Big 12: Texas isn’t really in much better position that Oklahoma State, a team consistently listed on the bubble. The Longhorns have more marquee wins but have not played as well against the teams they should beat. A home game against Baylor represents one of those games Texas should win, and a loss would actually put Texas’ at-large hopes in jeopardy. Keep in mind that Texas’ last game is at Kansas. The Longhorns don’t want to slip to 8-8 in conference and give the committee a reason to keep them out. The Bears, once ranked, are probably still four wins away from the NCAA field.

Projectors have Oklahoma State all over the map — from safely in to right on the bubble — but the win over Texas now gives Travis Ford’s team its fifth straight conference win and puts them closer to “safely in” than to “right on the bubble.” If OSU can split its final two games — home against K-State on Tuesday and at Oklahoma — it should feel confident. Kansas State must continue to win. A victory in Stillwater would be the Wildcats’ ninth in conference with a home game against Colorado ahead on Saturday. Making the field as an at-large is a zero-sum game with every bid coming at the expense of another. In that sense, K-State probably needs to squirm ahead of Oklahoma State or Texas A&M, as it’s hard to imagine the Big 12 getting seven bids this season.

Texas A&M heads to Colorado on Wednesday, and a win would be the Aggies’ 21st against Division I teams. Mark Turgeon’s team has to have the game in Boulder and likely one other — either at home against Missouri or the first-round Big 12 Tournament game — to feel safely in. The Aggies are winners of four straight to get to .500 in conference. Also on Wednesday, Oklahoma travels to Missouri for one of the most exciting matchups of the conference schedule. With Kansas at Texas Tech that night, a Sooners loss would likely clinch the outright league title for the Jayhawks.

Bid Breakdown:

Oklahoma (No. 1)
Kansas (No. 2)
Missouri (No. 4)
Texas (No. 8 )
Oklahoma State (No. 9)
Texas A&M (No. 10, 10th-to-last in)
Kansas State (sixth-to-last out)

Pac-10: When Arizona was romping its way to a 12-point win over UCLA 16 days ago, the Wildcats appeared to be in great shape, but three losses later and it’s danger time for Russ Pennell’s team. The home game with Cal on Thursday becomes the biggest game of the season. Cal controlled the second half in a 14-point win over Arizona in the teams’ first meeting in Berkeley. If Arizona doesn’t manage to sweep this weekend, it will — and this is a recurring theme — head to its conference tournament with plenty of work to do.

USC absolutely could not afford to lose at Stanford on Saturday, and the Trojans actually held the lead for much of the game before a second-half collapse led to a 12-point loss. Tim Floyd now has to sweep the Oregon schools this week — starting with Oregon on Thursday — and win two more games in the Pac-10 Tournament to have a shot at a bid.

Washington can sew up the Pac-10 regular-season title with a win at home against Washington State on Saturday, but the Cougars may be playing the best ball in the league right now, so a win is certainly not guaranteed. The only team that can catch the Huskies is UCLA, who — like USC — hosts Oregon State and Oregon this weekend. It’s unlikely UCLA will lose either of those games, so UW best defeat WSU or the conference title is likely to be split.

Bid Breakdown:

Washington (No. 3)
UCLA (No. 5)
Arizona State (No. 7)
California (No. 8 )
Arizona (No. 12, second-to-last in)
Southern Cal (19th-to-last out)

SEC: The three SEC teams closest to the bubble all lost this weekend, and the committee now has some very tough decisions to make. LSU is a lock and Tennessee is likely in with a win in either of its last two games, but the other three teams fighting for bids — Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky — are at the committee’s mercy barring a strong finish. Wednesday is a big day for Florida, which travels to Starkville to play Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are losers of five of six, but two were in double-overtime, and Rick Stansbury’s team is typically strong at home. That same night, Kentucky hosts Georgia, which should be an easy win for a Wildcats team in need of one. That sets up Saturday’s matchup in Gainesville between Kentucky and Florida. It’s hard to imagine the loser of that game making the NCAAs without a deep SEC Tournament run.

On Thursday, Tennessee will try to do to South Carolina what it did to Florida when the Vols travel to Columbia. South Carolina was completely outplayed in a 13-point loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday just days after the strong performance against Kentucky last week. With a trip to Georgia on Saturday, a 2-0 week should get Darrin Horn’s team in.

Another team to keep an eye on is Auburn, which has won six of eight after blowing out MSU by 18 in Starkville on Saturday. That 78 RPI is an eyesore, but a win at Alabama followed by a home win over the Tigers would get them to 20 wins entering the conference tournament. A run to the SEC final might get Auburn in.

Bid Breakdown:

LSU (No. 4)
Tennessee (No. 8 )
South Carolina (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Florida (No. 12, fourth-to-last in)
Kentucky (fifth-to-last out)
Auburn (15th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: This is probably a good time to discuss the mid-major conference tournaments that could eat up at-large bids.

The conference most likely to see an upset of its top team is the Horizon League, where teams like Wisconsin-Green Bay, Cleveland State and Wright State all have great chances to knock off Butler. CSU was very close to pulling the upset at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Saturday but came up short. Butler would certainly be in regardless of its performance in the conference tournament.

Next is the Atlantic 10, which is slightly less likely to eat up an extra bid, because it’s already projected to get two. The A-10 has made a habit of seeing its favorite get knocked off and another team grab the automatic. In the last three years, Xavier (2006), George Washington (2007) and Temple (2008) all won the conference tournament having entered it without a bid in hand. This year, Temple and Rhode Island have very good chances to make a run to the title, especially since both are likely to get first-round byes — the Rams and Owls also have shots at at-larges. St. Joe’s, Duquesne and La Salle also have teams good enough to come away with the automatic bid.

Another dangerous tournament is the West Coast Conference Tourney, which saw San Diego eat up a bid with a title last season. This year, Gonzaga is the only team safely in the field. Saint Mary’s has the specter of trying to win the title or prove Patty Mills is healthy or both. With or without a full-strength Mills, the Gaels could win the title. With wins over Washington and SMC, Portland is clearly good enough to be this year’s San Diego. Santa Clara is another scary team.

Memphis has been kind to bubble teams in recent seasons, winning three straight Conference USA titles with none of those games decided by single digits. The conference, however, is as strong as its been since its reformation before the 2005-06 season. UAB and Tulsa are teams that can clearly contend with the Tigers in one game on a neutral court, but this tournament is at the FedEx Forum in Memphis. Houston and UTEP are also strong enough to knock off the Tigers and open up another bid for the C-USA.

The Mountain West Conference is likely to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament, but two other teams — New Mexico and San Diego State — are good enough to win the conference tournament. The Lobos are 10-4 in conference and — like the Aztecs — still have an outside shot at an at-large bid. Utah and BYU are the teams you want to root for in this tournament, if you are the fan of a bubble team. UNLV, which is hosting the event, is right on the cut line.

Some other conferences — Southern (Davidson), WAC (Utah State), Missouri Valley (Creighton) and MAAC (Siena) — have teams with a decent shot at an at-large berth with a loss in the conference tournament. Creighton and Utah State appear to be the most likely to be knocked off, since their leagues are stronger. I’m not convinced that any of these teams — even Davidson — is an at-large lock.

Bid Breakdown:

Memphis (No. 2)
Xavier (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Utah (No. 7)
Brigham Young (No. 7)
Butler (No. 7)
Utah State (No. 9)
Dayton (No. 9)
Creighton (No. 10)
Siena (No. 11)
UNLV (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Davidson (No. 12)
Rhode Island (seventh-to-last out)
Saint Mary’s (eighth-to-last out)
San Diego State (ninth-to-last out)
UAB (10th-to-last out)
New Mexico (11th-to-last out)
Tulsa (13th-to-last out)
Northern Iowa (14th-to-last out)
Illinois State (17th-to-last out)
Wisconsin-Green Bay (18th-to-last out)
Niagara (19th-to-last out)