Edit: I’ve made a couple of small changes with the bracket that put it better in line with bracketing principles. 1) I made the mistake of placing Dayton in a Dayton regional, which obviously can’t happen. 2) I also decided that I’d be better off forcing a change in regional assignments to avoid having the “Opening Round” game winner play on Thursday. To resolve both issues, I switched Pittsburgh’s pod to Dayton and Louisville’s pod to Philadelphia. I’ve also moved Princeton opposite Connecticut and the “Opening Round” game winner opposite Pittsburgh. These principles become more crucial when we are looking at the final brackets and aren’t as essential in February, but it’s still good to go by the book right now.

Bracketing challenges: There were a few separate challenges in compiling this bracket, which was perhaps the most difficult of the season for me so far, since there was so much movement. The first challenge was placing the eight ACC teams, since six of them fell on seed lines that are on the same side of a bracket. That caused me to move Boston College up one and Virginia Tech down one from each team’s true seed line.

The second challenge was due to the many losses that teams in the field suffered this week, including several surprising ones — either because of the margin or the opponent. This is something that we’ll get into in greater depth as we do the conference breakdowns, but I’ll just point out a few of the specific challenges that this created. Marquette’s loss to USF dropped the Golden Eagles into a position where they were vying with UCLA for the last No. 3 seed. How far does one move a team down when it losses a close game to a far inferior team on the road? Marquette won out over UCLA on this one. Another was Tennessee’s narrow loss to Auburn, which dropped the Vols to the No. 8 seed line, a line that also includes Texas and Syracuse, two teams that also lost and were in poor form on Saturday. Gonzaga’s 18-point loss at home to Memphis was another example of a team for which it was difficult to determine a true seed after a bad loss.

The third challenge was with teams near the at-large cut line who lost to superior teams on the road. Oklahoma State lost at Kansas and Michigan lost at Connecticut, both falling out of the bracket. Their demise wasn’t so much punishment for losing to good teams on the road but simply a result of being so close to the cut line and seeing other teams — notably Cincinnati, Wisconsin and Kansas State — fly by with good wins.

Moving in: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Arizona

Moving in as Automatics: Princeton (Ivy), Long Beach State (Big West), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun)

Moving out: Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Baylor

Moving out as Automatics: Cornell (Ivy), Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

The top four lines:

Moving up: Michigan State (3 → 2), Wake Forest (3 → 2), Memphis (4 → 3), Villanova (5 → 4)

Moving down: Clemson (2 → 3), Marquette (2 → 3), Xavier (3 → 4), Gonzaga (4 → 6)

With all of the surprisingly results this weekend, this conference breakdown will focus on which two results in each league had the most impact on the field.

ACC: Florida State’s win at Clemson is the biggest (positive) moment yet in Leonard Hamilton’s in his seven-year quest to bring FSU back to the NCAA Tournament. With an RPI of 19 and an 18-5 record, it will take a not-unprecedented collapse, but a collapse nonetheless, for Florida State to miss the field. In a similar position in February 2007, the ‘Noles lost five straight and eventually just missed the field with a 20-12 (7-9) record. Clemson’s loss was a step back after the demolition of Duke on Wednesday, and it drops the Tigers to a No. 3 seed.

There really wasn’t another result that had a large impact on the bracket, although Virginia Tech’s overtime win at home against North Carolina State likely kept the Hokies in the field. Duke’s win over Miami was a terrific game, but it didn’t affect either team’s standing very much. Like the one in Blacksburg, had that result been reversed, it would have made a big impact. Maryland’s one point win at Georgia Tech keeps the Terps in the discussion.

Bid Breakdown:

North Carolina (No. 1)
Duke (No. 2)
Wake Forest (No. 2)
Clemson (No. 3)
Florida State (No. 6)
Miami (Fla.) (No. 9)
Boston College (No. 10, moved to No. 9 for bracket balancing; ninth-to-last in)
Virginia Tech (No. 11, fifth-to-last in)
Maryland (12th-to-last out)

Big East: Friday night delivered a shocker in Tampa, as the Bulls knocked off the Big East’s last undefeated team in conference, toppling Marquette, 57-56. With an RPI of 138 even after the loss, USF’s win is a stinging result for Marquette. Teams like Seton Hall and South Florida are actually pretty decent, but both had enough poor results out of conference (though Seton Hall had a couple good ones to) that any loss to those teams is damaging while wins hardly help. This is the time when a league pays the piper for poor play out of conference, and the Big East certainly underachieved out of league play, especially at the bottom. That’s why this loss drops MU to the bottom of the No. 3 seed line. The Eagles now travel to Villanova for a rematch of both teams’ conference opener — won by Marquette — with positioning on the No. 3, 4 and 5 seed lines at stake.

Cincinnati’s defeat of Georgetown in D.C. was the culmination of a long decline for the Hoyas, who have now lost five of six, with just a home win against Rutgers to the good. This was supposed to be the easy part of Georgetown’s conference schedule with five games against teams that — with the exception of Marquette — weren’t in the conference’s top nine entering the season. A record of 3-2 was considered the minimum expectation, which is why the 1-4 result drops Georgetown from the field. The Bearcats have now won six of eight after starting league play 0-3. The schedule now brings Saint John’s to the Queen City before consecutive Saturday tests against Pitt and Louisville. An NCAA Tournament berth is now a real possibility for Mick Cronin’s club if it can get to 10-8 in league play.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 1)
Louisville (No. 2)
Marquette (No. 4)
Villanova (No. 4)
West Virginia (No. 7)
Syracuse (No. 8 )
Cincinnati (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
Georgetown (third-to-last out)
Providence (14th-to-last out)

Big Ten: For the second consecutive projection, we see a Big Ten two-step. Last time, Michigan moved in while Penn State moved out. This time, Wisconsin used a road win at Penn State to jump past Michigan and into the field. The Badgers are now within a game of .500 in conference with three games in which they’ll be favored — vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State, at Indiana — coming up. For Penn State, this home game was one the Nittany Lions needed dearly, and, with an RPI in the low-80s, their NCAA Tournament pedigree is in serious doubt.

Nearly every other game had some sort of impact. Michigan State’s blowout win of Indiana enabled the Spartans to take advantage of losses above them to move to a No. 2. Ohio State’s win over Minnesota made the Buckeyes a quite secure at-large team as a No. 5 seed. Illinois’ blowout win over Purdue — again without Robbie Hummel — meant the Illini flip-flopped with Purdue at No. 5 and No. 6. Finally, Northwestern’s narrow road loss to Iowa doesn’t kill the Wildcats’ NCAA chances, but makes them harder to fathom.

Bid Breakdown:

Michigan State (No. 2)
Illinois (No. 5)
Ohio State (No. 5)
Purdue (No. 6)
Minnesota (No. 8 )
Wisconsin (No. 12, third-to-last in)
Michigan (fourth-to-last out)
Penn State (11th-to-last out)
Northwestern (15th-to-last out)

Big 12: By far the most impactful game was in College Station, where K-State picked up its fifth straight win, this one by five over Texas A&M. It was a very similar result to Wisconsin’s at Penn State. Similarly, it leaped the Wildcats up the board and the Aggies far down it. A&M will now need to take advantage of upcoming games against struggling teams — at Baylor, vs. Texas — to get back near the cut line. K-State has Tech at home and Kansas at home. A sweep would make K-State a comfortable at-large team.

Three other results had major impact. Nebraska toppled Texas in Lincoln, another strike against the Longhorns, who slip to a No. 8 seed. On the other hand, Doc Sadler’s team is now within sight of the at-large cut line. Baylor stubbed its toe in Lubbock with a loss to Texas Tech. Scott Drew’s team continues to struggle and is now in serious danger of missing out on the NCAAs. Elsewhere, Oklahoma State wasn’t able to come up with a signature win in Lawrence, as the Jayhawks remained undefeated in conference. OSU now heads to a hurting Texas in a game for which both teams will be desperate.

Bid Breakdown:

Oklahoma (No. 1)
Kansas (No. 3)
Missouri (No. 4)
Texas (No. 8 )
Kansas State (No. 11, sixth-to-last in)
Nebraska (seventh-to-last out)
Texas A&M (ninth-to-last out)
Baylor (10th-to-last out)

Pac-10: There wasn’t a whole lot to look at in the Pac-10 this weekend. What was supposed to happen happened — a departure from the previous weekend. Arizona’s win over Oregon wasn’t a surprise, but it did do enough to get the rolling Wildcats — winners of five straight — into the field, if barely. The other interesting result was Washington’s win at Stanford, the Huskies’ first victory at Maples Pavilion since 1994 and one that keeps Lorenzo Romar’s team just one-half game back of UCLA in the conference standings. The Pac-10 now has six teams in the field, though I still think five is the most likely result in March.

Bid Breakdown:

UCLA (No. 3)
Washington (No. 5)
California (No. 6)
Arizona State (No. 7)
Southern California (No. 11, fourth-to-last in)
Arizona (No. 12, last in)

SEC: Just when Tennessee appeared to start playing the kind of basketball we expected from the Vols all year, they go and lose at Auburn. Like Marquette’s defeat at USF, it was just a one-point road loss, but it shows that Tennessee is perhaps not quite as ready as I thought to take the league’s mantle.

Another result of note in a drab SEC weekend — Florida and Kentucky were both off — was in Starkville, where Mississippi State took care of Arkansas. The Bulldogs are now 6-2 in conference play, but they have an RPI of 79 and exactly zero wins against top-50 teams, only playing one. MSU might need a 12-4 conference record to get in the field.

Bid Breakdown:

Florida (No. 6)
LSU (No. 7)
Tennessee (No. 8 )
South Carolina (No. 9, moved to No. 10 for bracket balancing, 10th-to-last in)
Kentucky (fifth-to-last out)
Mississippi State (16th-to-last out)

Mid-Majors: This was a weekend for losses by top teams in many mid-major leagues, and the most notable was in a matchup of the nation’s best-known mid-majors — Memphis and Gonzaga. The Tigers showed how far they have come since November and played well enough to earn a No. 3 seed. Gonzaga plummeted to a No. 6 and look nothing like the team that appeared best fit to defeat UNC in early December.

Elsewhere, the losses just kept on coming — Xavier to Duquesne, Dayton to Charlotte, Davidson to College of Charleston, Siena to Rider, Saint Mary’s to Santa Clara. The team I’m interested in most is Davidson, which only has one quality win — over a West Virginia team without Alex Ruoff. Davidson didn’t beat anyone in the RPI top-100 entering the NCAAs last year but did go undefeated in conference and received a No. 10 seed. This team, to me, is a No. 12-ish seed, but I’m keeping the Wildcats at a No. 10 for now. Creighton’s win over Northern Iowa puts the Bluejays in a position to nab a second bid for the Valley, depending on how things break in the MVC Tournament.

Bid Breakdown:

Memphis (No. 3)
Xavier (No. 4)
Butler (No. 5)
Gonzaga (No. 6)
Utah State (No. 9)
Utah (No. 9)
Brigham Young (No. 10, eighth-to-last in)
Davidson (No. 10)
Dayton (No. 10, seventh-to-last in)
San Diego State (No. 11)
Siena (No. 12)
Creighton (first out)
UNLV (sixth-to-last out)
UAB (eighth-to-last out)
Tulsa (12th-to-last out)
New Mexico (17th-to-last out)
Temple (18th-to-last out)
Wisconsin-Green Bay (19th-to-last out)
Rhode Island (20th-to-last out)

Portions of this story were republished at SNY.tv.